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According to Experian’s latest Global Insights Report, 38% of consumers expect to increase their online activity in the next 12 months. The report also found that consumers continue to have high expectations for their online experience, and businesses are re-imagining the customer journey to reflect that need. This January, Experian surveyed 3,000 consumers and 900 businesses to explore the changes in consumer behavior and business strategy pre- and post-COVID-19. As consumers have embraced life online, they’ve continued to emphasize their feelings regarding the importance of protecting their information. More than half of consumers still consider security to be the most important factor in their digital experience – the same experience they have such high expectations of. Business are acting in turn, with more than half investing in fraud detection methods or software to reduce friction in the customer experience. Digital transformation is also highlighting the need to: Manage regulatory compliance Integrate security measures Ensure access to AI models Attract and manage customers Integrate automation solutions Download the report to get all the latest insights into consumer desires and business behaviors, and keep visiting the Insights blog for a deeper dive into US-specific findings. Download report  

When I worked as a junior analyst for one of the largest credit card issuers in the United States, the chief credit risk officer required the development of a “light switch report” and strongly encouraged everyone in her organization to read the report every day. She called it the light switch report because every morning when she walks into her office and the lights switch on, she would read the report and understand what’s going on with the business. I took her advice and developed the habit of reading the light switch report every morning — for more than a decade while I was with the organization. I knew the volume of applications, the approval rate and the average line of credit of approvals. I developed an informed idea of how delinquency rates would look six months into the future based on the average credit score of approvals today. Her advice was valuable, and the discipline she shared helped me develop my skill sets as a junior analyst, a people manager and head of a retail business line. Performance reports are foundational and are one of the key elements of a sound and prudent risk management framework. Regulators require effective monitoring reports and provide guidance on report generation as part of its examination process. (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Comptroller’s Handbook, Retail Lending Safety and Soundness. April 2017. Page 15.) While supporting lender clients on strategy designs and development, I have an opportunity to review various performance reports. I’d like to take this time to reiterate some of the basic components of a good performance report. Knowledge of audience is primary. Good performance reports are tailored for specific audiences who can make decisions that will affect specific outcomes. Performance reports for day-to-day monitoring would be different from reports designed for executive leadership. Transparency and accuracy are required and when reports are designed in support of areas of responsibility, those reports become meaningful and transformative. Relevant metrics matter. Once you identify the report’s audience, the metrics you choose to appear in the report become the next important exercise. Metrics should be relevant and consistent with the audience who’s expected, upon reviewing the report, to make statements such as the business is doing well and stable, or corrective action is needed. For example, a report on the predictive power of credit risk scores intended for model developers will likely contain metrics such Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS), Gini index or worst scoring capture rate. Such reports won’t include the average handling time of an application, which will be more appropriate for an operations team. Metrics become even more powerful for decision-makers when calculated at a segment level. I’m a big fan of vintage reports. They tell the story of current lending practices (e.g., approval rates, average loan amount, average booked credit risk score), and more significantly they often foretell future performance (e.g., delinquency rates, charge-off rates). These foresights allow analysts and managers to plan and develop strategies today to manage the future state. If approve or decline decisions use a dual score matrix, generate a report showing the volume of applications on the dual score matrix. It’s quicker to spot unusual distributions compared to expectations when data is presented at this sublevel. The benefit is swifter modification or new actions when needed. If statistical designs are utilized, such as test or control segments and champion or challenger segments, metrics calculated at these levels become insightful. They allow validation of a randomized process and support statistical analysis and statements. Timeliness of reports is critical. Some reports for operational or technology purposes require constant and continuous reporting. Daily reports are important especially when new strategies are implemented. Sometimes daily reports are far more relevant within the first two or three weeks of a new strategy implementation. When daily reports show stabilization and alignment to expectations, switching to weekly or monthly reports is acceptable. Most retail products are designed for review on a cycle or monthly basis. Monthly and quarterly reports are milestones and provide good health checks of the business. Don’t forget formats. If a picture is worth a thousand words, then use charts and graphs to display data and capture audience attention. We’re all used to seeing data presented in tables, but there are far more applications today that allow us to read reports with compelling graphics, trendlines and patterns that grab our curiosity and draw us into the story. I like narratives even if they appear as headlines on a report. Succinct comments show discipline and convey understanding of a report’s contents. Effective performance reports evolve as the business changes. Audience, metrics and segments will change, but the basic components provide general guidelines on developing consistent and relevant reports.

Do you know what the patented AutoCheck Score represents?  The AutoCheck Score predicts the likelihood an individual vehicle will be on the road in five years.

Over the last several weeks, I’ve shared articles about the problems surrounding third-party, first-party and synthetic identity fraud. To wrap up this series, I’d like to talk about account takeover fraud and how digital transformation has impacted it over the last year. What is account takeover fraud? Account takeover fraud is a form of identity theft that involves unauthorized access to a user’s online accounts to enable financial crimes. Criminals can obtain information in a number of ways, including the dark web, spyware and malware, and phishing to allow them to make unauthorized transactions with the user’s account. Fraudsters have made efforts to also gain control of mobile or email accounts so they can intercept one-time passwords or password change instructions to retain control of the account. Once fraudsters have control of one account, they can use it to access other personal information to breach additional accounts and graduate to full-scale identity theft. How does account takeover fraud impact me? Account takeover fraud is damaging to businesses and consumers. It leads to losses and well as resources invested to confirm fraud. The potential losses from account takeover fraud have spiked over the last year, in large part due to the opportunities created by the rapid increase of digital interactions and the influx of users interacting with merchants and financial institutions online for the first time. Aite research shows that 64% of financial institutions are seeing higher rates of ATO fraud attacks now than prior to the pandemic. – Trace Fooshee, Senior Analyst, Aite Group1 Account takeover can also be difficult to detect. Unlike credit card fraud where the true owner might quickly notice suspicious charges, an account takeover attack can go undetected for long periods of time. That’s because the criminal can change login and contact information, ensuring that the real accountholder doesn’t realize they’ve been compromised immediately. Solving the account takeover fraud problem A good account takeover fraud prevention strategy requires two things: frictionless customer experience and robust risk management. It’s clear that customers expect seamless interactions with merchants and lenders. At the same time, businesses need to be able to spot risky or suspicious behavior before a bad transaction occurs. That’s where a layered fraud management solution comes into play. With the right tools—including risk-based identity and device authentication and targeted step-up authentication—businesses can provide a good customer experience and only pull in staff for deeper investigations where necessary. With this strategy in place, businesses can easily recognize good customers and provide a more personalized experience, while at the same time combatting fraud – boosting growth and minimizing losses in the long run. I hope this series has helped provide insights into the different types of fraud and why each of them requires different treatment. To learn more about the risks of account takeover and how a layered fraud management solution can help protect your business and your customers, feel free to contact us. 1Key Trends Driving Fraud Transformation in 2021 and Beyond, Aite Group, December 2020

The ongoing COVID-19 crisis and the associated rise in online transactions have made it more important than ever to keep customer information accurate and company databases up to date. By ensuring your organization’s data quality, you can allocate resources more effectively, minimize costs and safely serve your customers. As part of our recently launched Q&A perspective series, Suzanne Pomposello, Experian’s Strategic Account Director for CEM vertical markets, and William Palmer, Senior Sales Engineer, provided insight on how utility providers can manage and maintain accurate client data during system migrations and modernizations, achieve a single customer view and implement an operational data quality program. Check out what they had to say: Q: What are the best practices for effective data quality management that utility providers should follow? SP: To ensure data quality, we advise starting with a detailed understanding of the data your organization is currently maintaining and how new data entering your systems is being utilized. Conducting a baseline assessment and being able to properly validate the accuracy of your data is key to identifying areas that require cleansing and enrichment. Once you know what improvements and corrections need to be made, you can establish a strategy that will empower your organization to unlock the full potential of your data. Q: How does Experian help clients improve their data hygiene? SP: Experian has over 30 years of expertise in data cleansing, which is tapped to help clients deploy tactics and strategies to ensure an acceptable level of data integrity. First, we obtain a complete picture of each organizations objectives and challenges. We then assess the quality of their data and identify sources that require remediation. Armed with insight, we work alongside organizations to develop a phased action plan to standardize and enhance their data. Our data management solutions satisfy a wide range of needs and can be consumed in real-time, bulk and batch form. Q: Are there any protection regulations to be aware of when obtaining updated data? WP: Unlike Experian’s regulated divisions, most Experian Data Quality data elements are not burdened by complex regulations and restrictions. Our focus is on organizations’ main customer data points (e.g., address, email address and phone). We reference this data against unregulated source systems to validate, append and complete customer profiles. Experian’s data quality management tools can serve as a foundation for many regulatory, compliance and governance requirements, including, Metro 2 reporting, TCPA and CCPA. Q: Are demos of Experian’s data management solutions available? If so, where can they be accessed? WP: Yes, you can visit our website to view product functionality clips and recorded demonstrations. Additionally, we welcome the opportunity to explore our comprehensive data quality management tools via tests and live demonstrations using actual client data to gain a better understanding of how our solutions can be used to improve operational efficiency and the customer experience. For more insight on how to cleanse, standardize, and enhance your data to make sure you get the most out of your information, watch our Experian Symposium Series event on-demand. Watch now Learn more About Our Experts: Suzanne Pomposello, Strategic Account Director, Experian Data Quality, North America Suzanne manages the energy vertical for Experian’s Data Quality division, supporting North America. She brings innovative solutions to her clients by leveraging technology to deliver accurate and validated contact data that is fit for purpose. William Palmer, Senior Sales Engineer, Experian Data Quality, North America William is a Senior Sales Engineer for Experian’s Data Quality division, supporting North America. As an expert in the data quality space, he advises utility clients on strategies for immediate and long-term data hygiene practices, migrations and reporting accuracy.

Inactive credit card accounts are defined as credit cards that were approved, opened and never used by account holders. They also include credit card accounts that were approved, opened, utilized by account holders but don’t have a balance for the last six to 12 months. Inactive credit card accounts pose several challenges and opportunities to lenders. A review of inactivity rates of credit card portfolios of credit unions across the United States as of March 2018 shows that inactive accounts comprise approximately 11 percent of total accounts on the books. The average credit line of inactive accounts is $8,700. (Data were extracted from Experian’s File One™ database using a sample of credit card accounts with credit unions across the United States as of March 2018. Sample size is approximately 600,000 credit card accounts.) Why do credit card accounts become inactive? One potential reason for inactivity is the convenience of securing a credit card during demand deposit account (“DDA”) opening processes. Lenders today may prequalify or preselect a customer quickly and efficiently for a credit card while a customer’s request to open a checking account or deposit account is being processed. Lenders benefit from this choreographed process with no to very minimal additional effort and time requested from the customer. The removal or significant decrease in friction costs — such as requiring additional customer information that previously would have deterred a customer from proceeding with the credit card application — gave lenders the advantage of processing more applications. (Schruder, Kyle. Feb. 26, 2018. The Top 5 Behavioural Economics Principles for Designers — Bridgeable blog. https://uxplanet.org/the-top-5-behavioural-economics-principles-for-designers-ea22a16a4020.)  Because of this convenience, some customers say yes to obtaining a credit card even though they had no intention of securing one in the first place. In behavioral economics, this may be identified as the “yeah, whatever” heuristic. People take the option with the least effort or the path of least resistance. (Thaler, Richard H. and Cass R. Sunstein. 2009. Nudge Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New York: Penguin Books. Pages 35, 85.) With low commitment to the credit card, customers who are approved will receive the new plastic and forget about it. An active credit card user may become inactive because the features, benefits and rewards are no longer relevant for their current financial needs. For example, a merchandise purchase or balance transfer promotion has expired and was paid off. Rewards are less attractive compared to other credit card offers in the marketplace. Lack of lender engagement activities may also lead to inactivity. For example, there are no marketing campaigns with promotions or special rewards offers. Revolving accounts with very low credit lines aren’t given credit line increases even though credit risk is acceptable, and accounts generate good interest income. The challenges to lenders with a large segment of inactive accounts include the direct cost of contingent liability. A percentage of unused credit lines is classified as contingent liability in the balance sheet. If contingent liability is reduced, then funds may be used to invest in more productive activities. In the absence of analytics and deep understanding of various customer behaviors in the portfolio, it can become costly for a lender when inactive accounts are included in all kinds of marketing campaigns. Marketing budgets are limited and ought to be used wisely to target segments with high expected returns and to achieve specific and well-defined objectives. Inactive accounts may also come with credit risk challenges. Some customers designate certain credit cards as emergency credit cards. That is, these cards will be used only in emergency situations where payment is needed immediately, and no other funds can be easily accessed at such time. Some situations are significantly more serious and may be accompanied by deep financial stress. During these times, inactive accounts are utilized and may result in collections or charge-offs. How can lenders handle the challenges of inactive accounts? An inactive account strategy that uses data and analytics is very helpful and prudent. Determine which accounts are never active or were inactive within the last 12 months. Identify which accounts pose elevated credit risk. There are various interventions that can be designed to improve card activation, which may include marketing campaigns and account management strategies including credit line options. If inactive accounts were included in marketing campaigns or account management strategies, then track the performance. These performance reports will provide the rationale and guidelines for further action, which may include account closure. Evaluate the multiple relationships of the customer with the lender and estimated cardmember value. Survey the inactive accounts and obtain feedback regarding the reasons for lack of card usage. Those insights will help identify areas for improvement and drive new initiatives. We have seen that inactive accounts aren’t a trivial component of a credit card portfolio. There are real costs and risks associated with inactive accounts. They also provide opportunities for improving card features and benefits and ways to continue engaging existing cardmembers.

Last year is a testament to how quickly trends can shift, and entire industries can be turned upside down.

Millennials and Gen Z consumers have proven to be future trend shapers for the auto industry.

Experian Automotive Market Insights includes an in-depth analysis of auction volume across the United States.

With 2020 firmly behind us and multiple COVID-19 vaccines being dispersed across the globe, many of us are entering 2021 with a bit of, dare we say it, optimism. But with consumer spending and consumer confidence dipping at the end of the year, along with an inversely proportional spike in coronavirus cases, it’s apparent there’s still some uncertainty to come. This leaves businesses and consumers alike, along with fintechs and their peer financial institutions, wondering when the world’s largest economy will truly rebound.   But based on the most recent numbers available from Experian, fintechs have many reasons to be bullish. In this unprecedented year, marked by a global pandemic and a number of economic and personal challenges for both businesses and consumers, Americans are maintaining healthy credit profiles and responsible spending habits. While growth expectedly slowed towards the end of the year, Q4 of 2020 saw solid job gains in the US labor market, with 883,000 jobs added through November and the US unemployment rate falling to 6.7%. Promisingly, one of the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic, the leisure and hospitality industry added back the most jobs of all sectors in October: 271,000. Additionally, US home sales hit a 14-year high fueled by record low mortgage rates. And finally, consumer sentiment rose to the highest level (81.4%) since March 2020. Not only are these promising signs of continued recovery, they illustrate there are ample market opportunities now for fintechs and other financial institutions.   “It’s been encouraging to see many of our fintech partners getting back to their pre-COVID marketing levels,” said Experian Account Executive for Fintech Neil Conway. “Perhaps more promising, these fintechs are telling me that not only are response rates up but so is the credit quality of those applicants,” he said.  More plainly, if your company isn’t in the market now, you’re missing out. Here are the four steps fintechs should take to reenter the lending marketing intelligently, while mitigating as much risk as possible.   Re-do Your Portfolio Review Periodic portfolio reviews are standard practice for financial institutions. But the health crisis has posted unique challenges that necessitate increased focus on the health and performance of your credit portfolio. If you haven’t done so already, doing an analysis of your current lending portfolio is imperative to ensure you are minimizing risk and maximizing profitability. It’s important to understand if your portfolio is overexposed to customers in a particularly hard-hit industry, i.e. entertainment, or bars and restaurants. At the account level there may be opportunities to reevaluate customers based on a different risk appetite or credit criteria and a portfolio review will help identify which of your customers could benefit from second chance opportunities they may not have otherwise been able to receive. Retool Your Data, Analytics and Models As the pandemic has raged on, fintechs have realized many of the traditional data inputs that informed credit models and underwriting may not be giving the complete picture of a consumer. Essentially, a 720 in June 2020 may not mean the same as it does today and forbearance periods have made payment history and delinquency less predictive of future ability to pay. To stay competitive, fintechs must make sure they have access to the freshest, most predictive data. This means adding alternative data and attributes to your data-driven decisioning strategies as much as possible. Alternative data, like income and employment data, works to enhance your ability to see a consumer’s entire credit portfolio, which gives lenders the confidence to continue to lend – as well as the ability to track and monitor a consumer’s historical performance (which is a good indicator of whether or not a consumer has both the intention and ability to repay a loan). Re-Model Your Lending Criteria  One of the many things the global health crisis has affirmed is the ongoing need for the freshest, most predictable data inputs. But even with the right data, analytics can still be tedious, prolonging deployment when time is of the essence. Traditional models are too slow to develop and deploy, and they underperform during sudden economic upheavals. To stay ahead in times recovery or growth, fintechs need high-quality analytics models, running on large and varied data sets that they can deploy quickly and decisively. Unlike many banks and traditional financial institutions, fintechs are positioned to nimbly take advantage of market opportunities. Once your models are performing well, they should be deployed into the market to actualize on credit-worthy current and future borrowers. Advertising/Prescreening for Intentional Acquisition As fintechs look to re-enter the market or ramp up their prescreen volumes to pre-COVID levels, it’s imperative to reach the right prospects, with the right offer, based on where and how they’re browsing. More consumers than ever are relying on their phones for browsing and mobile banking, but aligning messaging and offers across devices and platforms is still important. Here’s where data-driven advertising becomes imperative to create a more relevant experience for consumers, while protecting privacy.   As 2021 rolls forward, there will be ample chance for fintechs to capitalize on new market opportunities. Through up-to-date analysis of your portfolio, ensuring you have the freshest, predictive data, adjusting your lending criteria and tweaking your approach to advertising and prescreen, you can be ready for the opportunities brought on by the economic recovery. How is your fintech gearing up to re-enter the market? Learn more

Experian Automotive Market Insights helps dealers efficiently identify potential conquest opportunities in their region and beyond.

Experian Automotive Market Insights dashboard provides a variety of insights to help dealers tackle their biggest challenges.

Credit cards are the most widely available credit products offered to millions of consumers today. For many consumers, owning a credit card is a relatively simple step toward establishing credit history and obtaining access to other lending products later in life. For credit unions, offering a credit card to members expands and enriches the credit relationship. In today’s environment, some credit unions don’t view credit cards as an integral part of their member service. I propose that the benefits of credit cards in a credit union portfolio are impactful, meaningful and fully align to member outreach and community service. A high-level review of risk-adjusted yields across three of the most common retail products offered by credit unions show that credit cards can be very profitable. The average APR of credit cards as of Q3 2020 is just slightly below personal loans. While charge-offs as a percentage of balances are more than double of personal loans, the estimated risk-adjusted yield is still elevated and is 1.8 times higher than auto loan and leases. See Table 1. Table 1. Estimated average risk-adjusted yield for auto loan and lease, personal loan, and credit card for credit unions Auto loan and lease Personal loan Credit card Average APR 5.21% 12.05% 11.26% Charge-offs as % of balances (annualized) 0.28% 0.89% 1.98% Risk-adjusted yield 4.93% 11.16% 9.28% Notes: Average APR of auto loans and leases, personal loans, and charge-off information as of Q3 2020 was extracted from Experian-Oliver Wyman IntelliViewSM Market Intelligence Reports. IntelliView Market Intelligence Reports, Dec. 22, 2020, experian.com/decision-analytics/market-intelligence/intelliview. Average APR of credit card as of Q3 2020 was extracted from National Credit Union Administration website. Credit Union and Bank Rates 2020 Q3, Dec. 22, 2020, https://www.ncua.gov/analysis/cuso-economic-data/credit-union-bank-rates/credit-union-and-bank-rates-2020-q3. Estimated risk-adjusted yield is calculated as the difference between average APR and charge-offs. A profitable retail product allows a credit union to share those profits back with members consistent with its mission of promoting and supporting the financial health and well-being of its members. Credit cards provide diversification of income streams. Income diversification provides a level of stability across cyclical economic conditions when some types of credit exposures may perform poorly, while others may be more stable. When combined with sound and effective risk governance, credit diversification allows lenders to mitigate levels of concentration risks in their aggregate portfolio. Offering credit cards to members is one avenue to grow loan volume and achieve scale that’s sufficiently manageable for credit unions. Scale is particularly important today as it’s needed to fund technology investments. The pandemic accelerated the massive movement toward digital engagement, and scale makes technology investments more cost-effective.  When lenders become more productive and efficient, they further lower the cost of credit products to members. (Stovall, Nathan. Dec. 14, 2020. Desire to compete with megabanks driving more U.S. regional bank M&A — KBW CE blog. https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#news/.) The barriers to offering credit cards have moderately declined. Technology partners, payment processors and specialized industry companies are available in the marketplace. The biggest challenge for credit unions and lenders is credit risk management. To be profitable and to stay relevant, credit cards require a relatively sophisticated risk management framework of underwriting criteria, pricing, credit line management, operations and marketing. Industry and specialized support for launching and managing credit cards is widely available and accessible. Analytics play an essential role in managing credit cards. With an average active life of approximately five years, credit card portfolios need regular and periodic performance reviews to manage inherent risk and to identify opportunities for growth and profitability. Account management for credit cards is equally as important as underwriting. Credit line management, authorization, activation and retention have significant impact to the performance of existing accounts. Continuous engagement with members is critical and has taken on a new meaning lately. Credit cards provide an opportunity to engage members, to grow lending relationships and to support financial well-being. Marketing and meaningful card offers drive card usage and relevance. They’re critical components in customer communication and service. The benefits of credit cards contribute positively to a credit union portfolio. With sound and effective risk management practices, credit cards are profitable, help diversify income streams, grow loan volume and support member credit needs.

Recently, I shared articles about the problems surrounding third-party and first-party fraud. Now I’d like to explore a hybrid type – synthetic identity fraud – and how it can be the hardest type of fraud to detect. What is synthetic identity fraud? Synthetic identity fraud occurs when a criminal creates a new identity by mixing real and fictitious information. This may include blending real names, addresses, and Social Security numbers with fabricated information to create a single identity.   Once created, fraudsters will use their synthetic identities to apply for credit. They employ a well-researched process to accumulate access to credit. These criminals often know which lenders have more liberal identity verification policies that will forgive data discrepancies and extend credit to people who appear to be new or emerging consumers. With each account that they add, the synthetic identity builds more credibility.   Eventually, the synthetic identity will “bust out,” or max out all available credit before disappearing. Because there is no single person whose identity was stolen or misused there’s no one to track down when this happens, leaving businesses to deal with the fall out.   More confounding for the lenders involved is that each of them sees the same scam through a different lens. For some, these were longer-term reliable customers who went bad. For others, the same borrower was brand new and never made a payment. Synthetic identities don't appear consistently as a new account problem or a portfolio problem or correlate to thick- or thin-filed identities, further complicating the issue.   How does synthetic identity fraud impact me?   As mentioned, when synthetic identities bust out, businesses are stuck footing the bill.   Annual SIF (synthetic identity fraud) charge-offs in the United States alone could be as high as $11 billion. – Steven D’Alfonso, research director, IDC Financial Insights1   Unlike first- and third-party fraud, which deal with true identities and can be tracked back to a single person (or the criminal impersonating them), synthetic identities aren’t linked to an individual. This means that the tools used to identify those types of fraud won’t work on synthetics because there’s no victim to contact (as with third-party fraud), or real customer to contact in order to collect or pursue other remedies.   Solving the synthetic identity fraud problem   Preventing and detecting synthetic identities requires a multi-level solution that includes robust checkpoints throughout the customer lifecycle.   During the application process, lenders must look beyond the credit report. By looking past the individual identity and analyzing its connections and relationships to other individuals and characteristics, lenders can better detect anomalies to pinpoint false identities.   Consistent portfolio review is also necessary. This is best done using a risk management system that continuously monitors for all types of fraudulent activities across multiple use cases and channels. A layered approach can help prevent and detect fraud while still optimizing the customer experience.   With the right tools, data, and analytics, fraud prevention can teach you more about your customers, improving your relationships with them and creating opportunities for growth while minimizing fraud losses.   To wrap up this series, I’ll explore account takeover fraud and how the correct strategy can help you manage all four types of fraud while still optimizing the customer experience. To learn more about the impact of synthetic identities, download our “Preventing Synthetic Identity Fraud” white paper and call us to learn more about innovative solutions you can use to detect and prevent fraud.   Contact us Download whitepaper   1Synthetic Identity Fraud Update: Effects of COVID-19 and a Potential Cure from Experian, IDC Financial Insights, July 2020

Despite the constant narrative around “unprecedented times” and the “new normal,” if the current market volatility tells us anything, it’s to go back to basics. As financial institutions navigate COVID-19’s economic impact, and challenges that are likely to be different or more extreme than in the past, the best credit portfolio management practices are fundamental. The global pandemic impacts today’s data as existing data and analytics may not accurately reflect what is happening now, resulting in inaccurate portfolio assessment. In order to successfully navigate loss forecasting, predicting borrower behavior and controlling loss ratios, lenders must engage new data, analytics and economic scenarios suited for today’s changing times. In Experian’s latest white paper, “Credit Portfolio Management After the COVID-19 Recession,” we’ll explore best practices to combat the following challenges: Forecasting credit losses despite increased economic volatility Businesses have long used a variety of data, analytics and models to anticipate and project the future direction of their organization based on a number of data points; however, with the onset of the global pandemic, long-standing scenarios became suddenly irrelevant.   Predicting borrower behavior given increased financial disparities The post-pandemic and pre-pandemic worlds are very different places for some borrowers. Pandemic-related job losses and other economic effects will not be spread evenly and this variability may be reflected in lenders’ portfolios.   Controlling loss ratios In the post-COVID world, it will be mission critical for lenders to use high-quality and up-to-date data to balance priorities and identify which areas of their portfolio need attention now.   Whether your portfolio is doing better than expected, as expected, or worse than expected, now is the time to refresh portfolio management strategy. Lenders should be watching for early indicators in loan portfolios to better navigate a fluctuating economy and that requires new resources and better tools. Take control of your business’ trajectory. Download now