Models & Scores

Marketers are keenly aware of how important it is to “Know thy customer.” Yet customer knowledge isn’t restricted to the marketing-savvy. It’s also essential to credit risk managers and model developers. Identifying and separating customers into distinct groups based on various types of behavior is foundational to building effective custom models. This integral part of custom model development is known as segmentation analysis. Segmentation is the process of dividing customers or prospects into groupings based on similar behaviors such as length of time as a customer or payment patterns like credit card revolvers versus transactors. The more similar or homogeneous the customer grouping, the less variation across the customer segments are included in each segment’s custom model development. So how many scorecards are needed to aptly score and mitigate credit risk? There are several general principles we’ve learned over the course of developing hundreds of models that help determine whether multiple scorecards are warranted and, if so, how many. A robust segmentation analysis contains two components. The first is the generation of potential segments, and the second is the evaluation of such segments. Here I’ll discuss the generation of potential segments within a segmentation scheme. A second blog post will continue with a discussion on evaluation of such segments. When generating a customer segmentation scheme, several approaches are worth considering: heuristic, empirical and combined. A heuristic approach considers business learnings obtained through trial and error or experimental design. Portfolio managers will have insight on how segments of their portfolio behave differently that can and often should be included within a segmentation analysis. An empirical approach is data-driven and involves the use of quantitative techniques to evaluate potential customer segmentation splits. During this approach, statistical analysis is performed to identify forms of behavior across the customer population. Different interactive behavior for different segments of the overall population will correspond to different predictive patterns for these predictor variables, signifying that separate segment scorecards will be beneficial. Finally, a combination of heuristic and empirical approaches considers both the business needs and data-driven results. Once the set of potential customer segments has been identified, the next step in a segmentation analysis is the evaluation of those segments. Stay tuned as we look further into this topic. Learn more about how Experian Decision Analytics can help you with your segmentation or custom model development needs.

Traditional credit attributes provide immense value for lenders when making decisions, but when used alone, they are limited to capturing credit behavior during a single moment of time. To add a deeper layer of insight, Experian® today unveiled new trended attributes, aimed at giving lenders a wider view into consumer credit behavior and patterns over time. Ultimately, this helps them expand into new risk segments and better tailor credit offers to meet consumer needs. An Experian analysis shows that custom models developed using Trended 3DTM attributes provide up to a 7 percent lift in predictive performance when compared with models developed using traditional attributes only. “While trended data has been shown to provide additional insight into a consumer’s credit behavior, lack of standardization across different providers has made it a challenge to gain those insights,” said Steve Platt, Experian’s Group President of Decision Analytics and Data Quality. “Trended 3D makes it easy for our clients to get value from trended data in a consistent manner, so they can make more informed decisions across the credit life cycle and, more importantly, give consumers better access to lending options.” Experian’s Trended 3D attributes help lenders unlock valuable insights hidden within credit reports. For example, two people may have similar balances, utilization and risk scores, but their paths to that point may be substantially different. The solution synthesizes a 24-month history of five key credit report fields — balance, credit limit or original loan amount, scheduled payment amount, actual payment amount and last payment date. Lenders can gain insight into: Changes in balances over time Migration patterns from one tradeline or multiple tradelines to another Variations in utilization and credit limits Changes in payment activity and collections Balance transfer and debt consolidation behavior Behavior patterns of revolving trades versus transactional trades Additionally, Trended 3D leverages machine learning techniques to evaluate behavioral data and recognize patterns that previously may have gone undetected. To learn more information about Experian’s Trended 3D attributes, click here.

Today’s consumer lending environment is more dynamic and competitive than ever, with renewed focus on personal loans, marketplace lending and the ever-challenging credit card market. One of the significant learnings from the economic crisis is how digging deeper into consumer credit data can help provide insights into trending behavior and not just point-in-time credit evaluation. For example, I’ve found consumer trending behavior to be very powerful when evaluating risks of credit card revolvers versus transactors. However, trended data can come with its own challenges when the data isn’t interpreted uniformly across multiple data sources. To address these challenges, Experian® has developed trended attributes, which can provide significant lift in the development of segmentation strategies and custom models. These Trended 3DTM attributes are used effectively across the life cycle to drive balance transfers, mitigate high-risk exposure and fine-tune strategies for customers near score cutoffs. One of the things I look for when exploring new trended data is the ability to further understand payment velocity. These characteristics go far beyond revolver and transactor flags, and into the details of consumer usage and trajectory. As illustrated in the chart, a consumer isn’t easily classified into one borrowing persona (revolver, transactor, etc.) or another — it’s a spectrum of use trends. Experian’s Trended 3D provides details needed to understand payment rates, slope of balance growth and even trends in delinquency. These trends provide strong lift across all decisioning strategies to improve your business performance. In recent engagements with lenders, new segmentation tools and data for the development of custom models is at the forefront of the conversation. Risk managers are looking for help leveraging new modeling techniques such as machine learning, but often have challenges moving from prior practices. In addition, attribute governance has been a key area of focus that is addressed with Trended 3D, as it was developed using machine learning techniques and is delivered with the necessary documentation for regulatory conformance. This provides an impressive foundation, allowing you to integrate the most advanced analytics into your credit decisioning. Alternative data isn’t the only source for new consumer insights. Looking at the traditional credit report can still provide so much insight; we simply need to take advantage of new techniques in analytics development. Trended attributes provide a high-definition lens that opens a world of opportunity.

You just finished redeveloping an existing scorecard, and now it’s time to replace the old with the new. If not properly planned, switching from one scorecard to another within a decisioning or scoring system can be disruptive. Once a scorecard has been redeveloped, it’s important to measure the impact of changes within the strategy as a result of replacing the old model with the new one. Evaluating such changes and modifying the strategy where needed will not only optimize strategy performance, but also maximize the full value of the newly redeveloped model. Such an impact assessment can be completed with a swap set analysis. The phrase swap set refers to “swapping out” a set of customer accounts — generally bad accounts — and replacing them with, or “swapping in,” a set of good customer accounts. Swap-ins are the customer population segment you didn’t previously approve under the old model but would approve with the new model. Swap-outs are the customer population segment you previously approved with the old model but wouldn’t approve with the new model. A worthy objective is to replace bad accounts with good accounts, thereby reducing the overall bad rate. However, different approaches can be used when evaluating swap sets to optimize your strategy and keep: The same overall bad rate while increasing the approval rate. The same approval rate while lowering the bad rate. The same approval and bad rate but increase the customer activation or customer response rates. It’s also important to assess the population that doesn’t change — the population that would be approved or declined using either the old or new model. The following chart highlights the three customer segments within a swap set analysis. With the incumbent model, the bad rate is 8.3%. With the new model, however, the bad rate is 4.9%. This is a reduction in the bad rate of 3.4 percentage points or a 41% improvement in the bad rate. This type of planning also is beneficial when replacing a generic model with another or a custom-developed model. Click here to learn more about how the Experian Decision Analytics team can help you manage the impacts of migrating from a legacy model to a newly developed model.

In 2017, 81 percent of U.S. Americans have a social media profile, representing a five percent growth compared to the previous year. Pick your poison. Facebook. Instagram. Twitter. Snapchat. LinkedIn. The list goes on, and it is clear social media is used by all. Grandma and grandpa are hooked, and tweens are begging for accounts. Factor in the amount of data being generated by our social media obsession – one report claims Americans are using 2,675,700 GB of Internet data per minute – and it makes some lenders wonder if social media insights can be used to assess credit risk. Can banks, credit unions and online lenders look at social media profiles when making a loan decision and garner intel to help them make a credit decision? After all, in some circles, people believe a person’s character is just as important as their income and assets when making a lending decision. Certainly, some businesses are seeing value in collecting social media insights for marketing purposes. An individual’s interests, likes and click-throughs reveal a lot about their lifestyle and potential brand linkages. But credit decisions are different. In fact, there are two key concerns when considering social media data as it pertains to financial decisions. There is that little rule called the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, which states credit must be extended to all creditworthy applicants regardless of race, religion, gender, marital status, age and other personal characteristics. A quick scan of any Facebook profile can reveal these things, and more. Credit applications do not ask for these specific details for this very reason. Social media data can also be manipulated. One can “like” financial articles, participate in educational quizzes and represent themselves as if they are financially responsible. Social media can be gamed. On the flip side, a consumer can’t manipulate their payment history. There is no question that data is essential for all aspects of the financial services industry, but when it comes to making credit decisions on a consumer, FCRA data trumps everything. In the consumer’s best interest, it is essential that credit data be both displayable and disputable. The right data must be used. For lenders, their primary goal is to assess a consumer’s stability, ability and willingness to pay. Today, social media can’t address those needs. It’s not to say that social media data can’t be used in the future, but financial institutions are still grappling with how it can be predictive of credit behavior over time. In the meantime, other sources of data are being evaluated. Everything from including on-time utility and rental payments, insights on smaller dollar loans and various credit attributes can help to provide a more holistic view of today’s credit consumer. There is no question social media data will continue to grow exponentially. But in the world of credit decisioning, the “like” button cannot be given quite yet.

We use our laptops and mobile phones every day to communicate with our friends, family, and co-workers. But how do software programs communicate with each other? APIs--Application Programming Interfaces--are the hidden backbone of our modern world, allowing software programs to communicate with one another. Behind the scenes of every app and website we use, is a mesh of systems “talking” to each other through a series of APIs. Today, the API economy is quickly changing how the world interacts. Everything from photo sharing, to online shopping, to hailing a cab is happening through APIs. Because of APIs, technical innovation is happening at a faster pace than ever. We caught up with Edgar Uaje, senior product manager at Experian, to find out more about APIs in the financial services space. What exactly are APIs and why are they so important? And how do they apply to B2B? APIs are the building blocks of many of our applications that exist today. They are an intermediary that allows application programs to communicate, interact, and share data with various operating systems or other control programs. In B2B, APIs allow our clients to consume our data, products, and services in a standard format. They can utilize the APIs for internal systems to feed their risk models or external applications for their customers. As Experian has new data and services available, our clients can quickly access the data and services. Are APIs secure? APIs are secure as long as the right security measures are put in place. There are many security measures that can be utilized such as authentication, authorization, channel encryption and payload encryption. Experian takes security seriously and ensures that the right security measures are put in place to protect our data. For example, one of the recent APIs that was built this year utilizes OAuth, channel encryption, and payload encryption. The central role of APIs is promoting innovation and rapid but stable evolution, but they seem to only have taken hold selectively in much of the business world. Is the world of financial services truly ready for APIs? APIs have been around for a long time, but they are getting much more traction recently. Financial tech and online market place lending companies are leading the charge of consuming data, products, and services through APIs because they are nimble and fast. With standard API interfaces, these companies can move as fast as their development teams can. The world of financial services is evolving, and the time is now for them to embrace APIs in day-to-day business. How can APIs benefit a bank or credit union, for example? APIs can benefit a bank or credit union by allowing them to consume Experian data, products, and services in a standard format. The value to them is faster speed to market for applications (internal/external), ease of integration, and control over the user’s experience. APIs allow a bank or credit union to quickly develop new and innovative applications quickly, with the support of their development teams. Can you tell us more about the API Developer Portal? Experian will publish the documentation of our available APIs on our Developer Portal over time as they become available. Our clients will have a one-stop shop to view available APIs, review API documentation, obtain credentials, and test APIs. This is simplifying data access by utilizing REST API, making it easier for our clients.

Looking to score more consumers, but worried about increased risk? A recent VantageScore® LLC study found that consumers rendered “unscoreable” by commonly used credit scoring models are nearly identical in their financial and credit behavior to scoreable consumers. To get a more detailed financial portrait of the “expanded” population, credit files were supplemented with demographic and economic data. The study found: Consumers who scored above 620 using the VantageScore® credit score exhibited profiles of sufficient quality to justify mortgage loans on par with those of conventionally scoreable consumers. 3 to 2.5 million – a majority of the 3.4 million consumers categorized as potentially eligible for mortgages – demonstrated sufficient income to support a mortgage in their geographic areas. The findings demonstrate that the VantageScore® credit score is a scalable solution to expanding mortgage credit without relaxing credit standards should the FHFA and GSEs accept VantageScore® credit scores. Want to know more?

Lenders are looking for ways to accurately score more consumers and grow their applicant pool without increasing risk. And it looks like more and more are turning to the VantageScore® credit score to help achieve their goals. So, who’s using the VantageScore® credit score? 9 of the top 10 financial institutions. 18 of the top 25 credit card issuers. 21 of the top 25 credit unions. VantageScore leverages the collective experience of the industry’s leading experts on credit data, modeling and analytics to provide a more consistent and highly predictive credit score. >>Want to know more?  

As credit behavior and economic conditions continue to evolve, using a model that is validated regularly can give lenders greater confidence in the model’s performance. VantageScore® Solutions, LLC validates all its models annually to promote transparency and support financial institutions with model governance. The results of the most recent validation demonstrate the consistent ability of VantageScore® to accurately score more than 30 million to 35 million consumers considered unscoreable by other models — including 9.5 million Hispanic and African-American consumers. The findings reinforce the importance of using advanced credit scoring models to make more accurate decisions while providing consumers with access to fair and equitable credit. >> VantageScore® Annual Validation Results 2016 VantageScore® is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC  

A recent survey commissioned by VantageScore® Solutions, LLC found that among consumers who are unable to obtain credit, 27% attribute the situation to lack of a credit score. Most consumers support newer methods of calculating credit scores 49% feel that consistent rental, utility and telecommunications payments should count in determining credit scores 50% agree that competition in the credit scoring marketplace is beneficial Lenders can help solve the credit gap by using advanced risk models that can accurately score more consumers. The result is a win-win: More consumers get access to mainstream credit, and lenders gain more customers. >> Infographic: America’s Giant Credit Gap VantageScore® is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC.

Experian® recently released the 2015 State of Credit report, which analyzes key credit metrics across the nation.

VantageScore® models are the only credit scoring models to employ the same characteristic information and model design across the three credit bureaus.

According to VantageScore® Solutions' annual validation study, VantageScore 3.0 scores 36 million incremental consumers considered unscoreable by conventional credit scoring models.

As the summer home buying season kicks into high gear, a newly released survey shows the importance of understanding credit scores and their impact on homebuyer behavior.

According to research from VantageScore® Solutions LLC, 30 to 35 million people are not scored by the most popular credit-scoring models. When measured by more modern scoring methodologies — methods that leverage the data that exists in a person's credit file better — as many as 10 million of these unscoreable consumers were found to have prime or near prime credit scores. The study reinforces the importance of using advanced credit scores in order to profitably grow portfolios while providing consumers with access to fair and equitable credit. Credit Scoring Gaps Are Leaving Millions of Consumers Behind VantageScore® is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC.