Loading...

Effectively Scoring Credit Risk in Today’s Economic Environment

by Laura Burrows 2 min read April 14, 2020

In the face of severe financial stress, such as that brought about by an economic downturn, lenders seeking to reduce their credit risk exposure often resort to tactics executed at the portfolio level, such as raising credit score cut-offs for new loans or reducing credit limits on existing accounts.

What if lenders could tune their portfolio throughout economic cycles so they don’t have to rely on abrupt measures when faced with current or future economic disruptions? Now they can.

The impact of economic downturns on financial institutions

Historically, economic hardships have directly impacted loan performance due to differences in demand, supply or a combination of both. For example, let’s explore the Great Recession of 2008, which challenged financial institutions with credit losses, declines in the value of investments and reductions in new business revenues.

Over the short term, the financial crisis of 2008 affected the lending market by causing financial institutions to lose money on mortgage defaults and credit to consumers and businesses to dry up. For the much longer term, loan growth at commercial banks decreased substantially and remained negative for almost four years after the financial crisis. Additionally, lending from banks to small businesses decreased by 18 percent between 2008-2011.

And – it was no walk in the park for consumers. Already faced with a rise in unemployment and a decline in stock values, they suddenly found it harder to qualify for an extension of credit, as lenders tightened their standards for both businesses and consumers.

Are you prepared to navigate and successfully respond to the current environment? Those who prove adaptable to harsh economic conditions will be the ones most poised to lead when the economy picks up again.

Introducing the FICO® Resilience Index

The FICO® Resilience Index provides an additional way to evaluate the quality of portfolios at any point in an economic cycle. This allows financial institutions to discover and manage potential latent risk within groups of consumers bearing similar FICO® Scores, without cutting off access to credit for resilient consumers. By incorporating the FICO® Resilience Index into your lending strategies, you can gain deeper insight into consumer sensitivity for more precise credit decisioning.

What are the benefits?

The FICO® Resilience Index is designed to assess consumers with respect to their resilience or sensitivity to an economic downturn and provides insight into which consumers are more likely to default during periods of economic stress. It can be used by lenders as another input in credit decisions and account strategies across the credit lifecycle and can be delivered with a credit file, along with the FICO® Score.

No matter what factors lead to an economic correction, downturns can result in unexpected stressors, affecting consumers’ ability or willingness to repay. The FICO® Resilience Index can easily be added to your current FICO® Score processes to become a key part of your resilience-building strategies.

Learn more

Related Posts

Since 1996, The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has issued more than 27 million individual taxpayer identification numbers (ITINs) –⁠ a 9-digit number used by individuals who are required to file or report taxes in the United States but are not eligible to obtain a Social Security number (SSN). Across the country, ITIN holders are actively contributing to their communities and the U.S. financial system. They pay bills, build businesses, contribute billions in taxes and manage their finances responsibly. Yet despite their clear engagement, many remain underrepresented within traditional lending models.  Lenders have a meaningful opportunity to bridge the gap between intention and impact. By rethinking how ITIN consumers are evaluated and supported, financial institutions can: Reduce barriers that have historically held capable borrowers back Build products that reflect real borrower needs Foster trust and strengthen community relationships Drive sustainable, responsible growth Our latest white paper takes a more holistic look at ITIN consumers, highlighting their credit behaviors, performance patterns and long-term growth potential. The findings reveal a population that is not only financially engaged, but also demonstrating signs of ongoing stability and mobility. A few takeaways include: ITIN holders maintain a lower debt-to-income ratio than SSN consumers. ITIN holders exhibit fewer derogatory accounts (180–⁠400 days past due). After 12 months, 76.9% of ITIN holders remained current on trades, a rate 15% higher than SSN consumers. With deeper insight into this segment, lenders can make more informed, inclusive decisions. Read the full white paper to uncover the trends and opportunities shaping the future of ITIN lending. Download white paper

by Theresa Nguyen 2 min read February 2, 2026

Unlock the future of fintech by exploring how alternative data is reshaping decision-making and growth strategies.

by Laura Burrows 2 min read January 12, 2026

Learn how Experian's Credit + Cashflow Score leads to a 40% improvement in predictive accuracy compared with conventional credit models. 

by Zohreen Ismali 2 min read November 25, 2025