Small Business Credit Insights

Welcome to our November 12th, 2024 Commercial Pulse Report preview! Experian’s new Commercial Pulse Report highlights the economic trends shaping the retail landscape as we head into the holiday season. With 2.8% GDP growth in Q3 and steady unemployment at 4.1%, the economy shows resilience, yet retail businesses are navigating a mix of growth and caution in credit and spending trends. Watch Our Commercial Pulse Update This week as the holiday season gets under way, the team pulled together some interesting insights on the retail industry. With 2.8% GDP growth in Q3 and steady unemployment at 4.1%, the economy shows resilience, yet retail businesses are navigating a mix of growth and caution in credit and spending trends. Rising Credit Demand in Retail: Over the past year, commercial credit demand among retail businesses has surged by 25% as retailers boost inventory levels in anticipation of holiday sales. While demand is strong, businesses are finding that lending conditions are tighter than in previous years, especially in discretionary retail sectors. Lending Disparities Across Retail Sectors: Not all retailers benefit equally from this increased credit demand. Discretionary sectors like home goods are facing a drop in new commercial accounts and smaller loan sizes, reflecting a more cautious lending environment. Meanwhile, Consumer Electronics and Department Stores are seeing credit demand nearing pre-pandemic levels, indicating resilience in these areas. Higher Delinquency Rates Impacting Credit Scores: Rising financial pressures are pushing up delinquency rates, putting additional strain on commercial credit scores across the retail sector. This trend is a reminder for retailers to manage credit carefully, even as they position themselves for peak season sales. Slower Retail Sales Growth: Retail sales continue to grow but at a decelerating rate, with only 1.7% year-over-year growth from September 2023 to September 2024—a significant slowdown from previous years. Retailers are adjusting to a post-pandemic normalization as consumer demand steadies. With both opportunities and challenges ahead, this report offers insights to help retailers navigate the season. For more, check out Experian’s Commercial Insights Hub to see how these trends may impact your business. Download Commercial Pulse Report Commercial Insights Hub

The Fall Beyond The Trends report offers a unique view into the challenges hitting small businesses, and how to navigate a cooling economy.

Download the Main Street Report for in-depth analysis on recent small business credit performance.

Get the latest insights on small business credit performance. Mark your calendars! Experian will discuss small business credit conditions when we present key findings found in the latest Main Street Report for Q2 2024 during the Quarterly Business Credit Review. Our lead presenter, Brodie Oldham, will share his take on the macroeconomic environment and then deep-dive into the Q2 Main Street Report and the most recent small business credit data and what it says about how small businesses are performing. We will close by addressing your questions. Why you should attend: Leading Experts on Commercial and Macro-Economic Trends Credit insights and trends on 30+ Million active businesses Industry Hot Topics Covered (Inclusive of Business Owner and Small Business Data) Commercial Insights you cannot get anywhere else Peer Insights with Interactive Polls (Participate) Discover and understand small business trends to make informed decisions Actionable takeaways based on recent credit performance

Experian Summer Beyond The Trends Report Now Available We are excited to announce the release of the Summer 2024 Beyond the Trends report. The report offers a unique view of the small business economy based on what we see in the data. With up-to-date information on over 33 million active businesses and how they perform from a credit standpoint, in this report, Experian shares insights and commentary on how economic conditions, public policy, and other factors might shape future small business performance. Here's our V.P. of Commercial Data Science, Brodie Oldham with his quick take. Overall, the sentiment among small businesses regarding growth is cautiously optimistic. Optimism Despite Challenges There is a general sense of optimism reflected in the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index, which has risen to 69.5. Additionally, 73% of small businesses expect higher revenues, and 46% plan to increase investments, indicating positive growth expectations despite facing persistent challenges such as inflation, worker shortages, and rising operational costs. Government Support and Initiatives Various government programs and initiatives are bolstering small business growth by improving access to capital and providing targeted support. These initiatives include the Investing in America Small Business Hub, expansion of Women’s Business Centers, and improvements in the 7(a) and 504 Loan Programs, all aimed at facilitating job creation, growth, and sustainability. Technological Adaptation The adoption of AI and other advanced technologies by small businesses is enhancing operational efficiency and cutting costs. A significant increase in the use of AI-driven systems, such as CRM and automated inventory management, indicates that small businesses are leveraging technology to drive growth and stay competitive. Resilience Amid Economic Pressures Despite facing economic headwinds like tighter credit conditions due to higher interest rates and ongoing supply chain disruptions, small businesses have shown resilience. They continue to navigate these challenges by employing innovative strategies and adapting to the evolving economic landscape. Download your copy of the latest report and check out more insights on small businesses on our Commercial Insights Hub where you can subscribe to updates. Download Beyond The Trends Report Commercial Insights Hub

Experian Main Street Report says strength in the economy pushes through inflation. Download for analysis on Q1 small business performance.

Join Experian for the Q1 2024 Quarterly Business Credit Review as we dive into quarterly small business credit trends June 4th at 10am PT.

The Beyond the Trends report highlights indicators which offer insights on labor, prices, commercial credit and economic conditions.

Download our latest Commercial Pulse Report for economic insights and a deep dive on reasons why so many startups fail in first 5 years.