Welcome to our November 12th, 2024 Commercial Pulse Report preview!
Experian’s new Commercial Pulse Report highlights the economic trends shaping the retail landscape as we head into the holiday season. With 2.8% GDP growth in Q3 and steady unemployment at 4.1%, the economy shows resilience, yet retail businesses are navigating a mix of growth and caution in credit and spending trends.
This week as the holiday season gets under way, the team pulled together some interesting insights on the retail industry. With 2.8% GDP growth in Q3 and steady unemployment at 4.1%, the economy shows resilience, yet retail businesses are navigating a mix of growth and caution in credit and spending trends.
- Rising Credit Demand in Retail: Over the past year, commercial credit demand among retail businesses has surged by 25% as retailers boost inventory levels in anticipation of holiday sales. While demand is strong, businesses are finding that lending conditions are tighter than in previous years, especially in discretionary retail sectors.
- Lending Disparities Across Retail Sectors: Not all retailers benefit equally from this increased credit demand. Discretionary sectors like home goods are facing a drop in new commercial accounts and smaller loan sizes, reflecting a more cautious lending environment. Meanwhile, Consumer Electronics and Department Stores are seeing credit demand nearing pre-pandemic levels, indicating resilience in these areas.
- Higher Delinquency Rates Impacting Credit Scores: Rising financial pressures are pushing up delinquency rates, putting additional strain on commercial credit scores across the retail sector. This trend is a reminder for retailers to manage credit carefully, even as they position themselves for peak season sales.
- Slower Retail Sales Growth: Retail sales continue to grow but at a decelerating rate, with only 1.7% year-over-year growth from September 2023 to September 2024—a significant slowdown from previous years. Retailers are adjusting to a post-pandemic normalization as consumer demand steadies.
With both opportunities and challenges ahead, this report offers insights to help retailers navigate the season. For more, check out Experian’s Commercial Insights Hub to see how these trends may impact your business.
