Market Trends

While VantageScore® credit score super-prime consumers carried the lowest average credit card balance of all credit tiers in Q4 2012 ($2,581), this group experienced the greatest average balance increase (6 percent) when compared with the previous quarter. All other credit tiers had little or no change to their average credit card balance.

Using a more inclusive scoring model such as the new VantageScore® 3.0, lenders can score up to 30 million consumers who are labeled "unscoreable" by traditional models. Nearly 25 percent of these consumers are prime or near-prime credit quality.

While the overall average VantageScore® for consumers in Q4 2012 was 748, the average score can vary greatly by specific loan product. For example, the average VantageScore for consumers with a home equity line of credit is 864, which is the highest average score for all products, reflecting tighter lending requirements. Student loans have the lowest average VantageScore of 695.

Spending on debit and prepaid cards in the United States topped $2 trillion in 2011, with 75 percent of this purchase volume being non-ATM transactions. The evolution of marketing knowledge and tactics for the U.S. debit card market can be applied to other countries migrating payment from cash to noncash transactions.

The Experian/Moody's Analytics Small Business Credit Index tumbled in Q4 2012, falling 6.8 points to 97.3 from 104.1 in the previous quarter. This is the second consecutive quarterly decline and is the index's lowest reading since Q3 2011. The drop in the index was driven primarily by a rise in delinquent balances as a slowdown in personal income growth pulled retail sales lower.

The average unscoreable consumer has a good job and a better-than-adequate credit profile. Sixty-one percent of unscoreable consumers hold professional level or skilled labor jobs, 30 percent have credit profiles that fall into the super prime/prime category and 20 percent are considered near-prime.

According to a recent survey that asked Americans about their understanding of credit scores 83 percent have checked their credit scores and nearly half (42 percent) want to improve credit scores, but don’t know how. Sixty-five percent of respondents indicated they consider their credit score when engaging in credit-related activities such as applying for a new card or skipping a payment. When it comes to gender and credit, women (68 percent) are more likely than men (61 percent) to consider their credit score before making credit usage decisions.

Roughly 70 percent of credit scores change by up to 20 points in any given 90-day window. Most consumers experience a score improvement rather than a score drop, with 56 percent of consumers shifting higher, 34 percent shifting lower and 10 percent staying the same.

The December release of the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults, showed the national composite* increased for the second consecutive month, reaching 1.64 percent in November. The first mortgage default rate also continued its increase, moving from 1.47 percent in October to 1.58 percent in November. All other loan types – auto loans, bankcard and second mortgage – posted decreases in their default rates in November.

Bankcard originations have continued to increase, with Q3 2012 originations increasing 32 percent over Q3 2011. On average, 66 percent of the population now holds one or more bankcards. However, the percentage of consumers who have a bankcard varies greatly by VantageScore® tier:

To learn the status of Americans' current credit card spending, Credit.com recently compiled a list of the states with the highest average bankcard balance per consumer in the third quarter of 2012. While several Northeastern states dominated the list, Alaska took first place, with an average bankcard balance per consumer of $5,572. On the other end of the spectrum, North Dakota and Iowa had the lowest bankcard balances, at $3,595 and $3,624, respectively.

Returns on investment from superior customer-centric strategies easily can exceed 20 percent in the first year of implementation. However, this number is compounded exponentially in subsequent years due to repeat business, new customer referrals and customer loyalty. Learn more about the design and deployment of holistic retail bank customer-centric strategies that synthesize critical information and qualitative banker insights. Source: Implementing differentiated customer-centric strategies: Retail-banker-friendly strategy development that resonates with your customers and shareholders, an Experian white paper.

Six states are the top producers of turkeys: Minnesota at 46 million, North Carolina at 36 million, Arkansas at 29 million, Missouri at 17.5 million, Virginia at 17 million and Indiana at 16.5 million. This accounts for nearly two-thirds of turkeys produced in the United States as of September 2012. The average wholesale price for frozen whole turkey during fourth-quarter 2012 is projected to range from $1.10 to $1.14 per pound -- similar to the 2011 fourth-quarter average price of $1.11 per pound. The average retail price for whole frozen turkeys in September 2012 was $1.62, about 6 cents lower than the average retail price for whole frozen turkeys in September 2011. Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

When validating a model in the presence of overlay criteria, it is important to remember that any metrics computed at the aggregate portfolio level will not be indicative of the model's true performance. While traditional validation methodologies and portfolio metrics may provide directional insight into model performance, the overlay strategy is an additional variable that must be accounted for in each step of the validation analysis. An effective validation should include: Establishment of an appropriate base line Piece-wise validation of overlay segments An overlay strategy analysis Do you have model validation questions? Learn more and transform your business goals with Experian's Analytical Consulting Services. Source: VantageScore® Solutions LLC white paper: Validating a Credit Score Model in Conjunction with Additional Underwriting Criteria. VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.

As of Q2 2012, subprime borrowers are carrying the largest retail card balances, with an average card balance per account of $620 and $700 for VantageScore® credit score D and F tiers, respectively. The national average balance on a retail account is $329 — an increase of 39 percent over 2011. VantageScore® credit score A tier (super-prime) consumers carry the lowest average balance at $99 per account. Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports. VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.