By: Uzma Aziz They say, “a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush” …and the same can be said about customers in a portfolio. Studies have shown time and again that the cost of acquiring a new financial services customer is many times higher than the cost of keeping an existing one. Retention has always been an integral part of portfolio management, and with the market finally on an upward trajectory, there is all the more need to hold on to profitable customers. Experts at CEB TowerGroup are forecasting a combined annual growth rate of over 12% for new credit cards alone through 2015. Combine that with a growing market with better-informed and savvy customers, and you have a very good reason to be diligent about retaining your best ones. Also, different sized institutions have varying degrees of success. According to a study by J.D. Power & Associates, in 2011 overall, 9.6% of customers indicated they switched their primary bank account during the past year, up from 8.7% a year ago. Smaller banks and credit unions did see drastically lower attrition than they did in prior years: just 0.9% on average, down from 8.8% a year earlier. For large, mid-sized and regional banks unfortunately, it was a different story with attrition rates at 10 to 11.3%. It gets even more complex when you drill down to a specific type of financial product such as a credit card. Experian’s own analysis of credit card customer retention shows that while the majority of customers are loyal, a good percentage attrite actively—that is, close their accounts and open new ones—while a bigger percent are silent attriters, those that do not close accounts but pay down balances and move their spend to others. Obviously, attrition is a continual topic that needs to be addressed, but to minimize it you first need to understand the root cause. Poor service seems to be the leading factor and one study* showed that 31% of consumers who switched banks did so because of poor service, followed by product features and finding a better offer elsewhere. So what are financial institutions doing to retain their profitable customers? There are lots of tools ranging from easy to more complex e.g., fee and interest waiver, line increases, rewards, and call center priority to name a few. But the key to successful customer retention is to look within the portfolio combining both internal and external information. This encompasses both proactive and reactive strategies. Proactive strategies include identifying customer behaviors which lead to balance or account attrition and taking action before a customer does. This includes monitoring changes over time and identifying thresholds for action as well as segmentation and modeling to identify problem. Reactive strategies, as the name suggests, is reacting to when a customer has already taken action which will lead to attrition; these include monitoring portfolios for new inquiries and account openings or response to customer complaints. In some cases, this maybe too little too late, but in others reactive response may be what saves a customer relationship. Whichever strategy or combination of these you choose, the key points to remember to retain customers and keep them happy are: Understand your current customers’ perceptions about credit, as they many have changed—customers are likely to be more educated, and the most profitable ones expect only the best customer service experience Be approachable and personal – meet customer needs—or better yet, anticipate those needs, focusing on loyalty and customer experience You don’t need to “give away the farm” – sometimes a partial fee waiver works * Global Consumer Banking Survey 2011, by Ernst & Young  

Total balances of automotive loan portfolios rose for all types of lending organizations in Q2 2012, reaching $682 billion, compared with $646 billion in Q2 2011. Despite this strong growth, overall loan balances still lag behind prerecession levels. In Q2 2007, outstanding loan balances reached $701 billion. The average 30 and 60 day delinquency rate fell slightly year over year across all types of lending organizations, including banks, captive finance, finance companies and credit unions. Sign up for our Sept. 6th Webinar for more information on Q2 2012 automotive credit trends. Source: Experian press release dated — Aug 8, 2012: Loan delinquencies and automotive repossessions drop in Q2, according to Experian Automotive.

By: Ken Pruett The great thing about being in front of customers is that you learn something from every meeting.  Over the years I have figured out that there is typically no “right” or “wrong” way to do something.  Even in the world of fraud and compliance I find that each client's approach varies greatly.  It typically comes down to what the business need is in combination with meeting some sort of compliance obligation like the Red Flag Rules or the Patriot Act.  For example, the trend we see in the prepaid space is that basic verification of common identity elements is really the only need.   The one exception might be the use of a few key fraud indicators like a deceased SSN.  The thought process here is that the fraud risk is relatively low vs. someone opening up a credit card account.  So in this space, pass rates drive the business objective of getting customers through the application process as quickly and easily as possible….while meeting basic compliance obligations. In the world of credit, fraud prevention is front and center and plays a key role in the application process.  Our most conservative customers often use the traditional bureau alerts to drive fraud prevention.  This typically creates high manual review rates but they feel that they want to be very customer focused. Therefore, they are willing to take on the costs of these reviews to maintain that focus.  The feedback we often get is that these alerts often lead to a high number of false positives. Examples of messages they may key off of are things like the SSN not being issued or the On-File Inquiry address not matching.  The trend is this space is typically focused on fraud scoring. Review rates are what drive score cut-offs leading to review rates that are typically 5% or less.  Compliance issues are often resolved by using some combination of the score and data matching. For example, if there is a name and address mismatch that does not necessarily mean the application will kick out for review.  If the Name, SSN, and DOB match…and the score shows very little chance of fraud, the application can be passed through in an automated fashion.  This risk based approach is typically what we feel is a best practice.  This moves them away from looking at the binary results from individual messages like the SSN alerts mentioned above. The bottom line is that everyone seems to do things differently, but the key is that each company takes compliance and fraud prevention seriously.  That is why meeting with our customers is such an enjoyable part of my job.

Join us Sept 12-13 in New York City for the Finovate conference to check out the best new innovations in financial and banking technology from a mixture of leading established companies and startups. As part of Finovate's signature demo-only format for this event, Steve Wagner, President, Consumer Information Services and Michele Pearson, Vice President of Marketing, Consumer Information Services, from Experian will demonstrate how providers and lead generators can access a powerful new marketing tool to: Drive new traffic Lower online customer acquisition costs Generate high-quality, credit-qualified leads Proactively utilize individual consumer credit data online in real time Networking sessions will follow company demos each day, giving attendees the chance to speak directly with the Experian innovators they saw on stage. Finovate 2011 had more than 1,000 financial institution executives, venture capitalists, members of the press and entrepreneurs in attendance, and they expecting an even larger audience at the 2012 event. We look forward to seeing you at Finovate! 

  In this three-part series, Everything you wanted to know about credit risk scores, but were afraid to ask, I will provide a high level overview of: What a credit risk score predicts; Common myths about credit risk scores and how to educate consumers; and finally, Scoring traditionally unscoreable consumers Part I: So what exactly does a credit risk score predict? A credit risk score predicts the probability that a consumer will become 90 days past due or greater on any given account over the next 24 months. A three digit risk score relates to probability; or in some circles, probability of default. An example of the probability of default: For a consumer who has a VantageScore® credit score of 900, there is a 0.21% chance they will have a 90 day or greater past due occurrence in the next 24 months or odds of 2 out of 1,000 consumers A consumer with a VantageScore® credit score of 560 will have a 35% chance they will have a 90 day or greater past due occurrence in the next 24 months or odds of 350 out of 1,000 consumers This concept comes to life in light of changes being made on the regulatory front from the FDIC in the new proposed large bank pricing rule, which will change the way large lenders define and calculate risk for their FDIC Deposit Insurance Assessment. One of the key changes is that the traditional three-digit credit score used to set its risk threshold will be replaced with “probability of default” (PD) metric.  Based on the proposed rule, the new definition for a higher risk loan is one that has a 20% or higher probability of defaulting in two years. The new rule has a number of wide-ranging implications. It will impact a lender’s FDIC assessment and will allow them to uniformly and easily assess risk regardless of their use of proprietary or generic credit risk scoring modes. In part 2, I will dispel some common consumer myths about credit scores and how lenders can provide credit education to their customers.

By: Mike Horrocks In 1950 Alice Stewart, a British medical professor, embarked on a study to identify what was causing so many cases of cancer in children.  Her broad study covered many aspects of the lives of both child and mother, and the final result was that a large spike in the number of children struck with cancer came from mothers that were x-rayed during pregnancy.   The data was clear and statistically beyond reproach and yet for nearly 25 more years, the practice of using x-rays during pregnancy continued. Why didn't doctors stop using x-rays?  They clearly thought the benefits outweighed the risk and they also had a hard time accepting Dr. Stewart’s study.  So how, did Dr. Stewart gain more acceptance of the study – she had a colleague, George Kneale, whose sole job was to disprove her study.  Only by challenging her theories, could she gain the confidence to prove them right.  I believe that theory of challenging the outcome carries over to the practice of risk management as well, as we look to avoid or exploit the next risk around the corner. So how can we as risk managers find the next trends in risk management?  I don’t pretend to have all the answers, but here are some great ideas. Analyze your analysis.  Are you drawing conclusions off of what would be obvious data sources or a rather simplified hypothesis?  If you are, you can bet your competitors are too.  Look for data, tools and trends that can enrich your analysis.  In a recent discussion with a lending institution that has a relationship with a logistics firm, they said that the insights they get from the logistical experts has been spot-on in terms of regional business indicators and lending risks.   Stop thinking about the next 90 days and start thinking about the next 9 quarters. Don’t get me wrong, the next 90 days are vital, but what is coming in the next 2+ years is critical.   Expand the discussion around risk with a holistic risk team. Seek out people with different backgrounds, different ways of thinking and different experiences as a part of your risk management team.  The broader the coverage of disciplines the more likely opportunities will be uncovered. Taking these steps may introduce some interesting discussions, even to the point of conflict in some meetings.  However, when we look back at Dr. Stewart and Mr. Kneale, their conflicts brought great results and allowed for some of the best thinking at the time.   So go ahead, open yourself and your organization to a little conflict and let’s discover the best thinking in risk management.

The Experian/Moody's Analytics Small Business Credit Index edged up 0.9 points in Q2 2012, to 104.1 from 103.2. High-level findings from the Q2 report show that credit quality will be slow to improve in coming months, and threats to consumer confidence and spending have become more prominent. Business confidence is in line with an economy growing below potential. This factor could affect hiring through the rest of the year, postponing the emergence of a strong, consumer-led recovery. Download the entire report on Small Business Credit. Source: Experian press release—Aug 7, 2012: Small-business credit conditions slightly improve as economy shows signs of stalling

By: Teri Tassara The intense focus and competition among lenders for the super prime and prime prospect population has become saturated, requiring lenders to look outside of their safety net for profitable growth.  This leads to the question “Where are the growth opportunities in a post-recession world?” Interestingly, the most active and positive movement in consumer credit is in what we are terming “emerging prime” consumers, represented by a VantageScore® of 701-800, or letter grade “C”. We’ve seen that of those consumers classified as VantageScore C in 3Q 2006, 32% had migrated to a VantageScore B and another 4% to an A grade over a 5-year window of time.  And as more of the emerging prime consumers rebuild credit and recover from the economic downturn, demand for credit is increasing once again.  Case in point, the auto lending industry to the “subprime” population is expected to increase the most, fueled by consumer demand.  Lenders striving for market advantage are looking to find the next sweet spot, and ahead of the competition. Fortunately, lenders can apply sophisticated and advanced analytical methods to confidently segment the emerging prime consumers into the appropriate risk classification and predict their responsiveness for a variety of consumer loans.  Here are some recommended steps to identifying consumers most likely to add significant value to a lender’s portfolio: Identify emerging prime consumers Understand how prospects are using credit Apply the most predictive credit attributes and scores for risk assessment Understand responsiveness level The stops and starts that have shaped this recovery have contributed to years of slow growth and increased competition for the same “super prime” consumers.  However, these post-recession market conditions are gradually paving the way to opportunistic profitable growth.  With advanced science, lenders can pair caution with a profitable growth strategy, applying greater rigor and discipline in their decision-making.

Some borrowers who are deemed subprime by traditional credit scoring criteria are actually quite creditworthy and are identified as prime or near-prime consumers when using the more inclusive VantageScore® credit score. Based on a VantageScore® Solutions' study of infrequent users of credit, 15.5 percent were found to have either prime or super-prime risk. In addition, among new entrants to the credit scene — including students who recently graduated, immigrants and recently divorced consumers — 26.5 percent were found to have either prime or super-prime risk profiles. Learn more about VantageScore® Solutions, identified as a Preferred Partner by the National Association of Federal Credit Unions (NAFCU). Source: VantageScore Solutions summer 2012 newsletter, The Score VantageScore® is owned by VantageScore Solutions, LLC.

Last week, a group of us came together for a formal internal forum where we had the opportunity to compare notes with colleagues, hear updates on the challenges clients are facing and brainstorm solutions to client business problems across the discipline areas of analytics, fraud and software.   As usual, fraud prevention and fraud analytics were key areas of discussion but what was also notable was how big a role compliance is playing as a business driver.  First party fraud and identity theft detection are important components, sure, but as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) gains momentum and more teeth, the demand for compliance accommodation and consistency grows critical as well.  The role of good fraud management is to help accomplish regulatory compliance by providing more than just fraud risk scores, it can help to: Know Your Customer (KYC) or Customer Information Program (CIP) details such as the match results and level of matching across name, address, SSN, date of birth, phone, and Driver’s License. Understand the results of checks for high risk identity conditions such as deceased SSN, SSN more frequently used by another, address mismatches, and more. Perform a check against the Office of Foreign Asset Control’s SDN list and the details of any matches. And while some fraud solutions out there make use of these types of comparisons when generating a score or decision, they may not pass these along to their customers.  And just think how valuable these details can be for both consistent compliance decisions and creating an audit trail for any possible audits.  

The Fed’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and Capital Plan Review (CapPR) stress scenarios depict a severe recession that, although unlikely, the largest U.S. banks must now account for in their capital planning process.  The bank holding companies’ ability to maintain adequate capital reserves, while managing the risk levels of growing portfolios are key to staying within the stress test parameters and meeting liquidity requirements. While each banks’ portfolios will perform differently, as a whole, the delinquency performance of major products such as Auto, Bankcard and Mortgage continues to perform well.   Here is a comparison between the latest quarter results and two years ago from the Experian – Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.   Although not a clear indication of how well a bank will perform against the hypothetical scenario of the stress tests, measures such as Probability of Default, Loss Given Default and Exposure at Default to indicate a bank’s risk may be dramatically improved from just a few years ago given recent delinquency trends in core portfolios. Recently we released a white paper that provides an introduction to Basel III regulation and discusses some of its impact on banks and the banking system.  We also present a real business case showing how organizations turn these regulatory challenges into buisness opportunities by optimizing their credit strategies.   Download the paper - Creating value in challenging times: An innovative approach to Basel III compliance.  

By: Shannon Lois These are challenging times for large financial institutions. Still feeling the impact from the financial crisis of 2007, the banking industry must endure increased oversight, declining margins, and fierce competition—all in a lackluster economy. Financial institutions are especially subject to closer regulatory scrutiny. As part of this stepped-up oversight, the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) conducts annual assessments, including  “stress tests”, of the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of BHCs to ensure that these institutions can continue operations in the event of economic distress. The Fed expects banks to have credible plans, which are evaluated across a range of criteria, showing that they have adequate capital to continue to lend, even under adverse economic conditions. Minimum capital standards are governed by both the FRB and under Basel III. The International Basel Committee established the Basel accords to provide revised safeguards following the financial crisis, as an effort to ensure that banks met capital requirements and were not overly leveraged. Using input data provided by the BHCs themselves, FRB analysts have developed stress scenario methodology for banks to follow. These models generate loss estimates and post-stress capital ratios. The CCAR includes a somewhat unnerving hypothetical scenario that depicts a severe recession in the U.S. economy with an unemployment rate of 13%, a 50% drop in equity prices, and 21% decline in housing market. Stress testing is intended to measure how well a bank could endure this gloomy picture. Between meeting the compliance requirements of both BASEL III and the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), financial institutions commit sizeable time and resources to administrative tasks that offer few easily quantifiable returns. Nevertheless—in addition to ensuring they don’t suddenly discover themselves in a trillion-dollar hole—these audit responsibilities do offer some other benefits and considerations.

You’ve heard of the websites that can locate sex offenders near you. Maybe you’ve even used them to scope out your neighborhood. But are those websites giving you the full picture? What if some sex offenders are flying under the radar? According to a recently released study from Utica College, more than 16 percent of sex offenders attempt to avoid mandatory monitoring by manipulating their identity. They use multiple aliases, use various personal identifying information such as social security numbers or date of birth, steal identity information from family members, manipulate their name, use family or friends’ addresses, alter their physical appearance or move to states with less stringent laws. Finding ways to slide under the radar means registered sex offenders could live near schools and playgrounds, or even gain unapproved employment. In one case, 29-year-old Neil Rodreick enrolled in at least four schools in Arizona, posing as a 12-year-old boy. He was finally caught when one school was unable to verify the information on his paperwork. A parallel study conducted by Utica demonstrated that awareness of identity manipulation of sex offenders is low. Of 223 law enforcement agencies surveyed in 46 states, only five percent knew of an identity manipulation case within their jurisdiction. Close to half (40 percent) of respondents said that they had zero cases, indicating that some may not even be aware of this issue. Clearly, additional monitoring is needed. Experian offers sex offender monitoring that conducts an in-depth search of sex offender registries in all 50 states, Washington D.C., Puerto Rico and Guam to help find and identify sex offenders. It also provides notifications when a sex offender is living in or moves to a customer’s neighborhood, or if a sex offender registers under a different name using a customer’s address. Monitoring identity and credit information is also another way to stay aware of sex offenders using one’s personal credentials. Do you feel that current sex offender tracking is working? Are there other tools or systems states should be using to track them? Visit our website for more information on identity protection products you can offer your customers.

Consumers want to hear about data breaches - Eighty five percent of respondents in a recent study say learning about the loss of their data is pertinent to them. However, when they do, 72 percent indicated that they are dissatisfied with the notification letters they receive. Companies need to take note of these findings because more than one-third of consumers who receive a notification letter contemplate ending their relationship with the company. Providing affected individuals with a membership in an identity protection product is extremely important since 58 percent of consumers consider identity protection to be favorable compensation after a breach. Learn five pitfalls to avoid in your notification letters and how Experian Data Breach Resolution can help. Source: Download the complete 2012 consumer study on data breach notification.

2011 was the 12th consecutive year that identity theft topped the list of FTC consumer complaints. Florida had the highest rate of complaints, followed by Georgia and California. Rank State Complaints per 100,000 population 1 Florida 179 2 Georgia 120 3 California 104 Learn how to detect and manage fraud activity while meeting regulatory requirements. Source: Consumer info.com infographic and FTC's Consumer Sentinel Network Data Book for January-December 2011.