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A recent analysis revealed a 9-point negative shift in the average VantageScore® credit score for personal loan originations from Q3 to Q4 of 2016. Additional insights into the personal loan market include: 67% of those who opened a personal installment loan had a revolving trade with a balance. 5% of consumers who close a personal loan open another within a few months of the original loan closure. 68% of consumers who open a new personal loan shortly after closing another one do so with the same company. Lenders must dig deeper to keep their loan volumes up in today’s competitive marketplace. Using a propensity score and attributes, as well as tools to learn more about ability-to-pay metrics and offer alignment, can improve your organization’s marketing and retention strategies. Learn more>

There has been a lot of discussion around the auto loan market regarding delinquency rates in the past year. It is a topic Experian is asked about frequently from clients in regard to what particular economic market behaviors mean for the overall consumer lending. To understand this issue more clearly, I ran a deeper dive on the data from our Q3 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence report. There are some interesting, and perhaps concerning, trends in the data for automotive loans and leases. Want Insights on the latest consumer credit trends? Register for our 2016 year-end review webinar. Register now Auto loan delinquency rates are at their highest mark since 2008 The findings indicate that the performance of the most recent loans opened from Q4 2015 are now performing as poorly as the loans from the credit crisis back in 2008. In fact, you have to go back to 2008, and in some cases, 2007, to see loan default rates as poorly as the Q4 2015 auto loans originated in the last year. Below we have the auto loan vintage performance for loans originated in Q4 of the last 8 years — going back to 2008. The lines on the chart each represent 60 days late or more (60+) delinquency rates over specific time period grades. For these charts, I analyzed the first three, six, and nine months from the loan origination date. As you can see, the rates of delinquency have steadily increased in recent years, with the increase in the Q4 2015 loans opened equaling or even surpassing 2008 levels. The above chart reflects all credit grades, so one might think that this change is a result of the change in the credit origination mix. By digging a little deeper into the data, we can control for the VantageScore® credit score at the loan opening, or origination date, and review performance by looking at two different score segments separately. Is there concern for Superprime and Prime consumers auto loans? In the chart immediately below, the same analysis as above has been conducted, but only for trades originated by Superprime and Prime consumers at the time of origination. You can see that although the trend is not as pronounced as when all grades are considered, even these tiers of consumers are showing significant increases in their 60+ days past due (DPD) rates in recent vintages. Separately, looking at the Subprime and Deep Subprime segments, you can really see the dramatic changes that have occurred in the performance of recent auto vintages. Holding score segments constant, the data indicates a rate of credit deterioration in the Subprime and Deep Subprime segments that we have not observed since at least 2008 — back to when we started tracking this data. What’s concerning here is not only the absolute values of the vintage delinquencies but also the trend, which is moving upward for all three time periods. Where does the risk fall? Now that we see the evidence of the deterioration of credit performance across the credit spectrum, one might ask – who is bearing the risk in these recent vintages? Taking a closer look at the chart below, you can see the significant increase in the volumes of loans across lender type, but particularly interesting to me is the increase in 2016 for the Captive Auto lenders and Credit Unions, who are hitting highs in their lending volumes in recent quarters. If the above trend holds and the trajectory continues, this suggests exposure issues for those lenders with higher volumes in recent months. What does this mean for your business? Speak to Experian's global consulting practice to learn more. Learn more Just to be thorough, let's continue and look at the relative amounts of loans going to the different score segments by each of the lender types. Comparing the lender type and the score segments (below) reveals that finance lenders have a greater than average exposure to the Subprime and Deep Subprime segments. To summarize, although auto lending has recently been viewed as a segment where loan performance is good, relative to historical levels, I believe, the above data signals a striking change in that perspective. Recent loan performance has weakened to a point where comparing the 2008 vintage with 2015 vintage, one might not be able to distinguish between the two. // <![CDATA[ var elems={'winWidth':window.innerWidth,'winTol':600,'rotTol':800,'hgtTol':1500}, updRes=function(){var xAxislabelSize=function(){if(elems.winWidth<elems.winTol){return'12px'}else{return'14px'}},xAxislabelRotation=function(){if(elems.winWidth<elems.rotTol){return-90}else{return 0}},seriesLabelSize=function(){if(elems.winWidth<elems.winTol){return'12px'}else{return'16px'}},legenLabelSize=function(){if(elems.winWidth<elems.winTol){return'12px'}else{return'16px'}},chartHeight=function(){if(elems.winWidth<elems.rotTol){return 600}else{return 400}},labelInside=function(){if(elems.winWidth<elems.rotTol){return false}else{return true}},chartStack=function(){if(elems.winWidth<elems.rotTol){return null}else{return'normal'}};this.sourceRef=function(){return['Source: Experian.com']};this.seriesColor=function(){return['#982881','#0d6eb6','#26478D','#d72b80','#575756','#b02383']};this.chartFontFamily=function(){return'"Roboto",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif'};this.xAxislabelSize=function(){return xAxislabelSize()};this.xAxislabelOverflow=function(){return'none'};this.xAxislabelRotation=function(){return xAxislabelRotation()};this.seriesLabelSize=function(){return seriesLabelSize()};this.legenLabelSize=function(){return legenLabelSize()};this.chartHeight=function(){return chartHeight()};this.labelInside=function(){return labelInside()};this.chartStack=function(){return chartStack()}}(), updY=function(chart){var points=chart.series[0].points;for(var i=0;i elems.rotTol){if(thisWidth<20){var y=points[i].dataLabel.y;y-=10;points[i].dataLabel.css({color:'#575756'}).attr({y:y-thisWidth})}}}},updX=function(chart){var points=chart.series[0].points;for(var i=0;i elems.rotTol){if(thisWidth

When it comes to buying a vehicle, we found that consumers who owned a Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) used vehicle are most loyal to the original vehicle manufacturer — to the tune of 75% — when purchasing another CPO used vehicle. Consumer buying patterns show that the loyalty rate to the manufacturer is also high when: Moving from a new vehicle to another new vehicle (60.9%). Switching from a CPO used vehicle to a new vehicle (54.1%). By understanding loyalty rates and other key market trends, manufacturers, dealers and resellers can make smarter decisions that create more opportunities for themselves and in-market consumers. More insights>  

The consumer economy has evolved dramatically over the past few years — in large part due to technology and access to large amounts of data. Credit data, especially, can be a powerful asset for financial institutions in this new environment. More than 88 million U.S. consumers use their smartphone to do some form of banking. 67% of consumers made purchases across multiple channels in the last six months. With the help of data scientists, financial institutions can build models that crunch huge volumes of data and append their own customer data to drive portfolio management, customer acquisition and collections decisions across digital and mobile channels. Learn more>

Big changes for the new year 2017 is expected to bring some big changes. But what do those changes mean for the financial services space? Here are 3 trends and twists Experian expects to occur over the next 12 months: Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress will move forward with a deregulatory agenda. Recognizing and scoring more previously invisible consumers through alternative data sources will be emphasized. Personalized credit offers delivered via multiple digital channels in a sequenced, trackable manner. What are your predictions for 2017? Only time will tell, but we’re certain that regulations and advancements in digital will be huuuge. >>More 2017 trends

Experian integrated Cloudera Enterprise onto its cloud environment so clients can make innovative decisions in milliseconds with data as the core technology.

Internet-connected devices provide endless possibilities, but they rely on technology and collected data to deliver on their promises. This can compromise your network security. Follow these tips to enjoy the conveniences provided by Internet of Things devices while keeping your network safe. Look for devices that use end-to-end encryption. Change default passwords before connecting devices to your network. Enable two-factor authentication, when available. Leverage all security options, such as passwords, encryption, firewalls and firmware. The Internet of Things is only as strong as its weakest link. That's why it’s so important to understand and treat each connected device as part of a broader network. More security tips

The holidays can be a stressful time for consumers — and an important time for lenders to anticipate the aftermath of big credit card spending. According to our recent study with Edelman Intelligence: 56% of respondents said holiday shopping puts a strain on their finances. 43% said the stress of holiday shopping makes it difficult to enjoy the season. With the holiday shopping season over, those hefty credit card statements are coming soon. Now is the time for lenders to prepare for the January and February consolidations. Want to know more?

Using digital technology like a big bank How was your holiday? Are the chargebacks rolling in yet? It’s no secret - digital technology like mobile device usage has increased significantly over the years, making it a breeding ground for fraudsters. As credit unions continue to grow their membership, their fraud security treatments need to grow as well. Bigger banks are constantly updating their fraud tools and strategies to fight against cybercrime and, therefore, fraudsters are setting their eyes on credit unions. Even as I write this, fraudsters are searching and targeting credit unions that don’t have their mobile channel secured. They attempt to capitalize on any weakness or opportunity: Registering stolen cards to mobile wallets Taking over an account via mobile banking apps Using a retailers’ mobile app to make fraudulent payments Disabling the SIM card in the victim’s phone and diverting the one-time password sent through text message to their own phones These are clever ways to commit fraud. But credit unions are becoming wise to these new threats and are serious about protecting their members. They are incorporating device intelligence with a solid identity authentication service. This multi-layered approach is essential to securing mobile channels, and protecting your Credit Union from chargebacks. To learn more about our fraud solutions, click here.

As we kick off the new year, let’s take a look at some interesting things we learned about data quality in 2016. Our latest data quality report found some concerning statistics about companies and their data quality: 56% of organizations report losing sales opportunities due to bad data. 79% say data clearly ties directly to business objectives, but only 2% trust their data completely. 83% report that poor data quality impacts their business initiatives. Data is at the heart of your organization, and the quality of that data underpins the success of many of your business initiatives. Implementing a successful data quality program, therefore, is imperative to your organization’s future. Building a business case for data quality

Fraud and cybersecurity are two of the biggest risks challenging organizations and the economy today. Fraud has become its own industry, to the tune of $500 billion in estimated losses annually. To strengthen your fraud risk strategies, you need: A multilayered authentication and risk-based approach to prevent fraud. A comprehensive approach to identity with true customer intelligence. To avoid silos and recognize the value of combining your solutions into one platform. The rapid growth of fraud-related activity only reinforces the need for aggressive fraud prevention strategies and the adoption of new technology to prepare for the latest emerging cybersecurity threats. Want to know more?

At Experian, we’re proud to be the backbone of financial progress. We’re making sense of data and information in powerful new ways. For example, we are: Opening credit bureaus in developing countries, where access to credit was virtually non-existent. Finding new ways to help consumers better understand credit and how to impact their financial future. Protecting consumers from identity theft and businesses from fraud. Volunteering our time and expertise to improve the communities in which we live and work. We’re investing in the future, through new technologies, talented people and innovations – all of it to help create a better tomorrow. Want to know more?

Looking to score more consumers, but worried about increased risk? A recent VantageScore® LLC study found that consumers rendered “unscoreable” by commonly used credit scoring models are nearly identical in their financial and credit behavior to scoreable consumers. To get a more detailed financial portrait of the “expanded” population, credit files were supplemented with demographic and economic data. The study found: Consumers who scored above 620 using the VantageScore® credit score exhibited profiles of sufficient quality to justify mortgage loans on par with those of conventionally scoreable consumers. 3 to 2.5 million – a majority of the 3.4 million consumers categorized as potentially eligible for mortgages – demonstrated sufficient income to support a mortgage in their geographic areas. The findings demonstrate that the VantageScore® credit score is a scalable solution to expanding mortgage credit without relaxing credit standards should the FHFA and GSEs accept VantageScore® credit scores. Want to know more?

Technology sharing can unlock a more effective strategy in fighting fraud. Experian’s multi-layered and risk-based approach to fraud management is discussed as many businesses are learning that combining data and technology to strengthen their fraud risk strategies can help reduce losses. Evolving fraud schemes, changes in regulatory requirements and the advent of new digital initiatives make it difficult for businesses to manage all of the tools needed to keep up with the relentless pace of change.

Happy holidays! It’s the holiday season and a festive time of year. Colorful lights, comfort food and holiday songs – all of these things contribute to the celebratory atmosphere which causes many people to let their guards down and many businesses to focus more on service than on risk. Unfortunately, fraudsters and other criminals can make one of the busiest shopping times of the year, a miserable one for their victims. The nature of the stolen data has the potential to create long-term headaches for the organization and tens of millions of individuals. Unlike a retailer or financial breach, where stolen payment cards can be deactivated and new ones issued, the theft of permanent identity information is, well, not easily corrected. You can’t simply reissue Social Security numbers, birth dates, names and addresses. For individuals, we need to internalize this fact: our data has likely been breached, and we need to become vigilant and defend ourselves. Sign-up for a credit monitoring service to be alerted if your data or ID is being used in ways that indicate fraud. Include your children, as well. A child’s identity is far more valuable to a fraudster as they know it can be several years before their stolen identity is detected. The good news is, in addition to the credit bureau, many banks and auto clubs now offer this as a service to their customers. For organizations, the focus should be on two fronts: data protection and fraud prevention. Not just to prevent financial theft, but to preserve trust — trust between organizations and consumers, as well as widespread consumer trust.  Organizations must strive to evolve data protection controls and fraud prevention skills to minimize the damage caused by stolen identity data. There are dozens of tools in the industry for identifying that a consumer is who they say they are – and these products are an important part of any anti-fraud strategy.  These options may tell you that the combination of elements is the consumer, but do you know that it is the REAL consumer presenting them? The smart solution is to use a broad data set for not only identity verification, but also to check linkage and velocity of use.  For example: Is the name linking to other addresses being presented in the past week? Is the phone number showing up to other addresses and names over the past 30 days? Has the SSN matched to other names over the past 90 days? Since yesterday the address matches to four phone numbers and two names – is this a problem? And it must be done in ways that reinforce the trust between consumers and organizations, enhance the customer experience, and frustrate criminals.  Click here to learn more about Experian’s products and services that can help. As we go walking in the winter wonderland, remember, the holiday season is a time for cheer… and vigilance!