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Assessing the Market: Throw Out the Crystal Ball and Turn to Data

Published: February 8, 2021 by Guest Contributor

Business woman with tablet in car dealership

2020 has put a lot of industries on edge, the automotive industry included. Having experienced and recovered from many economic events over the years, dealers and the rest of the industry have had a ton of practice navigating these pitfalls. But reacting to these events on the fly can be troublesome and leave their operations vulnerable. What if there was a way to prepare ahead of time? The key to such insight is data.

Last year is a testament to how quickly trends can shift, and entire industries can be turned upside down. It’s no longer enough to just react to the immediate challenges. Instead, it is crucial to be proactive. This means identifying and preparing for potential obstacles and challenges before they occur. And while we can’t predict what the future looks like, we can stay close to the trends as they are forming and adjust accordingly.

Of course, this is easier said than done. Every economic event is unique, but there are certain occurrences that tend to happen during a crisis. Oftentimes, the unemployment rate increases, interest rates drop, and the housing market shifts, just to name a few. These events translate to changes in the auto industry as well.

For example, according to Experian’s Automotive Market Insights dashboard, an increase in unemployment correlates with decreased vehicle registrations. At the onset of the pandemic, the unemployment rate dramatically increased to nearly 14%, while vehicle registrations decreased from 1.1 million at the beginning of the year to around 660,000 in April. But digging a little deeper, the dashboard also shows that the peak of unemployment predates a decline in vehicle registrations by approximately one month. With the ability to see how certain events impact the automotive industry, dealers can plan ahead and make adjustments that can support their business during turbulent times.

Prepping for negative events is just one piece of the puzzle. Dealers must also find opportunity for growth during downturns. Identifying conquest opportunity is just one way dealers can expand their businesses. Knowing which consumers are coming off-lease, off-loan or are in positive equity in local surrounding areas can inform growth strategy and fuel sales. For instance, dealers may want to structure attractive lease and trade-in packages, ultimately helping to boost sales activity when it’s needed most.

While we may not be able to predict any economic downturn, we can do our best to prepare for them. Data provides crucial insights that can help dealers avoid more stress than necessary during challenging chapters. Market trends ebb and flow, even more so during times of crisis. Staying close to the data allows dealers to take control of their businesses during what feels like an out-of-control situation and see their businesses through to more stable times.

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While many industry pundits are assessing how macroeconomic changes may impact the future of the automotive market, recent data suggests consumers tend to stick to specific fuel types. According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2024, over the last 12 months, 77.5% of electric vehicle (EV) owners replaced their EV with another one, with 15.6% returning to gas-powered vehicles. Meanwhile, 82.2% of gas vehicle owners replaced it with the same fuel type, while only 4.7% made the switch to electric. It’s important for professionals to recognize that most consumers tend to replace their vehicles with the same fuel type. Additionally, knowing who is making these purchases and the types of vehicles being registered allows better anticipation for consumer needs and ultimately enhances the buying experience while fostering consumer loyalty. Breaking down fuel types by generation Through Q4 2024, Baby Boomers predominantly registered new gasoline vehicles, accounting for 74.7% of their choices, while 15.9% opted for hybrids and 6.6% chose EVs. Millennials showed a similar trend, with 69.2% registering gas vehicles, followed by 15.1% selecting hybrids and 12.5% choosing EVs. Gen Z also favored gasoline vehicles at 74.0%, with hybrids making up 14.3% and EVs at 9.1% of their registrations. Although gasoline vehicles account for the majority of new registrations, EVs and hybrids are steadily gaining ground, particularly among the younger generations who are drawn to advanced features that align with their preferences. This will likely play a role in shaping the future of vehicle registrations as more gas alternative models hit the market and consumers make the switch. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2024 presentation on demand.

Published: April 2, 2025 by John Howard

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Published: March 26, 2025 by Ted Wentzel

Electric vehicles (EVs) are the topic of conversation in the automotive industry, but we’re continuing to see another fuel type pick up speed. With consumer demand shifting and drivers exploring more fuel-efficient options, the automotive market is leaning back into hybrids. In fact, new retail hybrid registrations grew to 11.5% through Q3 2024, from 9.5% through Q3 2023, according to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024. Meanwhile, EVs increased from 7.7% to 8.2% year-over-year and gasoline vehicles declined to 70.4% this year, from 72.7% last year. Despite EVs gaining notable attention over recent years, some consumers may be factoring in the benefits of opting for a hybrid, such as the convenience of driving a longer distance without facing challenges as charging stations remain limited. As more manufacturers adapt to consumer needs and roll out additional vehicles, data shows 9.1% of 2024 model year vehicles in operation were attributed to hybrids, while 6.2% of 2024 model years were EVs through Q3 2024. Having more models enter the market has shifted the hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market share, with the Toyota Camry making up 12.5% of the market share this quarter, a notable increase from 2.4% last year. On the other hand, the Jeep Wrangler 4xe went from having 4.5% of market share last year to 2.4% through Q3 2024. With many consumers continuing to have some concerns around EVs such as range anxiety and charging times, they’re seeking a more practical solution for their daily driving needs. The balance of fuel options provides more convenience—making hybrids an appealing choice for those wanting an EV alternative. It’s important for manufacturers to stay ahead of the competitive market as it’s constantly evolving. Leveraging the most current data can provide solutions that address both feasibility and consumer preference. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024 presentation on demand.

Published: January 10, 2025 by John Howard

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