Experian Commercial Pulse Report | 3/25/2025
Experian has released our March 25th Commercial Pulse Report. In addition to mixed economic conditions, we focus in on the growing problem of small business financial fraud.
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Macroeconomic Highlights
In February, inflation dipped to 2.8%, with core inflation hitting its lowest level since 2021. The Fed held interest rates steady, reflecting ongoing caution about the economic outlook. Unemployment remained stable at 4.1%, and rising wages helped sustain consumer spending. Retail sales saw a modest rebound, though year-over-year growth slowed, and consumer sentiment dropped 27% from last year. The Experian Small Business Index rose slightly to 41.5 but remains down from a year ago, as easing inflation and credit conditions offer cautious optimism for small business lending.
The Rising Threat of Small Business Financial Fraud
According to the latest Experian data, financial fraud against small businesses has increased by 70% since the start of the pandemic, costing billions annually. As fraud tactics become more sophisticated and digital channels continue to expand, the pressure on lenders and small businesses is mounting.
During the pandemic, e-commerce surged to 16.4% of total retail sales. Although it briefly declined post-pandemic, this share has returned to its peak by the end of 2024. This shift has dramatically increased the size of consumers’ digital footprints, making them more vulnerable to cybercrime. A staggering 8.8 billion records were found on the dark web in 2024 alone—more than double the amount reported in 2022.
Among the most concerning statistics from the report:
- 65% of financial institutions reported an increase in fraud incidents in 2024.
- 46% of small business loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud.
- 31% of small businesses experienced fraudulent lenders or scams during the lending process.
- AI-driven scams are projected to result in $40 billion in losses by 2027.
- 80% of fraud events now occur on digital channels such as online or mobile banking.
- 64% of institutions plan to boost their fraud prevention investments in 2025.
These figures illustrate just how pervasive and costly commercial fraud has become. Yet, there is reason for cautious optimism. Experian notes that while fraud levels remain elevated, there are signs that the trends are beginning to normalize compared to the extreme conditions seen during the peak of the pandemic. This includes a reduction in “bust-out” fraud—scenarios where a business intentionally takes on debt it has no intention of repaying.
Financial institutions are responding by investing in AI-powered analytics and enhanced fraud detection platforms. These tools are proving critical in detecting and intercepting fraudulent applications in real time. Additionally, more organizations are forming cross-sector partnerships and joining fraud consortia to share intelligence and improve collective defenses.
To stay ahead of the latest trends:
✔ Visit our Commercial Insights Hub for in-depth reports and expert analysis.
✔ Subscribe to our YouTube channel for regular updates on small business trends.
✔ Connect with your Experian account team to explore how data-driven insights can help your business grow.
Want to learn more? Download the full Commercial Pulse Report for March 25, 2025.
