Pickups are the most common vehicle in operation at 20% share today and hold 16.5% of new vehicle registrations in the market in Q1 2019.

There are thousands of potential car buyers heading into dealerships and browsing websites for their next vehicle every day. And that means thousands of opportunities for automotive manufacturers to market their vehicles to prospective buyers. But not every vehicle is going to meet the needs and wants of every car buyer. So, how do automotive brand marketers reach the individuals most likely to be interested in their products? Simply put, it comes down to better understanding the brand’s audience. But, today’s digitally-driven world creates a significant challenge for brand marketers – the overreliance on mobile devices and digital channels creates hundreds of digital touchpoints for brand marketers to consider. But, the data also creates an opportunity. If automotive marketers can bridge the gap between online and offline touchpoints, they’ll be better positioned to develop messages that resonate with their desired audience and deliver communications through the most effective channels. The end result? More meaningful interaction with potential car buyers. To get there, automotive marketers need to consider these concepts: Navigate the identity resolution process The secret to a more relevant conversation begins and ends with knowing who you are addressing. People interact with brands through a variety of channels. For example, a person may see an advertisement for a new vehicle on their smartphone, later research the same vehicle at home on their desktop or on a mobile app and test drive the vehicle a few days later. The automotive marketer that can reconcile these three different interactions will be able to deliver relevant advertisements to the individual and cut down on wasted advertising spend. Knowledge-based identity resolution is what allows you to be smarter with your marketing. Present the right offer People are bombarded with hundreds, if not thousands, of advertisements daily. Automotive marketers need to cut through the noise and deliver messages that resonate with the target audience – whether it’s through e-newsletters, 30-second TV spots, banner ads or direct mail pieces. If automotive manufacturers miss the mark, it could lead to a frustrated consumer and poor brand reputation. For instance, an automotive marketer would not want to advertise the latest minivan to a couple who are empty nesters. Create customer loyalty It’s important to stay on top of current market statistics and data to fine-tune marketing campaigns. Vehicle ownership and purchase patterns can vary greatly in each market, and that means brands might need to fine-tune long-term loyalty strategies. A loyalty program that works in the Northeast might not work well for the Midwest market based on car buying patterns and the reasons behind owning a car. Data can help prioritize resources in areas with the highest potential for sales growth. Experian Marketing EngineTM helps automotive manufacturers engage customers across every channel while making the most of a marketing budget. It’s designed to seamlessly collect, consolidate and use customer data by connecting offline and online identifiers to create a single customer view. Experian’s North American Vehicle Database alone has over 11 billion records and over 900 million vehicles, of which over 68 million are Canadian vehicles. Marketing Engine leverages automotive specific insights, including vehicle purchase behaviors and ownership data, and combines that with other marketing data such as demographics and lifestyle interests. These automotive tools provide a more unified approach so that brands can make more informed decisions, gain and retain new customers, and drive sales. Learn more at https://www.experian.com/automotive/marketing.

Vehicle affordability has been a main topic of conversation in the auto industry for some time, and based on the data, it’s not going unnoticed by consumers. The average new vehicle loan in Q1 2019 reached $32,187, while the average new vehicle monthly loan payment hit $554. How are car shoppers reacting? Perhaps the biggest shift in Q1 2019 was the growth of prime and super prime customers opting for used vehicles. The percentage of prime (61.88 percent) and super-prime (44.78 percent) consumers choosing used vehicles reached an all-time high in Q1 2019, according to Experian data. Not only are we seeing new payment amounts increase, but used loan amounts and payments are on the rise as well, though the delta between the two can be one of the reason we’re seeing more prime and super prime opt for used. The average used vehicle loan was slightly above $20,000 in Q1 2019, while the average used vehicle payment was $391. We know that consumers often shop based on the monthly payment amount, and given the $163 difference between average monthly payments for new and used, it’s not surprising to see more people opt for used vehicles. Another way that consumers can look to have a smaller payment amount is through leasing. We’re continuing to see that the top vehicles leased are more expensive CUVs, trucks and SUVs, which are pricier vehicles to purchase. But with the average lease payment being $457 per month, there’s an average difference of $97 compared to loan payments. In Q1 2019, leasing was down slightly year-over-year, but still accounted for 29.07 percent of all vehicle financing. On the other side of the affordability equation, beyond cost of vehicles, is concern around delinquencies: will consumers be able to make their payments in a timely manner? So far, so good. In Q1 2019, 30-day delinquencies saw an increase to 1.98 percent, up from 1.9 percent a year ago. That said, banks, credit unions and finance companies all saw slight decreases in 30-day delinquency rates, and 60-day delinquencies remained relatively stable at 0.68 percent year-over-year. It’s important to keep in mind that the 30-day delinquency rate is still well-below the high-water mark in Q1 2009 (2.81 percent). The vehicle finance market appears to remain strong overall, despite rising vehicle costs, loan amounts and monthly payments. Expect consumers to continue to find ways to minimize monthly payments. This could continue the shift into used vehicles. Overall, as long as delinquencies stay flat and vehicle sales don’t taper too badly, the auto finance market should stay on a positive course. To watch the full Q1 2019 State of the Automotive Finance Market webinar, click here.

There were 276 million vehicles on the road in Q1 2019.

Consumer credit trends and markets are constantly evolving, particularly when it comes to originations and delinquencies on mortgages, credit cards and auto loans. According to Experian research, over 2.7 million out of 89 million active automotive loans and leases are either 30 or 60 days delinquent. Triggers that signal a greater likelihood of consumers falling delinquent on loans, mortgages and credit card payments, include high-interest rates, a high utilization rate and recent derogatory trades. By tracking and forecasting consumer trends over time, you can more easily predict consumer behavior and better prepare for potential issues within each market. Join Gavin Harding, Experian Senior Business Consultant, and Alan Ikemura, Experian Data Analytics Senior Product Manager, during our live Quarterly Credit Trends webinar on May 30 at 2:00 p.m. ET. Our expert speakers will provide a view of the real estate market and share insights on the latest consumer credit trends. Highlights include: 2019 economic drivers Q1 2019 origination and delinquency trends Mortgage Home equity Bankcard Auto Register now

Beginning with the birth of stock muscle cars, like the Pontiac GTO, vehicles with powerful V8 engines permeated the roads in the 1960s. Given consumers’ “need for speed,” these vehicles were synonymous with American culture following World War II - some going as far as to call muscle cars as American as apple pie. It’s no doubt that these vehicles have made an undeniable lasting impression on the automotive industry. Today, there are still automotive enthusiasts who appreciate the style and strength of the muscle car, but most of us want practical vehicles with better fuel economy and easy maintenance. This has resulted in a dramatic increase in the volume of 4-cylinder vehicles on the road.   As seen in the graphic above, over the last 11 years, 4-cylinder engines have increased in volume over 55%, 6-cylinder have declined 4% and 8-cylinders have increased 9.8%. More power, smaller engines This trend doesn’t necessarily mean that those of us who elect for a smaller engine size aren’t able to satisfy our need for speed. Horsepower has received a significant boost over the past two decades. This has been partially driven by EPA guidelines, as manufacturers have implemented engine enhancements to increase gas mileage to meet the guidelines, resulting in higher horsepower. 4-cylinder engines have as much horsepower today as 6-cylinder engines had in 2003. That gives today’s drivers a lot more pep in engine performance. Similarly, today's 6-cylinder engines have nearly the same horsepower today that V8s had in 2009. Where does that leave true muscle car enthusiasts? Well, if you are looking for raw power, things are looking up. In 2018, V8 engines averaged a whopping 370.4 horsepower, nearly double V8 output of 204 horsepower in 1999. Those who buy V8s today have power to burn. Above chart detailing percentage of total volume count and average vehicle MAX HP over history. The automotive market is driven by consumer preferences and offers a range of engine options, which provides something for everyone. The boost in horesepower in today’s engines provides a nice mix of fuel economy and performance. While muscle cars remain an important fixture in American society and automotive culture, demand has shifted and understanding these data points in the broader industry context empowers dealers to make the right inventory decisions. To learn more about the latest automotive trends impacting the marketplace, view the full Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis.

When it comes to new vehicle registration, there is one segment that stands out from the pack: crossover vehicles. According to Experian’s Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis, over the last four years, crossovers (CUVs) have spiked in popularity, representing about a third of new vehicle registrations in 2014 (34.1 percent), but growing to nearly half the new vehicle market in 2018 (47.6 percent). In fact, the large growth in CUVs isn’t limited to just the last four years – there was a large volume of growth year-over-year compared to 2017; the share has grown nearly 4 percent. Sedans and hatchbacks, meanwhile, have seen their share decrease year-over-year. The charts below detail this change in market, based on Experian’s latest 2018 quarterly findings. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) What’s driving this growth? Across the board, the number of light-duty vehicles on the road continues to increase, up to 275.3 million in the U.S. market, at the end of 2018, compared to 271.4 million a year prior. The growth in CUVs isn’t entirely unprecedented, as it’s been going on for a number of years.  CUVs continue to grow in popularity for a variety of reasons including: Greater visibility, as the driver sits higher than in a sedan/coupe Larger storage capacities for passengers or cargo Number of varieties available, such as size, engines, and manufactures Higher fuel efficiency than a full-size SUV or minivan Currently, there are over 130 different CUV/SUV Make/Model combos offered, and of those, the different engines, options, etc. drive that volume even higher. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) Potential for growth Currently, there are only two CUVs among the top vehicles in the aftermarket “sweet spot.” Vehicles in the sweet spot are 6 to 12 model years old, and typically aged out of general OEM warranties for any repairs. These vehicles likely require more part replacement services, which may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers. According to Experian data, the sweet spot has stopped falling and has settled for now. But, there is expected growth of the number of vehicles that fall into the sweet spot over the coming years. One of the segments where the aftermarket industry can begin to focus on will be CUVs. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) The aftermarket can use this data to make more informed product decisions, specifically, around the high volume of CUVs expected to come into the sweet spot. With the number of vehicle options available on the market today, CUVs will continue to stand out as a segment to watch within the auto industry. There’s a greater story beyond the numbers and understanding how to leverage the data at hand can provide the industry with a greater understanding of CUVs and its potential for even greater growth. To learn more about CUVs/SUVs and total vehicles in operation, view the full Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis.

There’s recently been a significant amount of discussion about the stability of the automotive finance industry. Many fear the increase in the volume of delinquent U.S. automotive loans may be an early stage harbinger of the downfall of the automotive industry. But, the fact is, that’s not entirely true. While we certainly want to keep a close eye on the volume of delinquent loans, it’s important to put these trends into context. We’ve seen a steady increase in the volume of outstanding loan balances for the past several years – though the growth has slowed the past few quarters. And while much of the increase is driven by higher loan amounts, it also means there’s been an overall higher volume of vehicle buyers leaning on automotive lenders to finance vehicles. In fact, findings from our Q4 2018 State of the Automotive Finance Market Report show 85.1 percent of all new vehicle purchases were financed in Q4 2018 – compare that to 81.4 percent in Q4 2010 and 78.2 percent in Q4 2006. Suffice it to say, more financed vehicles will undoubtedly lead to more delinquent loans. But that also means, there is a high volume of car buyers who continue to pay their automotive loans in a timely manner. Through Q4 2018, there were nearly 86 million automotive loans and leases that were in good standing. With a higher volume of automotive loans than in the past, we should pay close attention to the percentage of delinquent loans compared to the overall market and compare that to previous years. And when we examine findings from our report, the percentage of automotive loans and leases that were 30-days past due dropped from 2.36 percent to 2.32 percent compared to a year ago. When we look at loans and leases that were 60-days past due, the percentages are relatively stable (up slightly from 0.76 percent to 0.78 percent compared to a year ago). It’s worth noting, these percentages are well below the high-water mark set during Q4 2009 when 3.30 percent of loans were 30-days delinquent and 0.94 percent of loans were 60-days delinquent. But, while the rate of delinquency is down and/or relatively stable year-over-year, it has trended upward since Q4 2015 – we’ll want to stay close to these trends. That said, much of the increase in the percentage of 60-day delinquent automotive loans is a result of a higher percentage of deep subprime loans from previous years – high-risk originations that become delinquent often occur more than 16 months after the origination. Additionally, the percentage of deep subprime originations has steadily decreased over the past two years, which could lead to a positive impact on the percentage of delinquent automotive loans. Despite rising automotive loan amounts and monthly payments, the data shows consumers appear to be making their payments on-time – an encouraging sign for automotive lenders. That said, lenders will want to continue to keep a close eye on all facets of car buyers’ payment performance moving forward – but it is important to put it into context. A clear understanding of these trends will better position lenders to make the right decisions when analyzing risk and provide consumers with comprehensive automotive financing options. To learn more about the State of the Automotive Finance Market report, or to watch the webinar, click here.    

Like every other industry, the automotive market is driven by consumer preferences and behavior. While there are a myriad of options to choose from, fuel-type seems to dominate media headlines as a hot topic of conversation among industry pundits and consumers, alike. Little surprise then that alternative fuel vehicles, which include diesels and hybrids, have maintained a steady demand over the past few years. But, there’s a specific segment that’s beginning to emerge. As we detailed in our earlier blog series, electric vehicles (EVs) are began to stand out as a prominent alternative fuel vehicle. And during Q3 2018, we saw more of the same. EVs held 1.8 percent share of total vehicle registrations. While that number may seem small, consider this.  Just two years ago, in 2016, EVs comprised only 0.5 percent of registrations, growing at a much slower pace since 2014, when it was 0.4 percent. It’s worth noting that gasoline-powered cars still dominate the market, making up 92.9 percent of registered vehicles through Q3 2018. But, the demand for alternative fuel type options should not be underestimated. Alternative fuel vehicles are becoming a significant segment in today’s auto market, and the large growth in EVs are a testament to that growth. While EVs are proving to be a popular option compared to other alternative fuel types, other options remained steady. Diesel vehicles maintained 2.8 percent of the market year-over-year, while hybrid vehicles saw a slight increase since 2017, growing from 2.6 to 2.8 percent of the market. A picture of the alternative fuel buyer So, who’s investing in these alternative fuel vehicles? We see that most buyers tend to be married, single family home owners with a college education, and belong to either the Baby Boomer generation or Gen X. It’s interesting to note that EVs make up a notable percentage of registrations of alternative fuel type preferences across generational car buyers, according to Q3 registration data. Among Baby Boomers, EVs fall second to hybrids, accounting for 1.0 percent of registered alternative fuel type vehicles compared to 1.2 percent respectively. But, EVs made up the biggest share of alternative fuel type registrations among Millennials (1.1 percent) and Gen X’ers (1.2 percent). With the number of vehicle options available on the market today, EVs stand out as a segment to watch within the auto industry. There’s a greater story beyond the numbers and understanding how to leverage the data at hand can provide the industry with a greater understanding of the EV market and its potential. To learn more about the electric vehicle market and other alternative fuel type vehicles, view the full Q3 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis webinar.

A closer look at the data shows GM’s losses might not be particularly significant, despite the announcement of discontinued models.

Experian Boost gives consumers greater control over their credit profiles by allowing them to add non-traditional credit information to their Experian credit file.

Today, we’re excited to announce that AutoCheck® has received a facelift! AutoCheck has always been the industrial strength Vehicle History Report that automotive professionals trust to help manage risk and confidently buy and sell the right vehicles. We’ve made this great tool even greater by adding more data and accident insights than ever before and improving the user experience by making it easier to read across all mobile devices. Among the data and insights updated within AutoCheck: Updated display of how buyback protection details are presented Vehicle ownership history presentation Vehicle use history details Updated accident and damage check sections Updated display of how title brand information is displayed Updated odometer check Open safety recall information, inspection, service and repair history checks Based on extensive research, we’ve added many visual changes which make it easier for dealers and cars shoppers to understand and use the full report. One noticeable change is the addition of the Experian logo and color scheme. Experian continues to invest significantly in building a widely recognized and trusted brand. Reinforcing that AutoCheck is backed by Experian’s rich data and industry expertise will resonate with consumers as they look for a trusted source to confidently move along their vehicle shopping journey. The AutoCheck Score® has a new visualization, designed after an automotive-themed gauge to illustrate if the vehicle’s AutoCheck Score is below, within or above the score range for similar vehicles. Making the score easier to use and understand will help consumers better compare their vehicle to other similar vehicles currently in the market. We’ve also made the report easier to use and access for both consumers and dealers. AutoCheck is now optimized for tablet and mobile users, providing even more shopping convenience for users. As always, dealers can access the new report via AutoCheck Fast Link℠ for their online vehicle listings and through multiple integrations within their DMS or inventory management solution. The report will still be available directly from AutoCheck.com for consumers and AutoCheck.com/members for dealers. In addition, the report is available through most dealer platforms and all premier consumer automotive portals.   Check out the full report redesign changes, updates and some additional highlights below. Updated AutoCheck® Buyback Protection Information As always, AutoCheck will buy back your vehicle if your AutoCheck report fails to list certain title brands available to Experian at the time the report was issued. Items impacting Buyback protection are now grouped together, so users can clearly see what data impacts Buyback qualification.  Items that do not impact Buyback are captured in other areas of the report. Buyback Protection badging for eligible clients displays on the first page as well as in the specific State Title Brand section if the vehicle is, or is not, Buyback protected. NEW: Owner History AutoCheck now displays information for the current, last and previous vehicle ownership. The report will now highlight the year and state the vehicle was purchased from as well as the ownership date ranges and length of ownership. NEW: Vehicle Usage AutoCheck now clearly highlights the historical usage activity level for the vehicle, whether it was used as Personal, Fleet, Rental, Lease, Taxi, Livery, Police, Government, Drivers Ed and/or Commercial. NEW: Damage Check Section We have added a new Damage Check section to more clearly illustrate the historical activity for the vehicle.  The Damage Check section will highlight damage records from auctions, salvage, or independent sources such as recycling and crash tests. We will continue to offer the Accident Check section, which highlights accident dates and location from government sources and independent agencies. The Damage Check section will highlight damage records from auctions, salvage auctions or independent sources such as recycling and crash tests.   Other Title Brand and Specific Event check: Other title brands that are not included in Buyback protection qualification will be listed here. In addition, event activity such as theft and insurance loss is also included in this section. UPDATED: Odometer Check We have combined information to provide one place for all odometer related history checks.  State title odometer check reflects all odometer related brands from the state such as Exceeds Mechanical Limits (EML), Not Actual Mileage (NAM) and Broken Odometer (BRK). Auction odometer check are the odometer brands either reported to auctions or upon inspection in auction announcements. The odometer calculation check is Experian’s proprietary odometer sequence calculation to determine if there are any potential discrepancies. NEW: ‘Check’ sections: To highlight specific data for easier reference and understanding, we have added an open safety recall check, Inspection history check, and service and repair history check section. What do all these changes mean for dealers and their customers? They have an easier-to-use AutoCheck VHR with more comprehensive information than ever. For dealers, it will help with their buying decisions at auction or on trade-ins. For consumers, it provides even more peace of mind when making a used vehicle purchase decision. Ultimately, it improves the shopping process for everyone involved and can help dealers develop even stronger relationships with their customers.   Want to learn even more about AutoCheck? Visit our site for more details: https://www.experian.com/lp/automotive/autocheck-dealer-lp

Auto dealers need to move their dealerships forward through hyper-local advertising that helps them connect with the right audiences at the right time.

Subprime originations hit the lowest overall share of the market seen in 11 years, but does that mean people are being locked out car ownership? Not necessarily, according to the Q3 State of the Automotive Finance Market report.To gain accurate insights from the vast amount of data available, it’s important to look at the entire picture that is created by the data. The decrease in subprime originations is due to many factors, one of which being that credit scores are increasing across the board (average is now 717 for new and 661 for used), which naturally shifts more consumers into the higher credit tiers. Loan origination market share are just one of the trends seen in this quarter’s report. Ultimately, examining the data can help inform lenders and help them make the right lending decisions. Exploring options for affordability While consumers analyze different possibilities to ensure their monthly payments are affordable, leasing is one of the more reasonable options in terms of monthly payments. In fact, the difference between the average new lease payment and new car payment usually averages more $100—and sometimes well over—which is a significant amount for the average American budget. In fact, leases of new vehicles are hovering around 30 percent, which is one of the factors that is aiding in new car sales. In turn, this then helps the used-vehicle market, as the high number of leases create a larger supply of quality use vehicles when they come off-lease and make their way back into the market. On-time payments continue to improve As consumer preferences continue to trend towards more expensive vehicles, such as crossovers, SUVs, and pickups, affordability will continue to be a topic of discussion. But consumers appear to be managing the higher prices, as in addition to the tactics mentioned above, 30- and 60-day delinquency rates declined since Q3 2017, from 2.39 percent to 2.23 percent and 0.76 percent to 0.72 percent, respectively. The automotive finance market is one where the old saying “no news is good news” continues to remain true. While there aren’t significant changes in the numbers quarter over quarter, this signals that the market is at a good place in its cycle. To learn more about the State of the Automotive Finance Market report, or to watch the webinar, click here.

Your model is only as good as your data, right? Actually, there are many considerations in developing a sound model, one of which is data. Yet if your data is bad or dirty or doesn’t represent the full population, can it be used? This is where sampling can help. When done right, sampling can lower your cost to obtain data needed for model development. When done well, sampling can turn a tainted and underrepresented data set into a sound and viable model development sample. First, define the population to which the model will be applied once it’s finalized and implemented. Determine what data is available and what population segments must be represented within the sampled data. The more variability in internal factors — such as changes in marketing campaigns, risk strategies and product launches — and external factors — such as economic conditions or competitor presence in the marketplace — the larger the sample size needed. A model developer often will need to sample over time to incorporate seasonal fluctuations in the development sample. The most robust samples are pulled from data that best represents the full population to which the model will be applied. It’s important to ensure your data sample includes customers or prospects declined by the prior model and strategy, as well as approved but nonactivated accounts. This ensures full representation of the population to which your model will be applied. Also, consider the number of predictors or independent variables that will be evaluated during model development, and increase your sample size accordingly. When it comes to spotting dirty or unacceptable data, the golden rule is know your data and know your target population. Spend time evaluating your intended population and group profiles across several important business metrics. Don’t underestimate the time needed to complete a thorough evaluation. Next, select the data from the population to aptly represent the population within the sampled data. Determine the best sampling methodology that will support the model development and business objectives. Sampling generates a smaller data set for use in model development, allowing the developer to build models more quickly. Reducing the data set’s size decreases the time needed for model computation and saves storage space without losing predictive performance. Once the data is selected, weights are applied so that each record appropriately represents the full population to which the model will be applied. Several traditional techniques can be used to sample data: Simple random sampling — Each record is chosen by chance, and each record in the population has an equal chance of being selected. Random sampling with replacement — Each record chosen by chance is included in the subsequent selection. Random sampling without replacement — Each record chosen by chance is removed from subsequent selections. Cluster sampling — Records from the population are sampled in groups, such as region, over different time periods. Stratified random sampling — This technique allows you to sample different segments of the population at different proportions. In some situations, stratified random sampling is helpful in selecting segments of the population that aren’t as prevalent as other segments but are equally vital within the model development sample. Learn more about how Experian Decision Analytics can help you with your custom model development needs.