Experian dashboard of PPP program helps lenders mitigate future first-party fraud risk The last round of stimulus for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) ran out of funds this week. The $953 billion stimulus program, designed to help businesses, self-employed workers, sole proprietors, nonprofit organizations, and tribal businesses continue paying their workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of emergency conditions and immediate concern to serve businesses in need, lenders relaxed vetting restrictions on PPP loan applicants. Also, they rushed to digitalize services to accommodate the massive influx of new PPP loan applications. Relaxed restrictions, high demand, and time sensitivity surrounding PPP loans created potential entry points for first-party fraud, or fraud committed by known customers (individuals and entities). Lenders looking to cross-sell or up-selling PPP client's new loan products should first understand the amount of first-party fraud exposure in their PPP portfolio. Understanding potential fraud levels will help avoid unnecessary reputational risk related to the new population of PPP-related commercial clients. Experian's Commercial Data Sciences team wanted to give lenders the ability to understand the amount of first-party fraud in their PPP portfolio. To start the conversation on the scope of fraud in the PPP program, Experian evaluated the publicly available SBA PPP loan data for the first round of PPP loans; these were public-only loans originated without a private guarantor. We anonymized and scored this dataset with Experian's newly developed Commercial First-party Fraud Score. The score measures the risk probability with a machine-learned algorithm to predict first-payment or early-stage defaults within seven months from account opening. Revealing elevated levels of fraud Scoring this public data revealed segments in some PPP lender portfolios with an elevated risk of first-party fraud, in some cases 10x to 20x riskier than the baseline. First-party fraud is a type of fraud where customers intentionally default on payments, either first-time payment or a payment sometime down the line. By examining the distribution of a lender's accounts as they fall within the score bands for first-party fraud risk, lenders can understand a projected dollar amount of balances to be charged off. They can also grasp the estimated dollar amount of losses per account or loss-prevention potential for the account if it had been reviewed (assuming reviewers catch 100% of fraud.) When dealing with first-party fraud, a lender's existing identity fraud prevention tools are typically unable to detect potential fraud. If underwriting relies on a point-in-time assessment, the lender would be blind to applicants' behaviors that may change after loan origination and fraud insights gained from evaluating accounts from other lenders. As a result, first-party fraud would be hidden in charge-offs, preventing lenders from identifying it for future analysis before marketing to their PPP loan population. Experian's Commercial First-Party Fraud Score helps lenders understand the first-party fraud risk of their PPP portfolio to limit future exposure for their new PPP population. Data visualization View the PPP dataset displayed in our tableau data visualization. Suppose you are a lender and concerned about fraudulent PPP loans in your portfolio. In that case, Experian can provide you with a Lender ID so you can assess risk levels revealed by the Experian Commercial First-party Fraud Score. View PPP Dashboard

Celebrating Asian American Heritage Month at Experian One of the great things about working at Experian is experiencing how much the company promotes inclusion and diversity and bringing your whole self to work. Working with people from different backgrounds and heritage enriches the organization because our team celebrates hard work and inclusiveness. Here in Business Information Services, we have many Asian American, Pacific Islander team members and we celebrate AAPI with them. We asked colleagues working in different parts of the Experian organization to send us a video clip sharing what Asian American Pacific Islander heritage means to them and here's what they said.  

Experian and Moody's Analytics have just released the Q1  2021 Main Street Report. The report brings deep insight into the overall financial well-being of the small-business landscape and offers commentary on business credit trends and what they mean for lenders and small businesses.     Small business credit performance hedged down slightly in Q1. But, pent-up savings, massive fiscal support, and the winding down of the Covid-19 pandemic will be driving forces for the economy and small businesses going forward in a post-pandemic recovery. Small businesses with fewer than 40 employees added 277,000 jobs in the first quarter, and by the end of 2021 the economy is slated to add nearly 5 million jobs as businesses reopen. After a PPP-induced decline in delinquency, the 31-90 days past due rate ticked up to 1.28 percent in the first quarter, from 1.21 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 1.61 percent one year ago.   Despite a narrative that inflation is rapidly developing, small business owners seem unconcerned. The most recent NFIB survey of most important problems places inflation worries in single-digit territory. If you would like to get the full analysis of the data behind the latest Main Street Report, watch our Quarterly Business Credit Review webinar. Just scan the code or go to the short link and remember to download your copy of the latest report.

Identity Fraud in Commercial Applications We recently sat down with two Experian experts to talk about commercial fraud trends and gain an understanding of why commercial fraud is on the rise, and what organizations can do to combat the problem while at the same time grant credit to growing businesses.  What follows is a lightly edited transcript of our interview. [Gary]: Hello and welcome to Business Chat I'm Gary Stockton with Experian Business Information Services, and today we're going to talk about Commercial Entity Fraud with two of our experts. [Gary]: Patricio HernandezBarron is a Product Marketing Manager here in Business Information Services, and he covers the commercial fraud space. Chris Gerding is a Consultant and he also focuses on commercial fraud. Welcome to business chat guys. [Gary]: The two of you recently collaborated on a perspective paper called Identity Fraud in Commercial Applications, and the piece asserts that there's been rapid growth in commercial fraud in the past few years. So, Patricio, if I could ask you, how are B2B companies affected compared to business to consumer companies in battling fraud? [Patricio]: Let me start by saying that both commercial and consumer or B2B or B2C companies are both affected by fraud, whether this is first-party fraud, third-party fraud, or synthetic fraud. They're both affected. Now, where it becomes different is the type of solutions that are out there in the market for them to solve it. There have been a lot more advancements on the consumer front, and it makes sense, consumer trends move a lot quicker compared to the commercial side of things. [Patricio]: But, in 2020, it's been considerably harder for fraudsters to get through the filters on the consumer side. So (fraudsters) being smart, they've started to focus on the commercial lines of business, which they already know that they're a little behind in terms of the sophistication of consumer lines. So, it's opened a potential opportunity gap for fraudsters to get through and businesses can't wait any longer. They need to raise their game and make that parity between consumer and commercial lines of business in terms of the fraud mitigation strategies. [Gary]: What's the scale and size of the problem of commercial fraud? [Patricio]: It's a big problem. A recent report published by the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners stated that 5% of business revenue was lost to fraud. 55% of respondents we asked said that as of 2019 fraud attacks have increased. So there's a clear problem right now, whether these businesses are recognizing these losses as bad credit or as fraud losses, that is the first thing that they need to focus on. [Patricio]: And the thing is, many of our customers would tell us, “we don't have a fraud problem”, but it was because they weren't recognizing and discerning between credit losses and fraud attacks. So that is the first thing that they need to focus on, start differentiating and categorizing those losses differently so they can start looking into it. The other thing that I'm sharing around this topic is many times businesses tighten their credit decisioning in hopes to reduce those losses. But that was counter-intuitive because they were making it harder for potentially genuine customers to make it through the application process. And yes, the fraudsters were passing this filter or no filters but were passing this credit scoring with no problem because they knew the data that would be required, and there were again, no fraud filters in place to stop them. [Gary]: So, Chris, can you talk about some typical scenarios in which businesses, especially small businesses are typically attacked by fraudsters? [Chris]: Small businesses and any business have a lot in common with consumers. There are modes and fraud scenarios where both are vulnerable. And businesses typically have both financial assets and competitive information at risk. They could be phished; they could be socially engineered, and this is exactly what we read on a consumer basis when we hear about how to avoid fraud. [Chris]: Second, leakage of sensitive information over the other channels can result in direct fraud, like account numbers, pins, obvious targets. However, they need to misrepresent their identity in many cases. And the contact information such as the firm name, the address, the owners, or officer's personal details, this kind of information when compromised leads to potentially bigger and harder to detect, harder to stop fraud schemes. Consumers can be defrauded like businesses, but these are the more big-ticket business-specific categories that you're seeing here on this slide. [Chris]: These three represent a good slice of the many ways businesses are defrauded and small businesses with some vulnerabilities associated with not having millions and millions to spend on fraud defenses would be vulnerable to some extent. The equipment financing and leasing firms can be defrauded either out of funds or especially vehicles and heavy equipment. We see cases not many in the news, but you do hear about these, where, if you pass the finance companies fraud screen, fraudsters can successfully apply for financing and potentially come away with, I mean, a car would be on the low end of this, construction equipment for or combined for major capital items. Then they disappear. [Chris]: Number two, fake invoices are a very easy way comparably to collect perhaps smaller amounts, but these can be forged documents sent in under the wire and they are paid sometimes by very busy accounts payable people with very few defenses in place, and something that we're going to talk about later,  fraud payments figure very largely in commercial fraud. Payments that are not backed up by good funds and intentionally sent it to cover a balance on an account are a very big part of commercial fraud.  Fraudsters may actually make multiple payments, playing the timing game so they keep the account and the account balance alive and growing, or the credit balance on the account so that they can perhaps get more from the fraudulent credit relationship that they've built than the intended credit line by this timing and submission of payments.  They can do this for several industries. They can do this for all different kinds of payment items themselves. They could be done with forged paper checks, electronic payments, and sometimes counterfeit payments themselves. [Gary]: Patricio, turning to you, would profit be impacted by implementing fraud prevention filters? I would imagine that would hinder some profitable growth? [Patricio]: It's a tricky one because, you know, there's this big misconception that by applying fraud filters, that's going to affect your profit or affect your number of applications going through. And it is true to an extent by applying fraud filters, you will see fewer applications going through. But affecting your profit, it's the complete opposite. It's actually going to reduce the losses that you'll be incurring, and I briefly touched upon this in your previous question, but what many companies do when they're not able to differentiate between credit losses and fraud losses, they tighten their decisioning in their credit applications. Those potentially good customers don't make it through, but fraudsters make it through with no problem at all. Because the decisioning system that they have for credit purposes does not do much for mitigating the fraudsters. [Patricio]: Many times, these companies don't invest in fraud solutions until they've gotten this big hit from a fraud attack, at that point, it's already too late. So, I would say that the best thing to do to help your profit is to be proactive because fraud can affect your profit if you get impacted. If you're proactive about it, you can protect or reduce those fraud losses that you're currently seeing as overall fraud, or losses that could be a fraud and not just credit losses. [Gary]: What's the number one step that commercial business, especially a small business can take to combat this wave of commercial fraud? [Chris]: Awareness must be built into the culture and it must be built into the solution and how the firm deals with the solution because there's no way to solve the fraud problem with a turnkey black box, turn it on, and forget it, we don't have that. And we may not have that for many, many years. [Gary]: Can you tell me more about the first payment defaults and how lenders are addressing that problem? [Chris]: We spoke a bit about payments in general as a fraud channel, but this is a particularly aggressive form of fraud or credit abuse. And it happens when the borrowing party just never ever makes one payment on the account. They may utilize the entire credit line and they just don't ever pay. So when the first payment is in default, there's a high suspicion that this could be a fraudster. There's a little ambiguity, as I said, but the credit and the fraud dimensions are rather close. They're rather parallel, in terms of how they are dealt with. [Chris]: What are we doing about accounts that are very brazen and do this on the first payment due?  We evaluate the risk at the time of enrollment. This is very important, we don't know, who's not going to pay us the first time. So we need a tool that evaluates, in this case, we offer a score, a commercial first payment default score, which is very high performance and very friendly to the combined mix of consumer and commercial data that a firm might have. Second,  it pays to look at the risk of the entire portfolio for first payment default periodically.  Again, is done with a score, it could be the same score I mentioned. In the third category, if it's necessary,  the host firm may wish to use scoring the individual payment item, the check, the online payment as a fraud evaluation, which is done by a different set of scores to manually perform systemic checks. [Gary]: So Patricio what are some of the most common misunderstandings in fraud prevention products? [Patricio]: Fraud filters will affect the number of applications that you are able to approve. As we mentioned before, it does affect the number of applications that you'll see come through, but it will help increase your profit by incurring fewer losses. Again, fewer fraudsters make it through equals fewer losses coming into your system. The second one would be that most fraud can be solved by verifying the identity of the user. And sure, it's because third-party fraud solutions are very popular, but that's not going to help you with all types of fraud. That's why you do need a layered approach for mitigating what's going to come through the door because, at the end of the day, you don't know what type of fraud you're going to be seeing. [Patricio]: By implementing a solution that will verify the identity of the user, that's not going to help you fight all types of fraud. In fact, stand-alone, you will do very little to mitigate first-party fraud and likewise with synthetic fraud. So again, if the way to solve fraud is not with a one size fits all approach, it's layered whether you have the resources and the capacity to implement a geolocation verification, or verify the validity of the data or verify the identity of the business owner. These are all things that are just going to prevent and help you weed out the different types of application fraud that you could see (coming) through the door. [Gary]: Chris, what can small businesses do to engage with Experian and minimize their fraud exposure? [Chris]: We love to talk, especially to small businesses on a very global scale in terms of their business operations and where it is that we might be able to help them. They may come to us with a great deal of awareness that they have a fraud problem and they kind of know where it is, but they look for a specific solution. Other small businesses may come to us with general concern. And in those, and in other cases, we are happy to sit down with them and do what I would call a free consultation and look at their information and make some suggestions. [Chris]: What we do is we offer solutions, but we like to add to that the knowledge of the particular client's situation, so that they become wiser and they become enabled by the kind of services that we provide, and they become enabled by the information we can bring to them upfront so they can make a wise consumer solution as it were. [Gary]: Well fraud in the payment protection program or the PPP program is all over the news. What do you make of that?  Are these fraudulent applications affecting lenders, even though the losses would be absorbed by the government? [Patricio]: While many of these lenders know and think that the loss of the potential losses would be absorbed by the government, the reality is that it's uncovering many gaps for these lenders. First, we understand there's a greater volume of applications going through their systems. So what many of these lenders have done is either turn off, completely turn off their fraud mitigation systems, or they've reduced the amount of vetting that they do, because they're not too worried because they know that the government is going to absorb those losses because of the volume of applications that they see. Now, the problem with that is that if they completely turned off the system, now they have potential fraudsters within their portfolio, or on the other hand, if they lessened the amount of filtering that they do, and yet still some fraudsters make it through, it's going to be very hard to weed out those fraudsters down the line. It's just putting more risk to your overall portfolio, and, people, once they're in there, they've already uncovered some gaps in your underwriting process. So again, just down the line is going to be very hard to weed out these fraudsters that made it through your portfolio, [Gary]: Chris, anything to add? [Chris]: That was a good summary. I would add only that the other side of the coin is when you put many, many tens of millions of good Government money into the hands of fraudsters, you're sort of inflating the entire credit system. You're allowing bad people to get what appears to be credit for good loans until they're discovered. Many of these will probably not be discovered. So you're kind of adding bads to the system and calling them goods. And that's never good for all of us. [Gary]: Well, this has been very helpful guys.  I want to say thank you very much for coming on Business Chat and sharing your insights.

Commercial fraud prevention causing unintended harm We often hear anecdotes from our clients about a recent string of bad debt, soliciting advice on how best to prevent future losses. Typically, with an increase in credit loss, maybe your natural reaction is to tighten up on credit evaluation criteria to screen out look-alikes?  In so doing, you can also impact the ability to grow, and in the process, exclude good customers by retooling your lending criteria, weeding out fraud. In our upcoming 15-minute Sip and Solve webinar, we'll explore whether tightening your credit score cards could unintentionally cause dozens, hundreds, thousands of small businesses not to receive the credit they deserve. Date: Thursday, April 22nd, 2021 Time: 10:30 a.m. (Pacific) 1:3- p.m. (Eastern) Session highlights Find out why misclassifying losses due to fraud as credit write-offs could impact your ability to grow your business. Learn more about delinquent small business credit behaviors versus small businesses looking to commit fraud. Discover how you can assess whether past charge-offs were actually due to fraud. Save my seat

Beyond the Trends Spring 2021 - now available     We're excited to announce the release of our second Beyond the Trends report. This report's going to deep dive into the economic trends that we're seeing in the market now. We look at some commercial and consumer credit trends that will impact recovery. And we'll deep dive into some of the industries that are most impacted. One of the things we talk about in this edition is economic growth. As excitement builds within the markets and reopening continues across different regions, we see an expectation for 7% GDP growth in the U.S. We're seeing a 27% increase in business starts year-over-year, and businesses reopened. We have new businesses emerging as well. In this report, we'll look at ways that lenders, as well as businesses, will be seen in credit markets and how growth can occur. Finally, with new stimulus in the market, consumers are ready to spend. Small businesses will look for opportunities to move from security mode and safety mode, business preservation into a transformational growth mode. Stay informed by downloading your copy of the Beyond the Trends report. Download the latest report

In the wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic, thousands of companies were forced to go digital, transforming brick and mortar experiences to mobile-enabled, touchless digital experiences.  Whether you were a small grocery chain or a family restaurant getting plugged into a myriad of takeout ordering platforms, the choice was simple, upgrade to a fully digital experience or go extinct. When the $2.2 trillion CARES act passed in March of 2020, and with it the $350 billion Paycheck Protection Program, many banks had to work quickly to transform their SMB lending process to be more data-driven, risk-proof, scalable, and ready to deploy in a matter of weeks, rather than months. The Unqork no-code solution offers a flexible alternative. There’s a new breed of solutions that make it possible for banks to build robust, mission-critical applications without using a single line of code. Unqork is the leading no-code enterprise application development platform. With Unqork, you can manage no-code application development throughout the entire Software Development Lifecycle without having to implement traditional coding efforts, so you can move faster at a lower cost with fewer errors to future-proof your business. The Unqork platform makes it easy to power applications with Experian data using API’s. You can build powerful digital experiences without the scripting and coding you would normally expect. Curious? Watch our recent Business Chat interview with Unqork below. Digital Transformation with No-Code & API's | Business Chat Interview Transcription We interviewed Ben Smith, Head of Banking with Unqork and Carl Stronach, Senior Product Manager with Experian met during a recent Business Chat about No-Code for Enterprise Financial Services. What follows is a lightly edited transcription of their talk. [Gary]: Hello and welcome to Business Chat. So happy you could join us today. I'm Gary Stockton with Experian; I'm with Business Information Services here in North America.  We would love to know where you're joining us from. We're streaming here from Costa Mesa, California; we're live on LinkedIn and other channels via Restream. Be sure to drop us a comment and hashtag #teamlive if you're watching us live, hashtag #teamreplay, if you're catching this on the replay, and remember sharing, is caring. We would love it if you can share this chat. If you could let your colleagues know that we're talking about APIs and No-Code by sharing this live stream, that would help us expand our audience. So they were going to be talking about no-code technology and Experian API's with two great experts. Joining us from Unqork is Ben Smith. He's the head of banking, and from Experian is Carl Stronach. He's a Senior Product Manager here at Experian, and he works on API's. Welcome gentlemen. Ben, if you could take a moment, please tell us a bit about Unqork and your mission, where you're based, and how you got started. [Ben]: So we were founded in 2017 by Gary Hoberman. Gary was the CIO of MetLife, and Gary had a mission to redefine software development and focus on delivering software at the enterprise-grade faster with a lower total cost of ownership and something that could be delivered by a number of different people, not necessarily people who had a significant development talent and experience. So Gary set out in 2017 to redefine how we do it. We are a no-code platform. We are totally cloud-based and agnostic. We are deployed in over ten countries with over 70 different clients. And the other thing, part of the mission that we have here around the development is we've trained over 10,000 experts globally who can develop on the platform because we believe that the no-code environment allows for rapid adoption, and we want that adoption to be significant. [Ben]: So, what it says here is we have three major investors; we have a number of other ones. Obviously, BlackRock, Google, and Goldman Sachs are all major investors. And then, as I alluded to earlier, the mission of the firm is to develop enterprise-grade no-code solutions. So you can see at the bottom of this slide some of our major customers as well. [Gary]: Carl, could you share a little bit about your role here at Experian you've been at Experian quite a while, and how you work with companies like Unqork? [Carl]: So I've been with Experian for almost seven years, I'm focused on new product development. For the last four years, I have been focused on our APIs and bringing Experian business information into our global developer portal. In that time I've worked with a countless number of banks and FI's, and many of our clients across our verticals in their integration with Experian. In terms of how they are going to get our data in the most efficient way. I've supported a lot of them from the business side and the IT side and kind of sat in on both. And I've seen many of our clients really succeed with their integrations with us. That's just a direct integration to our rest API, and others, you know, take a long time. [Carl]: So I'm sensitive to the fact that coding to APIs as easy as we can try to make them with a rest API, and as easy as we can try to make them by adding SDKs or, or other supporting information on top, it's still difficult and time-consuming. A lot of the time to code to APIs certainly gets much more complex as we get into regulated data.  So it's definitely something that we want to narrow the timeline strategically.  How do we get access to data and query it faster than ever before?  Strategically it's something we're interested in and excited to be a part of, and working with providers like Unqork allows us to unlock some of those technologies. [Gary]: So Ben, what's the distinction between low-code and no-code, and what drives the adoption of no-code technology? [Ben]: The main difference is that everything that we develop on Unqork does not have any native code to it.  So for you, as a developer, it's a complete visual system. And the most important thing is there's no need to maintain the code once you've written it. So even in low code environments, there is, of course, the upkeep of the code, and ultimately it becomes legacy. Whereas in our system, all of our customers are on the same platform using the same environment, or sorry, using the same software to develop their solutions. And they're always up to date. That's a big difference, there's no need to develop that last bit, and there's no need to maintain it once it's out because as soon as you write a bit of code, you've got to maintain that code going forward. [Ben]: To the second point, how are people adopting it?  We see it adopted across a number of use cases. So, for exactly that reason. Many in my world as Head of Banks, many of our customers in the banking sector are looking for ways to develop both customer-facing as well as internal-facing software that digitizes their workflows, whether that be onboarding, operations. It just depends on the needs of that particular bank. But again, the rapid development, the ability to get to market faster and the ability to not have to maintain that codebase once it's up and running have been a really powerful part of our value statement. [Gary]: Carl, switching to data and API's. You work with a lot of clients in the banking industry. Can you tell me where in the customer life cycle does Experian API's fall? [Carl]: It's really across the lifecycle. From campaign targeting and finding new customers to underwriting and account acquisition and customer management, even collections. It's really across the full spectrum. To take a step back.  Everyone thinks of Experian as the consumer credit bureau. And, I am a very big fan of John Sina. So I think that's how Experian is generally known. But Experian's business goes well beyond just consumer credit. Obviously, we have business credit, and that's our focus here. But when it comes to our APIs, we bring everything together into a single global developer portal. So, what you can do through a single developer account is an interface with all Experian information, and we source data internally. So we've got our North America Business Information, Consumer Information, Automotive, Data, Quality, Decisioning, you name it, it's all available in one place. Also, we have an International focus too. So if you go there, you'll see API's from the UK, India, Singapore, all across the globe. We really try to be that shop for Experian data, making it much easier to code to us and eliminate those silos that used to exist in our own internal legacy systems. [Carl]: Now, I'm really excited by some of the things that Unqork can do. When we talk about setting up one workflow that can be shared many times and doesn't have to be re-coded over and over and over again, we see the same in working with our customers. When we work with our banking customers, a lot of them execute the same exact workflows to get to Experian data. Maybe the data they need is different. Maybe the data they find predictive is different, but it's really a lot of the same workflows. And so, as we work with Unqork we can define more of these workflows, make them predefined and hopefully just speed time to market. Really eliminate a lot of the burdens with a new integration or basically offer a new product and get it out. [Gary]: So you're finding that customers are applying these new technologies to get to market faster. I have to imagine that that was fairly active during COVID. A lot of people spinning up shopping carts and people that have brick-and-mortar stores had to innovate faster. And would you agree that platforms like Unqork are helping make that possible with API's? [Carl]: Absolutely, so that's even a part of what we're trying to do as well. As small businesses have had to transform due to COVID, they've had to adopt more digital experiences and maybe they had to. It's a restaurant and they had to change their storefront from having tables and chairs to having just a counter and offering delivery, opening up the restaurant to more kitchen space, to handle a greater number of orders coming in. I think we are also trying to capture new data assets that can tap into that business's digital transformation. So, we've done a lot to acquire more online data on businesses, more social media data on businesses, to tap into understanding what that business activity is. Are they open? Are they closed due to COVID? And so, as we start to adopt those new data sources, our clients also face the challenge of discovering them, integrating them into their services. [Gary]: Excellent. So, a two-part question for you Ben.  How are banks deploying no code and, and are there any security considerations when using a no-code platform? [Ben]: I think you know what we do here at Unqork for some of our customers, and what Unqork provides is the capability to both design a bank-specific user experience, but in a rapid way to deploy digitally. To solve problems that are rising quickly. PPP is a good example of that and other ones. Going forward, the ability to integrate with places like Experian on different data types such as social and some of the other ones that Carl spoke of. I think will be very important in terms of how banks redefine their small business and business offerings because post-COVID we're all going to be trying to figure out how to serve that segment in a way that makes sense from both a credit and a service point of view. [Gary]: Excellent. So, Carl what challenges are you seeing with lenders adopting and integrating bureau and non-traditional data? I mean, non-traditional is a hot space right now. [Carl]: Yeah. So, I think one of the challenges is just discovering the data and defining it, and being able to start working with it.  I think we experienced that, even internally, so there are just so many different data sources out there. How do you really prioritize what to go after? Having it available in a single place is really key.  If you had to continually define data and bring it into your database in order to work with it, it just becomes very challenging.  We need to find and adopt technologies that take that burden away from our customers. Gary, we can't expect every customer to define the data source. We need to do it for them and technologies like Unqork, give us the ability to do that. And so, I'm excited by that part. If we can lower the burden there, it can unleash data analysts and data scientists to really find out which data might be predictive.  So a lot of our customers want to find data that's going to be predictive of credit risk, predictive of delinquency. We need to find ways that allow them to really focus their time on finding the data, what data is actually going to be predictive. I don't want to spend all my time just defining the data just so I can test the top, a couple of fields that I have a hunch on. I want to go deeper and really find that marginal value. And technology is the key enabler that lets us do that. So go into the data. [Gary]: Thank you, Carl. So, Ben, based on what we just heard from Carl, can you share some examples of how SMB lenders can fast-track lending applications? [Ben]: Sure. We're working with banks around both customer onboarding and also around, the product development, into the origination cycle.  I think what Carl's saying is right. To the extent that we can discover this data and get it at a deeper level, get it into the risk modeling infrastructure,  through the integrations that we, as a platform can build, allows for more rapid adoption of alternative data sources. But also, better credit decisioning, you know, particularly as I sort of feel passionately about a post-COVID world and the need to take a different view as to how that credit risk moves or how credit risk is assessed. [Gary]: Well this has been very interesting guys. And folks, if you would like to learn more about no-code and how to fast track applications and integrate with Experian API's, Unqork is hosting a webinar March 24th at 12 Eastern. Experian is going to be participating in that, we're very excited to participate.  If you would like to register, you can just point your phone at the QR code or go to the link that we have there. We'll leave that in the description for this video, if you want to come back to this later. And, by all means, if you have any questions drop them in the comments. We'll be monitoring the comments in the next few days and replying to those. I want to thank both of you guys for taking time out today. I know you're both extremely busy, and looking forward to chatting with you again soon and looking forward to the webinar on the 24th. Watch Webinar Unqork + Experian: Smarter Small Business Lending  

Main Street Report Q4 Highlights - Business Chat In this post we include a transcript from our February 11th Business Chat about the highlights in the most recent Main Street Report for Q4, 2020. We were joined by Cristian DeRitis, Deputy Chief Economist from Moody's Analytics, and Brodie Oldham, Senior Director of Analytics for Experian. [Gary]: Welcome to Business Chat. We're going to be talking about small business credit today—small business credit trends for Q4 with the release of the Experian Moody's Analytics Main Street Report. We've got the Deputy Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics, Christian DeRitis with us. Good morning, Christian. [Cristian]: Hi, good morning [Gary]: Good morning. [Gary]: And joining Christian is Brodie Oldham. He's a Senior Director of Analytics here at Experian. [Brodie]: Good morning. [Gary]: So glad you guys could join us today. So we're going to be taking a, look at the the highlights from the Experian Moody's Analytics Main Street Report just released. The report had three real standout items for me - the increase in hiring during Q4 that would be normally be expected. Delinquency rates declining to 1.21% and taxes as a main concern. We're showing that small businesses did add employees in Q4. It looks like those jobs appear to be funded primarily through credit. And businesses did keep the outstanding balances in check in Q4 with that moderate delinquency edging down to 1.21%, this time last year, it was around 1.60%. So, you know, there some good things there in the report, it seems kind of counter-intuitive, you know, when you read the headlines, but one of the things that also is starting to kind of resurge as a concern among business owners are taxes related to maybe a new administration and having things taking a different direction in terms of taxation. S. The thing that is probably on the minds of most small business owners and the nation really would be stimulus and getting some help for business owners. Biden has proposed a $1.9 trillion relief package. So Christian, I wanted to get your thoughts on the package, and if you could maybe cover some of the high points on it and what your thoughts are. [Cristian]: Yeah, sure. So they, you know, the $1.9 trillion package is an extension, if you will, of the cares act that we had last year or two, $2.4 trillion package, plus the additional stimulus that was passed at the end of December, really the purpose of those packages to my mind, it was largely preservation, right? We had households, small businesses that were really struggling under the weight of the pandemic and the associated closures. And so that assistance was really the lifeline to keep household finances in intact to some degree and to, and to preserve small businesses. Right? Last thing we wanted is to have millions of businesses failing. And then even when we get to the recovery stage, we don't have any, any of that, uh, that foundation to build off of the next, stimulus here. The 1.9 trillion that's been proposed, I think this package or some version of it is really intended to be stimulative to go to the next level where we have the vaccines kicking in the economy is recovering. You have consumers of being a little bit more positive and hopeful of the future here. And this package to me, is really designed to jumpstart some of the activity to ensure that we build some momentum and keep going in particular for small businesses. We have extension of the PPP program. That's the Paycheck Protection Program, this time around monies allocated are designed to be much more focused on the truly smallest businesses, many of which have been struggling and have few other options when it comes to credit. And so, I view that certainly as a positive as we, again, look forward to the future here, in terms of consumers coming back in leisure hospitality spending, coming back as people start to feel more comfortable after the vaccination efforts take hold. And so this, I, I do believe that this stimulus is certainly beneficial to ensure that we, we make it to that a more positive growth environment towards the end of the year, say the third or fourth quarter, I don't know that the full $1.9 trillion package will actually be passed. There's certainly a lot of debate around it, but I think some version of it that perhaps a scale-down package, maybe something closer to a trillion dollars will be passing that that certainly will be helpful for households and small businesses alike. [Gary]: Very good. Alright. Turning to you Brodie. One of the things that we saw again in the report would be credit and use of credit and businesses had kind of their appetite for credit in the Q4 timeframe had kind of declined. Did you have a comment on that? [Brodie]: I do, and, you know, it is a trend that we've been seeing through the summer. That pull back when we look at small businesses, just prior to the pandemic, what we saw them do is open up credit, looking for some longer term credit facilities that they could, uh, reach into and create some cushion for them as they looked forward and saw the pandemic growing, knowing that we would be entering some type of recessionary period. They knew that lenders would tighten up criteria as they went forward. And lenders did turn on their recessionary underwriting programs toward the beginning of last summer. And that really created a gap there for funding for small businesses and for their survival. Like Christian spoke to about stimulus, came in and provided some of that low cost alternative funding that small businesses might have gotten otherwise from banks or credit unions Fintechs across the marketplace. And so when we looked at that stimulus coming out, it really added or exacerbated that pull back that we saw of small businesses reaching out for this type of credit. Now we had the first round of stimulus that went really to all businesses, across the spectrum. When we look at the second poll, that's going to come out the second round of stimulus, that'll be part of the market what we're going to see is, and we're seeing already, a large number of those that were in the first round of PPP loans are entering the second round up to 93%. We've seen eighties, seventies across some of our different lenders. You know, at the second round is going to require some additional look at how a business's performance was through the third and fourth quarter if they have losses and, you know, those that picked it up in the first round, not all really needed it. And they took it from the perspective of we're going to take in the money. We're going to pay down some of our loans. We're going to,  create some additional utilization space for us. And we saw some of that across the trends. And we'll talk about some of that in the upcoming Quarterly Business Credit Review. But what we're going to see as we go forward, is that, you know, as the pandemic lightens a bit, we see the vaccines take hold. We're going to see that some of the collections and foreclosure activity is going to slow a bit. We're going to see, you know, we're going to see those moratoriums come to an end. What that's going to create is a need for,  some additional credit. And some of that's going to be beyond what will be provided in the stimulus packages. And so, as we go forward, as the market opens up, we see more foot traffic, businesses are going to go from that survival feel, into more of a future investment type of a growth feel. And in that they're going to be looking for banks and credit unions and fintechs and across the marketplace to again, look for opportunities to pick up some additional funding as we go forward. [Gary]: Very good. So gentlemen, you know, we're in Q1 right now, we should be seeing data for that coming in the early part of April, any thoughts on how this is going to break in terms of credit performance, business performance, if I guess it all depends on stimulus right now, and we've got what's happening in Texas and other things that are complicating things, any thoughts to, to close with? [Cristian]: Yeah. So from my perspective, I think it's still going to be a Rocky few months here. Assuming that stimulus does kick in and we continued to provide support to households and small businesses, I would expect the credit performance actually is going to remain fairly strong in the short term. And it's really, once we move beyond and remove those supports in the third, fourth quarter, we're going to have some counteracting forces, we'll have a stronger economy, so growth and labor market's coming back. Revenues are rising at a, at businesses. On the other hand, those supports are going away. There's a threat of somewhat higher interest rates. And so that I do expect to see a wave of bankruptcies and some additional delinquencies rising. But I don't, I don't expect that we're going to see a, a substantial shock. I think it's some more return to normality, the delinquencies and default rates are perhaps artificially suppressed for now. And they'll just gradually rise back to more normal level, but I don't know, Brodie, maybe you have a different opinion? [Brodie]: No, I think you're right on Christian. I think what we'll also see is you know, more new businesses entering the market. We saw a lot of closures that came toward the end of last year. We're going to see more reopenings, but those new businesses that are opening are going to have a hard time building credit as we come forward. They're not going to have that credit history that some of these that closed did. We'll see them start to build that credit history. We're going to see lenders some use different tools to differentiate credit risk for some of these new businesses and remarket. So we'll see originations begin to rise. We'll see some of that underwriting criteria loosen even continue to loosen into the first and second quarter. So it's going to give more opportunity for small businesses. Certainly as we get into the summertime, as, you know, foot traffic is going to increase, we're really going to be in a better place as a country. So I think we're going to really have an opportunity for businesses again, to go from that survival mode into what's my future, going to look like how do I invest to grow from here? [Gary]: Very good. Well, we'll be getting together again on March 16th. We're going to be doing more of a deep dive on the Experian Moody's Analytics Main Street Report, and that'll be the report for the Q4, Derek Grunfelder-McCrank is going to be joining us. That's Christian's colleague. And so I will see you gentlemen again on the 16th. And folks, if you would like to attend a webinar, there's a link here in this slide and also I will leave a link in the description for this video and a link to the report. If you haven't got your copy, please sign up. We'd love to get that report out there, have more people read it. Thanks very much for coming to Business Chat today. Thank you.

  In this Business Chat, we sat down with Experian's Director of Data Management, Ben Bargoil, and Cloudera Chief Customer Officer, Anupam Singh to talk about the data management investments Experian is making in machine learning and A.I, and how these investments are helping our clients. Ben, can you share a little bit about some of the data challenges we are having here at Experian? [Ben]: Most of the challenges we've been facing and working closely with Cloudera and solving over the last say two years have been in response to growing demands from the marketplace, right? What was considered acceptable even two years ago, in terms of data coverage and data accuracy, is no longer meeting our customers' needs in the marketplace. And add to that the legacy processes and legacy environment that we operated in, we're challenged with keeping up with the variety, the volume, and the velocity of data that Experian has, and that coupled with our previous approaches to data management, that weren't flexible enough necessarily to empower these new approaches. Right? Again, most of what we wanted to solve were related to how we can continue to do what we're doing but do it in a much more efficient, much more impactful way for our customers. Anupama turning to you; what solution did Cloudera prescribe to Experian to help us address some of these challenges? [Anupam]: Machine Learning is only as good as the data, and so the solution that we provided is a comprehensive solution called Cloudera Data Science Workbench. Yes, the more charismatic part of the product is that you can do Machine Learning apps and build neural networks. But in reality, where we saw Experian needed the product is things like data de-duplication, classification. So it is almost a prologue to the machine learning problem. So that's the solution that we provided. Ben, can you explain how these investments help Experian clients? [Ben]: When we were creating this new, these new approaches, and this new team, one thing that I was determined that I needed this centralized hub, right. I wanted a central hub in which we could build an entirely new ecosystem, and as we worked with the Cloudera team, it became obvious to us that CDSW was going to be our best choice. [Ben]:  So while we were investing in a CDSW, Experian had also been investing in our new technology environment, and putting those two together was the key to our success. Each one of these challenges has a direct line of sight to our clients. And most of them are based on direct feedback we've received from clients over the previous years if you will, and one of the great things that we've done inside of CDSW inside of the applications is measuring the impact to Experian customers. So we know confidently, we can state that millions and millions of customer interactions with our data have been improved thanks to the solutions we've built inside of CDSW. Anupam, did Experian have any unique challenges that stood out to Cloudera when we engaged with you? [Anupam]: Of course, with Experian, you know, I tell the team internally at Cloudera that we are all Experian customers indirectly, right? Anytime I'm going to buy something, Experian is in the workflow. So that always stands out for us. But the sheer scale of Experian, when you have almost a billion unique users that you're serving, you guys are one of the biggest Internet properties on the planet that nobody has heard of. When we were looking at the nomination for Data Impact awards, any small gains, 10% for Experian's actually a hundred million human beings on the planet, and so, that stood out for us. That's what got us excited about working with Experian on this problem, the sheer scale of it. How, how long did it take before you saw measurable results in working with the Cloudera solution? [Ben]: If you go back, let's go back two years ago when we were first creating this new ecosystem, and we first started our engagement with CDSW. There were the normal growing pains associated with a new environment, a new toolset, and a new team that we were onboarding onto Experian as well. So between the time we started working with Cloudera, it was many months until we had created a team, launched our first application, and started to make improvements to the database. Fast forward to today, we have many applications that have been created and launched in production, and the great thing is, this is very typical of most machine learning applications, you spend most of your time with the data, exploring, cleansing the data, creating the features you need to use within your machine learning application. [Ben]: But what we see is that the large bulk of the work, once we get to the point where we're ready to move into production through the combined power of CDSW and our new environment, we can make significant changes in a very short amount of time. I'm talking millions of improvements in a month or two months. To give you a good example of industry coverage, industry classification coverage, that was one of the challenges we wanted to solve was our customers wanted us to create more industry codes for businesses. So we spent many months building the application, doing all kinds of feature engineering. Within the course of about two to three months after we launched that application, I think we added somewhere in the 20 million range, new industry codes to our database. Again, lots of work on the front end, but as soon as we get into production, huge improvements in, in a short amount of time. What can you share about the Cloudera Data Impact Awards? [Anupam]: Our Data Impact Awards look for impact. We are all in the enterprise software business. Sometimes we forget what impact we have; if you have great fraud detection, you and I can safely shop on the Internet. We are talking today through some internet provider that runs its network management, and its network reliability analytics on top of Cloudera. For us, the Data Impact Awards are not just about our technology, but what impact we've had on the healthcare, banking, and telco systems of the world, of the world's government systems. That's how we measure, and it's fairly competitive every year. Can you share any criteria on what the judges looked for whenever they were choosing a winner? [Anupam]: What we look for,  is this real in terms of, does it have an impact or was it just a technology experiment? We found with Velcro, for example, de-duplication of records is one of the biggest problems in machine learning, and the scale at which Experian de-duplicated records, meaning, knowing which Ben is the right Ben when I'm looking it up is a very real problem. All of us face it as a consumer— the same thing with establishing a corporate identity. As somebody who runs a very large business for Cloudera, sometimes you don't even know what is the actual name of the customer. So the idea that you can resolve the name of a customer is a real problem. So taking these two or three real problems, we saw the level of impact that Experian was having on its customers, but more importantly, on its indirect, all the consumers in the world, and that stood out for us. Ben, what has the response been from Experian clients since deploying Cloudera?  [Ben]: Some of the problems and challenges we've been addressing are more behind the scenes, under the covers, like what Anupam just mentioned, improved entity resolution, improved structural integrity. So those may or may not be necessarily as overt as some of the other challenges we saw, like the industry classification example we mentioned, right? Adding all of those millions and tens of millions of codes to our database, our customers have a direct line of sight to that. We've received very positive feedback from the marketplace in terms of embracing these new approaches and being able to solve those challenges. I always like to say I'm not quite declaring victory on any of these challenges yet, but, you know, the end of the war is in sight on some of them. We've almost completely removed this as an area of opportunity, and we are meeting the needs of the marketplace. Subscribe to our YouTube Channel