I’m excited to share the current Experian Commercial Pulse Report with you. I have the opportunity each week to analyze data on the millions of U.S. small businesses in Experian’s database and discover actionable insights that benefit our clients. Making these discoveries is rewarding work, and we utilize these insights to guide our recommendations. I thought I would share what I am watching through Experian’s bi-weekly Commercial Pulse Report (just bookmark the link; we will update it on a bi-weekly basis).
This week’s report contains some compelling insight into commercial fraud. In 2002, a Trustpair Institute for Finance & Management survey reported 56% of businesses had reported some sort of fraud attempt, in 2023 the survey shows 96% of businesses reporting fraud attempts.
What I’m watching:
- The growing financial fraud problem:
- Consumers lost a staggering $10 billion to fraud in 2022, marking a 14% increase from 2021.
- Already, a shocking 5 billion records were found on the dark web this year, matching the 2023 total.
- The economy grew 2.8% in Q2.
- The Fed leaves interest rates flat but leaves the door open for a potential cut at the September meeting.
That’s a quick take – Download the latest report.
Experian Commercial Pulse explores how AI is changing credit risk with a fascinating study of high-impact AI industries.
Women-Owned Small Businesses: Growth, Credit Behavior, and Risk Implications for Lenders A fast-growing segment, women-owned businesses bring unique credit dynamics shaped by size, lifecycle, and access to capital. Understanding these differences is key to improving risk accuracy and capturing growth. This week, the Commercial Pulse Report takes a closer look at Women-owned small businesses, and there's a lot to be excited about. Watch The Commercial Pulse Update Women-owned businesses are no longer a niche segment—they are a defining force in the evolution of the U.S. small business landscape. Today, they account for nearly half of all new business formations and generate approximately $2.7 trillion in annual revenue. For Chief Risk Officers and credit risk teams, this growth presents both opportunity and complexity. The structural and behavioral differences of women-owned businesses introduce new considerations for underwriting, portfolio management, and long-term risk strategy. A Rapidly Expanding—but Structurally Distinct—Segment The growth trajectory of women-owned businesses is undeniable. In 2025 alone, women owned more than 14 million businesses in the U.S.—nearly double the total from two decades ago. However, this expansion is not simply a scaled version of traditional small business growth. Women-owned firms tend to be: More concentrated in service-oriented industries Smaller in size, with lower average revenue Earlier in their business lifecycle These characteristics matter from a risk perspective. Younger businesses inherently carry higher uncertainty, shorter credit histories, and less established operating resilience. For underwriting teams, this means traditional risk models—often calibrated on more mature firms—may underrepresent or misclassify risk in this segment. Credit Access and Capital Structure: A Different Funding Model One of the most important distinctions lies in how women-owned businesses access capital. Compared to male-owned businesses, women entrepreneurs: Seek less commercial credit overall Rely more heavily on personal networks such as friends and family Utilize credit cards and online lenders more frequently than traditional bank financing They also tend to have fewer commercial trade lines and lower credit limits. At first glance, this could be interpreted as weaker credit demand. In reality, it often reflects structural barriers to access, differences in borrowing preferences, and earlier-stage business profiles. For CROs, this raises a critical question:Are current underwriting frameworks capturing true risk—or simply reflecting historical access inequalities? Utilization and Discipline: A More Nuanced Risk Signal Despite lower credit limits and fewer trade lines, women-owned businesses exhibit similar credit utilization rates compared to male-owned businesses. This is a crucial insight. Equivalent utilization, despite constrained access to credit, suggests: Strong credit discipline Efficient use of available capital Potential unmet demand for additional financing From a risk modeling perspective, utilization alone may not be a sufficient differentiator. Instead, it should be evaluated alongside capacity constraints and growth intent. This creates an opportunity for lenders to refine segmentation strategies—identifying businesses that are not overextended, but rather underserved. Delinquency and Credit Performance: Stability with Key Gaps From a performance standpoint, the data offers a more balanced view. Delinquency rates between women- and male-owned businesses are comparable, indicating similar repayment behavior across segments. However, average commercial credit scores for women-owned businesses remain slightly lower. This gap is largely driven by: Shorter credit histories Fewer active trade lines Lower overall credit exposure Encouragingly, the credit score gap has begun to narrow in recent months. For risk leaders, this suggests that observed differences in credit scoring are less about elevated risk and more about data depth and credit maturity. This distinction is critical when designing underwriting policies that balance inclusion with risk controls. Generational Momentum and Future Portfolio Impact Another dynamic shaping this segment is generational. Among Millennials and Gen Z, women are now starting more businesses than men. This shift is driven by motivations such as: Flexibility and autonomy Desire for control over work schedules Pursuit of entrepreneurial independence For lenders, this signals that the influence of women-owned businesses will not only persist—but accelerate. As these younger businesses mature, they will transition into larger credit exposures, more complex financing needs, and deeper integration into commercial credit ecosystems. The decisions made today around underwriting, access, and segmentation will directly shape the future risk profile of portfolios. Implications for Risk Strategy and Underwriting For Chief Risk Officers and their teams, the rise of women-owned businesses presents a clear mandate: evolve risk frameworks to reflect a changing borrower base. Key considerations include: Reassessing underwriting models to account for thinner credit files and shorter business histories Incorporating alternative data to better evaluate early-stage businesses Differentiating between constrained access and true risk exposure Monitoring portfolio diversification as this segment grows in share Importantly, this is not simply a question of expanding access. It is about improving risk accuracy. Misinterpreting structural differences as elevated risk can lead to missed growth opportunities, while failing to account for lifecycle dynamics can introduce unintended exposure. Balancing Growth and Risk in a Changing Landscape Women-owned businesses represent a fast-growing, resilient, and evolving segment of the economy. They are reshaping patterns of credit demand, challenging traditional assumptions, and creating new opportunities for lenders. At the same time, they require a more nuanced approach to risk assessment—one that recognizes the interplay between business maturity, access to capital, and credit behavior. For CROs, the path forward is clear: leverage data, refine models, and align risk strategy with the realities of today’s small business landscape. Learn more ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
How Structural Shifts in Scale, Technology, and Customer Behavior Are Redefining Risk Leadership This week’s Experian Commercial Pulse report includes great insights on the banking industry, a sector that is not simply evolving, it's structurally transforming. The implications of banking transformation extend well beyond portfolio performance. Consolidation, digital acceleration, and aggressive investment in artificial intelligence are reshaping the competitive landscape and redefining risk management itself. Watch The Commercial Pulse Update While commercial credit performance remains relatively stable, the operating model of banking is changing quickly. The institutions that thrive in this environment will be those that modernize risk frameworks in parallel with ongoing structural change. This week's Pulse identified four major trends CRO's and risk teams should be watching closely. 1. Consolidation in the Banking Industry: Fewer Banks, Fewer Branches The number of FDIC-insured banks has declined to less than half of what it was in 2000. Decades of mergers and acquisitions, including several of the largest transactions occurring in just the past five years, have materially reshaped the competitive environment. At the same time, the physical footprint of banking has contracted. Total branch counts have fallen significantly from their 2008 peak, and branch availability continues to decline across many regions. For risk leaders, consolidation creates both opportunity and exposure. On one hand, scale can improve capital efficiency, risk diversification, and investment capacity in advanced analytics. Larger institutions may also benefit from deeper data pools and stronger enterprise risk infrastructures. On the other hand, concentration risk becomes more pronounced, geographically, sectorally, and operationally. As institutions grow through acquisition, integration risk, model harmonization challenges, and cultural alignment issues must be carefully managed. For CROs, consolidation is not just an industry headline, it is a structural variable influencing counterparty exposure, competitive pressure, and systemic interdependencies. 2. The Acceleration of Online Banking As physical branches decline, digital engagement has accelerated dramatically. In 2019, just over half of U.S. consumers used online banking. By 2025, that number rose to roughly 71%, and projections suggest it could approach 80% by 2029. Younger demographics in particular show a strong preference for online-only banking relationships, while older customers continue to rely more heavily on traditional channels. For small businesses, digital onboarding, online treasury management, mobile payments, and remote lending processes are no longer differentiators — they are expectations. For CROs, increased digital penetration changes the risk equation in several ways: Fraud vectors expand as digital interactions multiply. Identity verification and authentication controls become mission-critical. Real-time monitoring replaces periodic review. Data velocity increases, requiring scalable analytics infrastructure. Operational resilience also becomes more important. As customer engagement concentrates in digital channels, system uptime, cybersecurity, and third-party risk management move to the forefront of enterprise risk oversight. Digital adoption is not merely a distribution channel shift. It is a transformation in how risk manifests and must be measured. 3. Technology Trends: AI, Automation, and Real-Time Risk Intelligence Technology modernization has become central to competitive strategy across commercial banking. Artificial intelligence, machine learning, real-time fraud detection, and automated underwriting are moving from pilot programs into core production environments. Generative AI adoption in particular has accelerated rapidly, with nearly half of commercial banks now operating some form of GenAI solution in production. For a CRO, the opportunity is substantial. Advanced analytics can: Enhance early warning systems for credit deterioration. Improve fraud detection accuracy while reducing false positives. Refine borrower segmentation and pricing precision. Optimize collections prioritization and recovery strategies. Strengthen stress testing and scenario modeling capabilities. However, innovation introduces new forms of model risk. AI-driven decisioning must be explainable, auditable, and compliant with regulatory expectations. Governance frameworks must evolve to ensure transparency, fairness, and mitigating bias. Data lineage and model validation processes must remain rigorous even as deployment speeds increase. The challenge for risk leaders is achieving balance, leveraging technological advantage without compromising control discipline. 4. Investment in AI: Strategic Imperative, Not Experimentation AI investment in commercial banking is accelerating at a notable pace. Industry forecasts indicate that AI spending in the Americas banking sector could exceed $54 billion by 2028 — nearly tripling from 2024 levels. This level of capital allocation signals a fundamental shift: AI is no longer viewed as an incremental enhancement. It is considered foundational infrastructure. Executives report that AI initiatives are focused on: Cybersecurity enhancement Fraud detection and prevention Operational efficiency Customer engagement personalization Credit risk modeling improvement For CROs, this scale of investment demands disciplined oversight. Key considerations include: Are AI initiatives aligned with defined risk appetite statements? Is governance keeping pace with deployment velocity? Are internal teams sufficiently trained to interpret AI outputs? Is the institution prepared for heightened regulatory scrutiny around automated decisioning? The strategic sweet spot lies in controlled acceleration — modernizing the risk stack while reinforcing control frameworks. Final Perspective for CROs Commercial credit performance today remains relatively stable. Yet the true story in banking is not short-term performance, it is long-term transformation. We are operating in an environment defined by structural consolidation, digital-first customer behavior, rapid AI adoption, expanding data ecosystems, and increasing regulatory complexity. For Chief Risk Officers, the mandate is clear: safeguard portfolio quality while modernizing risk infrastructure. The institutions best positioned for sustainable growth will not simply extend capital efficiently, they will integrate advanced analytics, strengthen governance, and proactively manage emerging digital risks. Transformation is underway. The question is not whether it will continue. The question is whether risk organizations will lead it — or react to it. Learn more ✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis. ✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends. ✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow. Download the Commercial Pulse Report Visit Commercial Insights Hub Related Posts
