Industries

Today is a great day for Experian and our automotive clients. We’ve been working with String Automotive for several years, and have now taken the next step in our relationship, as String Automotive has become part of the Experian family. In today’s generally flat new-car market, successful dealers need the perfect mix of data and market intelligence to drive more sales, cultivate deeper customer relationships and develop new ways of better conquesting customers from their competition. String Automotive’s Dealer Positioning System, matched with our own information and data-driven insights, provides our automotive dealer clients with an ideal solution to grow their businesses. It is the only platform to combine dealership website analytics and inventory information with automotive market, consumer demographic and purchasing behavior data. Simply put, it takes the pulse of each dealership’s local market and guides dealers to make the most profitable, proactive decisions for every store and unique situation. This powerful analytics solution simplifies choices like how to spend marketing dollars and where to target conquesting efforts by letting market and dealership data drive decisions. What’s the bottom line? The Dealer Positioning System increases profitability across the dealership. It’s one thing to hear that message from us, but we also hear of the benefits from our clients. Paul Schnell, digital marketing director at Wilsonville Toyota in Oregon, had this to say: "There is no 'I wonder if...' with the Dealer Positioning System®. Now it is, 'I know it and I can act on it today’. Their latest tools give us zip-code-level intelligence that's just not available at the dealer level any other way. We are micro-targeting the perfect message with the perfect vehicle to the perfect prospect." For more information on Experian or our other automotive products and services, please visit www.experian.com/automotive. For more information about String Automotive and the Dealer Positioning System, please visit http://stringautomotive.com/Dealer_Positioning_System.

Weekend getaways, beach vacations and summer camp are all part of the beauty of summer. But they can come with a hefty price tag, and many consumers delay payment by placing summer fun costs on a credit card. In a recent study by Experian and Edelman Berland, travelers rely heavily on credit for vacation purchases and unexpected costs, and many charge more than half of their vacation this summer. A whopping 86 percent spent money on a summer vacation in 2016—an average of $2,275 per person with $1,308 of that amount on credit card spending. And 35 percent of those surveyed had not saved in advance. Even consumers who budgeted for vacation typically accrue unexpected costs. Sixty-one percent of those who set a budget ended up spending more than they planned. Accumulated debt doesn’t bode well for consumers. In the first quarter of 2016, consumers had an average of $3,910 in credit card debt, according to Experian data. That's $44 less than in the fourth quarter of 2015, but up $142 year over year. Overspending on vacation puts consumers in a more hazardous position to rack up debt during the holiday season and carry even higher balances into 2017 and beyond. Many consumers who are overspending consolidate summer debt, and proactive lenders can take advantage of that activity by making timely offers to consumers in need. At the same time, reactive lenders may feel the pain as balances transfer out of their portfolio. By identifying consumers who are likely to engage in card-to-card balance transfers, lenders can prepare for these consumer bankcard trends. Insights can then be used to acquire new customers and balances through prescreen campaigns, while protecting existing balances before they can transfer out of an existing loan portfolio. Lenders can also use tools to estimate a consumer’s spend on all general purpose credit and charge cards over the past year, and then target high-spending consumers with customized offers. With Memorial Day and the end-of-the-school-year fast approaching, card balances are likely already on the rise. Now is the time for lenders to prepare.  

There are about as many definitions for people-based marketing as there are companies using the term. Each company seems to skew the definition to fit their particular service offering. The distinctions are vast, and especially for financial services companies running regulated campaigns, they can be incredibly important. At Experian, we define people-based marketing in its purest form: targeting at the individual level across channels. This is a practice we’re very familiar with in offline marketing, having honed arguably one of the most accurate views of U.S. consumers over the past three decades. And now we’re taking those tried and true principals and applying them to digital channels. It’s not as easy as it sounds. The challenge with people-based marketing  With direct mail, people-based marketing was easy. Jane Doe lives at 123 Main St. If I want to reach her, I can simply send her a direct mail piece at that address. To help, I can utilize any number of services, including the National Change of Address database, to know where to reach her if she ever moves. People-based marketing through digital channels is exponentially more difficult. While direct mail has one signal with which you use to identify a consumer (the address), digital channels offer countless signals. And not all of those signals can be used, either individually or in conjunction with other signals, to reliably tie a consumer to a persistent offline ID. A prime example of this is cookies. The problem with cookies A cookie, in and of itself, isn’t the problem. The problem is the linkage. How was a cookie associated with the person to whom the ad is being served? As marketers, we need to make sure that we are reaching the right people with the right ad … and more importantly not reaching those people who have opted out. This is especially true in the world of regulated data, where you need to know who you are targeting. And cookie-based linkage is controlled by a handful of companies, many of which are walled gardens who don’t share how they link offline people to online cookies and don’t collect this information directly. They rely on other third-party websites to gather PII, and connect it to their cookies. In some cases, the data is very accurate (especially with transaction data). In some cases, it is not (think websites that collect PII when giving surveys, offering coupons, etc.). In short, in order for you to use cookie-based targeting accurately, you need to have insight into the source of the base linkage data that was used to connect the offline consumer record to the online cookie. This same concept applies to all forms of digital linkage that drive people-based marketing. Why does people-based marketing matter in digital credit marketing?  With campaigns that utilize non-regulated data, such as “Invitation to Apply” campaigns that are driven from demographic and psychographic data, the consequences of not reaching the consumer you meant to target are negligible. But with campaigns that utilize regulated data, you must ensure you’re targeting the exact consumer you meant to reach. More importantly, you must make sure you’re not targeting an ad to a consumer who had previously opted out of receiving offers driven with regulated data (prescreen offers, for example). Even if you’ve already delivered a direct mail piece with the same offer, this doesn’t negate your responsibility to reach only approved consumers who have not opted out. --- Bottom line, the world of 1:1 marketing is growing more sophisticated, and that’s a good thing. Marketers just need to understand that while regulated data can be powerful, they must also take great responsibility when handling it. The data exists to deliver firm offers of credit to your very specific target in all-new mediums. People-based marketing has its place, and it can now be done in a compliant, digitally-savvy way – in the financial services space, nonetheless.   Register for our webinar on Credit Marketing Strategies to Drive Today's Digital Consumer.

For an industry that has grown accustomed to sustained year-over-year growth, recent trends are concerning. The automotive industry continued to make progress in the fourth quarter of 2016 as total automotive loan balances grew 8.6% over the previous year and exceeded $1 trillion. However, the positive trend is slowing and 2017 may be the first year since 2009 to see a market contraction. With interest rates on the rise and demand peaking, automotive lending will continue to become more competitive. Lenders can be successful in this environment, but must implement data-driven targeting strategies. Credit Unions Triumph Credit unions experienced the largest year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, increasing 15% over the previous period. As lending faces increasing headwinds amid rising rates, credit unions can continue to play a greater role by offering members more competitive rates. For many consumers, a casual weekend trip to the auto mall turns into a big new purchase. Unfortunately, many get caught up in researching the vehicle and don’t think to shop for financing options until they’re in the F&I office. With approximately 25% share of total auto loan balances, credit unions have significant potential to recapture loans of existing members. Successful targeting starts with a review of your portfolio for opportunities with current members who have off-book loans that could be refinanced at a lower rate. After developing a strategy, many credit unions find success targeting these members with refinance offers. Helping members reduce monthly payments and interest expense provides an unexpected service that can deepen loyalty and engagement. But what criteria should you use to identify prospects? Target Receptive Consumers As originations continue to slow, marketing response rates will as well, leading to reduced marketing ROI. Maintaining performance is possible, but requires a proactive approach. Propensity models can help identify consumers who are more likely to respond, while estimated interest rates can provide insight on who is likely to benefit from refinance offers. Propensity models identify who is most likely to open a new trade. By focusing on these populations, you can cut a mail list in half or more while still focusing on the most viable prospects. It may be okay in a booming economy to send as many offers as possible, but as things slow down, getting more targeted can maintain campaign performance while saving resources for other projects. When it comes to recapture, consumers refinance to reduce their payment, interest rate, or both. Payments can often be reduced simply by ‘resetting’ the clock on a loan, or taking the remaining balance and resetting the term. Many consumers, however, will be aware of their current interest rate and only consider offers that reduce the rate as well. Estimated interest rates can provide valuable insight into a consumer’s current terms. By targeting those with high rates, you are more likely to make an offer that will be accepted. Successful targeting means getting the right message to the right consumers. Propensity models help identify “who” to target while estimated interest rates determine “what” to offer. Combining these two strategies will maximize results in even the most challenging markets. Lend Deeper with Trended Data Much of the growth in the auto market has been driven by relatively low-risk consumers, with more than 60% of outstanding balances rated prime and above. This means hypercompetition and great rates for the best consumers, while those in lower risk tiers are underserved. Many lenders are reluctant to compete for these consumers and avoid taking on additional risk for the portfolio. But trended data holds the key to finding consumers who are currently in a lower risk tier but carry significantly less risk than their current score suggests. In fact, historical data can provide much deeper insight on a consumer’s past use of credit. As an example, consider two consumers with the same risk score at a point in time. While they may be judged as carrying similar risk, trended data shows one has taken out two new trades in the past 6 months and has increasing utilization, while the other is consolidating and paying down balances. They may have the same risk score today, but what will the impact be on your future profitability? Most risk scores take a snapshot approach to gauging risk. While effective in general, it misses out on the nuance of consumers who are trending up or down based on recent behavior. Trended data attributes tell a deeper story and allow lenders to find underserved consumers who carry less risk than their current score suggests. Making timely offers to underserved consumers is a great way to grow your portfolio while managing risk. Uncertain Future The automotive industry has been a bright spot for the US economy for several years. It’s difficult to say what will happen in 2017, but there will likely be a continued slowing in originations. When markets get more competitive, data-driven targeting becomes even more important. Propensity models, estimated interest rates, and trended data should be part of every prescreen campaign. Those that integrate them now will likely shrug off any downturn and continue growing their portfolio by providing valuable and timely offers to their members.

The final day of Vision 2017 brought a seasoned group of speakers to discuss a wide range of topics. In just a few short hours, attendees dove into a first look at Gen Z and their use of credit, ecommerce fraud, the latest in retail, the state of small business and leadership. Move over Millennials – Gen Z is coming of credit age Experian Analytics leaders Kelley Motley and Natasha Madan gave audience members an exclusive look at how the first wave of Gen Z is handling and managing credit. Granted most of this generation is still under the age of 18, so the analysis focused on those between the ages of 18 to 20. Yes, Millennials are still the dominant generation in the credit world today, standing strong at 61 million individuals. But it’s important to note Gen Z is sized at 86 million, so as they age, they’ll be the largest generation yet. A few stats to note about those Gen Z individuals managing credit today: Their average debt is $12,679, compared to younger Millennials (21 to 27) who have $65,473 in debt and older Millennials (28 to 34) who sport $121,460. Given their young age, most of Gen Z is considered thin-file (less than 5 tradelines) Average Gen Z income is $33,000, and average debt-to-income is low at 5.7%. New bankcard balances are averaging around $1,574. As they age, acquire mortgages and vehicles, their debt and tradelines will grow. In the meantime, the speakers provided audience members a few tips. Message with authenticity. Think long-term with this group. Maintain their technological expectations. Build trust and provide financial education. State of business credit and more on the economy Moody’s Cris deRitis reiterated the U.S. economy is looking good. He quoted unemployment at 4.5%, stating “full employment is here.” Since the recession, he said we’ve added 15 million jobs, noting we lost 8 million during the recession. The great news is that the U.S. continues to add about 200,000 jobs a month, and that job growth is broad-based. Small business loans are up 10% year-to-date vs. last year. While there has been a tremendous amount of buzz around small business, he adds that most job creation has come from mid0size business (50 to 499 employees). The case for layered fraud systems Experian speaker John Sarreal shared a case study that revealed by layering on fraud products and orchestrating collaboration, a business can go from a string 75% fraud detection rate to almost 90%. Additionally, he commented that Experian is working to leverage dark web data to mine for breached identity data. More connections for financial services companies to make with mobile and social Facebook speaker Olivia Basu reinforced the need for all companies to be thinking about mobile. “Mobile is not about to happen,” she said. “Mobile is now. Mobile is everything. You look at the first half of 2017 and we’re seeing 40% of all purchases are happening on mobile devices.” Her challenge to financial services companies is to make marketing personal again, and of course leverage the right channels. Experian Sr. Director of Credit Marketing Scott Gordon commented on Experian’s ability to reach consumers accurately – whether that be through direct or digital delivery channels. A great deal of focus has been around person-based marketing vs. leveraging the cookie. -- The Vision conference was capped off with a keynote speech from legendary quarterback and Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady. He chatted about the details of this past season, and specifically the comeback Super Bowl win in February 2017. He additionally talked about leadership and what that means to creating a winning team and organization. -- Multiple keynote speeches, 65 breakout sessions, and hours of networking designed to help all attendees ready themselves for growing profits and customers, step up to digital, regulatory and fraud challenges, and capture the latest data insights. Learn more about Experian’s annual Vision conference.  

Risk analysts are insatiable consumers of big data who require better intelligence to develop market insights, evaluate risk and confirm business strategies. While every credit decision, risk assessment model or marketing forecast improves when it is based on better, faster and more current data, leveraging large data sets can be challenging and unproductive. That’s why Experian added a new functionality to its Analytical Sandbox, giving clients the flexibility they need to analyze big data efficiently. Experian’s Analytical Sandbox now utilizes H2O –an open source machine learning and deep learning platform that can model and predict with high accuracy billions of rows of high-dimensional data from multiple sources in various formats. Through machine learning and advanced predictive modeling, the platform enables Experian to better provide on-demand data insights that empowers analysts with high-quality intelligence to inform regional trends, provide consumer transactional insight or expose marketing opportunities. As a hosted service, Sandbox is offered as a plug-and-play, meaning no internal development is required. Clients can instantly access the data through a secure Web interface on their desktop, giving users access to powerful artificial and business intelligence tools from their own familiar applications. No special training is required. “AI monetizes data,” said SriSatish Ambati, CEO of H2O.ai. “Our partnership with Experian democratizes and delivers AI to the wider community of financial and risk analysts. Experian's analytics sandbox can now model and predict with high accuracy billions of rows of high-dimensional data in mere seconds.” Through H2O and the Experian Sandbox, machine learning and predictive analytics are giving risk managers from financial institutions of all sizes the ability to incorporate machine learning models into their own big data processing systems.

In just a few short hours, Vision attendees immersed themselves into the depths of the economy, risk models, specialty finance data, credit invisibles, student loan data, online marketplace lending and more. The morning kicked off with one of the most respected and trusted macroeconomists in the U.S., Diane Swonk. With a rap sheet filled with advising central banks and multinational companies, Swonk treated a packed house to a look back on what has transpired in the U.S. economy since the Great Recession, as well as launching into current state and speculating on the months ahead. She described the past decade not as “lost, but rather lagging.” She went onto to say this past year was transitional, and while markets slowed slightly during the months leading up the U.S. presidential election, good things are happening: We’ve finally broken out of the 2% wage rut Recruiting on college campuses has picked up The labor force is growing Debt-to-income levels have returned to where they were prerecession and Investment is coming back. “I believe we’ll see growth over 2% this year,” said Swonk. Still, change is underway. She commented on how the way U.S. consumer spending is changing, and of course we’re seeing a restructuring in the retail space. While JC Penney announces store closings, you simultaneously see Amazon moving from “click to brick,” dabbling in the opening of some actual storefronts. Globally, she said the economy is the strongest it has been in eight years. She closed by noting there is a great deal of political change and unrest in the world today, but says, “Never underestimate our abilities when we tap our human capital.” -- More than 100 attendees filled a room to hear about the current trends and the future of online lending with featured guests from Oliver Wyman, Marlette Funding and Lending USA. While speakers commented on the “hiccup” in the space last year with some layoffs and mergers, volume has continued to double every year for the past several years with roughly $40 billion in cumulative originations today. Panelists discussed the use of alternative data to decision, channel bias, the importance of partnerships and how the market will see fewer and fewer players offering just one product specialty. “It is expensive to acquire customers, so you don’t just want to have one product to sell, but rather a range,” said Sharat Shankar of Lending USA. -- The numbers in the student lending universe are astounding. In a session focused on the U.S. student loan market, new Experian data reveals there is $1.49 billion in total student loan outstandings. In fact, total outstandings have grown 21% over the past four years, while the number of trades have only grown 4%. Costs are skyrocketing. The average balance per trade has grown 17% over the past four years. “We don’t ration education in this country,” said Joe DePaulo of College Ave. Student Loans. “We give everyone access to liquidity when it comes to federal student loans – and it’s not like that in other countries.” While DePaulo notes the access is great, offering many students the opportunity to obtain higher education, he says the problem is with disclosures. Guardians are often the individuals filling out the FAFSA, but the students inherit the loans. Students, he says, rarely understand how much their monthly payment will ultimately be after graduation. For every $10,000 in student loans, he says that will generally equate to a $100 monthly payment. -- Tomorrow, Vision attendees will be treated to more breakout sessions and a concluding keynote with legendary quarterback Tom Brady.

So many insights and learnings to report after the first full day of 2017 Vision sessions. From the musings shared by tech engineer and pioneer Steve Wozniak, to a panel of technology thought leaders, to countless breakout sessions on a wide array of business topics … here’s a look at our top 10 from the day. A mortgage process for the digital age. At last. In his opening remarks, Experian President of Credit Services Alex Lintner asked the audience to imagine a world when applying for a mortgage simply required a few clicks or swipes. Instead of being sent home to collect a hundred pieces of paper to verify employment, income and assets, a consumer could click on a link and provide a few credentials to verify everything digitally. Finally, lenders can make this a reality, and soon it will be the only way consumers expect to go through the mortgage process. The global and U.S. economies are stable. In fact, they are strong. As Experian Vice President of Analytics Michele Raneri notes, “the fundamentals and technicals look really solid across the countries.” While many were worried a year ago that Brexit would turn the economy upside down, it appears everything is good. Consumer confidence is high. The Dow Jones Index is high. The U.S. unemployment rate is at 4.7%. Home prices are up year-over-year. While there has been a great deal of change in the world – politically and beyond – the economy is holding strong. The rise of the micropreneur. This term is not officially in the dictionary … but it will be. What is it? A micropreneur is a business with 0 to 4 employees bringing in no more than $200k in annual revenue. But the real story is that numbers show microbusiness are improving on many fronts when it comes to contribution to the economy and overall performance compared to other small businesses. Keep an eye on these budding business people. Fraud is running fierce. Synthetic identity losses are estimated in the hundreds of millions annually, with 50% year-over year growth. Criminals are now trying to use credit cleaners to get tradelines removed from used Synthetic IDs. Oh, and it is essential for businesses to ready themselves for “Dark Web” threats. Experts advise to harden your defenses (and play offense) to keep pace with the criminal underground. As soon as you think you’ve protected everything, the criminals will find a gap. The cloud is cool and so are APIs. A panel of thought leaders took to the main stage to discuss the latest trends in tech. Experian Global CIO Barry Libenson said, “The cloud has changed the way we deliver services to our customers and clients, making it seamless and elastic.” Combine that with API, and the goal is to ultimately make all Experian data available to its customers. Experian President of Decision Analytics Steve Platt added, “We are enabling you to tap into what you need, when you need it.” No need to “rip and replace” all your tech. Expect more regulation – and less. A panel of regulatory experts addressed the fast-changing regulatory environment. With the new Trump administration settling in, and calls for change to Dodd-Frank and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), it’s too soon to tell what will unfold in 2017. CFPB Director Richard Cordray may be making a run for governor of Ohio, so he could be transitioning out sooner than the scheduled close of his July 2018 term. The auto market continues to cruise. Experian’s auto expert, Malinda Zabritski, revealed the latest and greatest stats pertaining to the auto market. A few numbers to blow your mind … U.S. passenger cars and light trucks surpassed 17 million units for the second consecutive year Most new vehicle buyers in the U.S. are 45 years of age or older Crossover and sport utility vehicles remain popular, accounting for 40% of the market in 2016 – this is also driving up finance payments since these vehicles are more expensive. There are signs the auto market is beginning to soften, but interest rates are still low, and leasing is hot. Defining alternative data. As more in the industry discuss the need for alternative data to decision, it often gets labeled as something radical. But in reality, alternative data should be simple. Experian Sr. Director of Government Affairs Liz Oesterle defined it as “getting more financial data in the system that is predicted, validated and can be disputed.” #DeathtoPasswords – could it be a reality? It’s no secret we live in a digital world where we are increasingly relying on apps and websites to manage our lives, but let’s throw out some numbers to quantify the shift. In 2013, the average U.S. consumer had 26 online accounts. By 2015, that number increased to 118 online accounts. By 2020, the average person will have 207 online accounts. When you think about this number, and the passwords associated with these accounts, it is clear a change needs to be made to managing our lives online. Experian Vice President David Britton addressed his session, introducing the concept of creating an “ultimate consumer identity profile,” where multi-source data will be brought together to identify someone. It’s coming, and all of us managing dozens of passwords can’t wait. “The Woz.” I guess you needed to be there, but let’s just say he was honest, opinionated and notes that while he loves tech, he loves it even more when it enables us to live in the “human world.” Too much wonderful content to share, but more to come tomorrow …

In a May 4 speech before the ACA International Conference in Washington, FCC Commissioner Michael O’Rielly criticized the FCC’s past decisions on Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) and outlined his vision on the direction that the new Commission should head to provide more certainty to businesses. Commissioner O’Rielly noted that prior decisions by the FCC and courts have “expanded the boundaries of TCPA far beyond what I believe Congress intended.” He said that the new leadership at the Commission and a new Bureau head overseeing TCPA, provides the FCC with the opportunity to “undo the misguided and harmful TCPA decisions of the past that exposed legitimate companies to massive legal liability without actually protecting consumers.” O’Rielly laid out three principles that he thought would help to frame discussions and guide the development of replacement rules. First, he said that legitimate businesses need to be able to contact consumers to communicate information that they want, need or expect to receive. This includes relief for informational calls, as well as valid telemarketing calls or texts. Second, Commissioner O’Rielly said that FCC should change the definition of an autodialer so that valid callers can operate in an efficient manner. He went on to say that if FCC develops new rules to clarify revocation of consent, it should do so in a clear and convenient way for consumers, but also does not upend standard best practices of legitimate companies. Third, O’Rielly said that the FCC should focus on actual harms and bad actors, not legitimate companies. While Commissioner O’Rielly’ s comments signal his approach to TCPA reform, it is important to note that FCC action on the issue us unlikely to happen overnight. A rule must be considered by the Commission, which will have to allow for public notice and comment. Experian will continue to monitor regulatory and legislative developments on TCPA.

As we enter May, a month dedicated to recognizing our U.S. Armed Forces, it’s only fitting to think about how we are honoring this special group of people. Yes, there will likely be car deals, coupons, and even a few beautiful ceremonies, but as both lawmakers and leaders have recognized, these individuals and their families deserve protections every day. Especially in the financial services universe. There should be no exorbitant fees. No excessively high interest rates. And when they are called to active-duty, they should have avenues to ease their financial commitments and/or exit out of lease agreements. Thankfully, the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act (SCRA) and a strengthened Military Lending Act (MLA) were introduced to help. In fact, we are in year one of the enhanced MLA Final Rule in which compliance was mandated by Oct. 3, 2016. The extended MLA protections include a 36% Military Annual Percentage Rate (MAPR) cap to a wider range of credit products, including payday loans, vehicle title loans, refund application loans, deposit advance loans, installment loans and unsecured open-end lines of credit. The cap additionally applies to fees tacked on for credit-related ancillary products including finance charges and certain application and participation fees. The amended rule covers credit offered or extended to active-duty service members and their dependents, if the credit is subject to a finance charge or is payable by written agreement in more than four installments. And finally, one of the most important additions is that creditors must verify active-duty and dependents at origination. Right now, this can be accomplished by either working with a bureau, like Experian, or by vetting lists directly with the Department of Defense’s (DOD) own database. To continue to help with client need, the bureaus are working with the DOD and financial institutions to ensure alignment in delivery of military member and dependent data for a consistent, immediate and accurate MLA verification process. While much has been introduced over the past year to strengthen protections, there is still more to come. The compliance date for credit cards is Oct. 3, 2017. To date, the MLA status of millions upon millions of consumer credit applications have been verified, ensuring our military members and their dependents receive the financial protections they are entitled to under law. There are roughly 3.4 million military members and dependents in the MLA database, and this is an audience who sacrifices a great deal for our country. Thankfully, protections are finally being enforced to ensure they are taken care of too.

Experian and Creative Strategies share survey results about Apple’s AirPods, Google Home, Amazon Echo and Echo Dot for consumer behavior with voice devices.

Sometimes life throws you a curve ball. The unexpected medical bill. The catastrophic car repair. The busted home appliance. It happens, and the killer is that consumers don’t always have the savings or resources to cover an additional cost. They must make a choice. Which bills do they pay? Which bills go to the pile? Suddenly, a consumer’s steady payment behavior changes, and in some cases they lose control of their ability to fulfill their obligations altogether. These shifts in payment patterns aren’t always reflected in consumer credit scores. At a single point in time, consumers may look identical. However, when analyzing their past payment behaviors, differences emerge. With these insights, lenders can now determine the appropriate risk or marketing decisions. In the example below, we see that based on the trade-level data, Consumer A and Consumer B have the same credit score and balance. But once we see their payment pattern within their trended data, we can clearly see Consumer A is paying well over the minimum payments due and has a demonstrated ability to pay. A closer look at Consumer B, on the other hand, reveals that the payment amount as compared to the minimum payment amount is decreasing over time. In fact, over the last three months only the minimum payment has been made. So while Consumer B may be well within the portfolio risk tolerance, they are trending down. This could indicate payment stress. With this knowledge,  the lender could decide to hold off on offering Consumer B any new products until an improvement is seen in their payment pattern. Alternatively, Consumer A may be ripe for a new product offering. In another example, three consumers may appear identical when looking at their credit score and average monthly balance. But when you look at the trend of their historical bankcard balances as compared to their payments, you start to see very different behaviors. Consumer A is carrying their balances and only making the minimum payments. Consumer B is a hybrid of revolving and transacting, and Consumer C is paying off their balances each month. When we look at the total annual payments and their average percent of balance paid, we can see the biggest differences emerge. Having this deeper level of insight can assist lenders with determining which consumer is the best prospect for particular offerings. Consumer A would likely be most interested in a low- interest rate card, whereas Consumer C may be more interested in a rewards card. The combination of the credit score and trended data provides significant insight into predicting consumer credit behavior, ultimately leading to more profitable lending decisions across the customer lifecycle: Response – match the right offer with the right prospect to maximize response rates and improve campaign performance Risk – understand direction and velocity of payment performance to adequately manage risk exposure Retention – anticipate consumer preferences to build long-term loyalty All financial institutions can benefit from the value of trended data, whether you are a financial institution with significant analytical capabilities looking to develop custom models from the trended data or looking for proven pre-built solutions for immediate implementation.

With steady sales growth the past several years, the auto industry has had a great run since the trough of the Great Recession in 2009. Based on the latest data published in the State of the Automotive Finance Market report, the auto industry’s robust sales totaled more than 17 million vehicles in 2016, pushing the total open auto loan balances to a record high of $1.072 trillion, up from $987 billion in Q4 2015. Despite the current boom, new vehicle affordability is becoming more challenging. The average monthly payment for a new vehicle loan jumped from $493 in Q4 2015 to $506 in Q4 2016, while the average new vehicle loan reached an all-time high in Q4 2016, at $30,621. In addition, the chasm between new vehicle loan and used vehicle loan average amounts is wider than ever at $11,292. This trend appears to be pushing more credit-worthy customers into the used vehicle market. In Q4 2016, the percentage of used vehicle loans going to prime and super prime customers was up from 45.49 percent in Q4 2015 to 47.76 percent in Q4 2016. In addition, the average credit score for used vehicle loans is up from 649 in Q4 2015 to 654 in Q4 2016. Consumers also appear to be combating the vehicle affordability issue by shifting into leases or longer-term loans to keep their monthly payments low. Leasing was up from 28.87 percent of all new vehicle financing in Q4 2015 to 28.94 percent in Q4 2016. Loan terms of 73 to 84 months now account for 32.1 percent of all new vehicle loans, up from 29 percent in Q4 2015. Keeping payments manageable will help keep people out of delinquencies, which is good for consumers and their lenders. Data shows that 30-day delinquencies were relatively flat, moving from 2.42 percent in Q4 2015 to 2.44 percent in Q4 2016, while 60-day delinquencies are growing, moving from 0.71 percent to 0.78 percent. It seems that as long as new vehicle costs rise, it is likely that more people will move toward leasing, longer term loans and used vehicles. While none of these trends are inherently bad, they could re-shape dealer strategy moving forward. Many analysts predict flat new vehicle sales in 2017, making used vehicle, F&I and service business more important to overall dealership growth this year.

The auto industry has had an impressive recovery from the Great Recession and has enjoyed steady growth for the past seven years. After bottoming out in 2009 at 10.5 million new vehicle registrations, the industry has grown each year since, culminating in 17.3 million new vehicle registrations in 2016. However, the rate of growth has been slowing over the past several years, increasing just 1.03 percent from 2015 to 2016. While retail registrations were nearly flat, the growth came from fleet, with a 13.69 percent spike in registrations by government entities and a 5.59 percent increase in commercial/taxi registrations. When automotive sales growth begins to taper, hanging onto existing customers becomes more important than ever. Fortunately, customer loyalty in the auto industry is rising for manufacturers, dealers and lenders. The manufacturer loyalty rate through November 2016 was 62.8 percent, up from 59 percent in 2010. At the make level, the loyalty rate went from 50.6 percent in 2010 to 54.5 percent through November 2016.  Loyalty to a specific dealer is significantly lower but still on the rise, moving from 19.5 percent in 2010 to 23 percent through November 2016. Interestingly, 61.3 percent of all new vehicle registrations in 2016 were to customers 45 years old and older. Manufacturers and dealers who can keep these customers in the fold in the next several years are likely to maintain and grow their overall share. Our recent analysis also looked as how age impacts vehicle purchasing loyalty. In general, older customers tend to be more loyal than younger customers. Manufacturer loyalty rates by age include: 18-24 years old – 58.3 percent 25-34 years old – 55.4 percent 35-44 years old – 59.9 percent 45-54 years old – 64.4 percent 55-64 years old – 68.2 percent 65+ years old – 70.4 percent General Motors market share still number one For manufacturer market share in 2016, General Motors led the way at 16.91 percent. However, this is a significant drop from the 24 percent share of total vehicles in operation (VIO) enjoyed by GM. Toyota was second in manufacturer market share at 15.46 percent, followed by Ford Motor Co. at 12.59 percent and FCA US at 11.77 percent. Honda rounded out the top five manufacturers at 11.19 percent. For manufacturer customer loyalty, however, Tesla came out on top at 73.6 percent, followed by Toyota at 68.7 percent and Subaru at 66.8 percent. Ford and GM round out the top five at 65.7 percent and 64.7 percent respectively. Pickup trucks claim top model share, loyalty rankings Pickup trucks again held the top two positions among the most popular vehicles, with the Ford F-150 at 3.06 percent and the Chevy Silverado at 2.61 percent. Honda claimed the next three spots with the Honda Civic (2.53 percent), the Honda CR-V (2.46 percent) and the Honda Accord (2.37 percent). While the F-150 and Silverado were the most popular models, their competition led the way in customer loyalty. The Ram 1500 full-size pickup truck had a customer loyalty rate of 50.9 percent, followed by the F-150 at 46.3 percent and the Lincoln MKZ at 43.9 percent. In other trends: Non-luxury small CUV/SUVs were tops in segment market at 17.81 percent, followed by non-luxury mid-size sedans (13.89 percent) and non-luxury mid-size SUVs (13.22 percent). Tesla led the industry with a Conquest/Defection ratio of 13.77 to 1. 4-cylinder engines overtook 6-cylinder engines as the top engine type, 38 percent to 37.4 percent Vehicles in Operation are expected to reach 292 million by 2020 For more information on how to drive customer loyalty rates, visit Experian Automotive.

If you listen to some of the latest auto industry analysis, you might get the impression that the industry is doomed because younger consumers aren’t interested in buying cars. It is true the vast majority – 61.3 percent – of new vehicle registrations in 2016 were from customers 45 years old and older, but is that really a cause for concern? Or are automotive marketers simply doing a better job of identifying customers with the means to buy their product? Remember Willie Sutton’s response when asked why he robbed banks? “Because that’s where the money is.” Maybe, just maybe, automotive marketers are getting better at market segmentation and finding the right customers for their vehicles. Maybe, they’re simply going to “where the money is” like Willie Sutton. How do auto marketers know where to look? Experian’s Mosaic® USA consumer lifestyle segmentation is a good place to start. It is made up of 71 different consumer groupings from the most affluent suburbanites to the most economically challenged. Understanding who and where these customers are and knowing which vehicles fit their current lifestyles and economic standing can help automakers and retailers boost sales. Take luxury vehicles, for example. In Q4 2016, the top three Mosaic® consumer segments in the luxury vehicle category included: American Royalty – 12.67 percent Silver Sophisticates – 7.69 percent Aging in Aquarius – 5.01 percent Who are these folks? Individuals and households in the: American Royalty include wealthy, empty nest Baby Boomers with million dollar homes; Silver Sophisticates include a mix of older and retired couples and singles living in suburban comfort; and Aging in Aquarius include empty-nesting couples between 50 and 65 years old with no children at home who are finally enjoying the kick-back-and-relax stage of their lives. What do each of these segments have in common? Their members have the disposable income to pamper themselves a bit, and a luxury vehicle might just be the way to do it. But, what if you sell minivans? The Mosaic consumer segment Babies and Bliss is one target audience to consider targeting.  These large families with multiple children live in homes valued over $250,000 and should be at the top of your prospecting list. How about those younger customers who seem so anti-auto? Fast Track Couples -- families on the road to upward mobility, under the age of 35, with good jobs and own their homes are ripe for a CUV. Or perhaps Status Seeking Singles -- younger, middle-class singles preoccupied with balancing work and leisure lifestyles? There’s got to be a hybrid vehicles waiting for them, right? Just because younger customers are still in the minority of auto buyers, it doesn’t mean the industry is in crisis. The right customer segment for the right vehicle is out there – even in the younger demographics. And besides…younger customers get older so now is the time to win their hearts and minds and begin building a long-term relationship with them. But, if you’re not the patient type and you’ve got a vehicle to sell, you can find your next best customer by using Mosaic USA to create cross-channel messaging that connects with the lifestyle and values of your audience. For more information on automotive target marketing, visit Experian Automotive.