Prepping for Post-Holiday Credit Trends and Behaviors

We are squarely in the holiday shopping season. From the flurry of promotional emails to the endless shopping lists, there are many to-dos and even more opportunities for financial institutions at this time of year. The holiday shopping season is not just a peak period for consumer spending; it’s also a critical time for financial institutions to strategize, innovate, and drive value. According to the National Retail Federation, U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to approach $1 trillion in 2024, , and with an ever-evolving consumer behavior landscape, financial institutions need actionable strategies to stand out, secure loyalty, and drive growth during this period of heightened spending. Download our playbook: "How to prepare for the Holiday Shopping Season" Here’s how financial institutions can capitalize on the holiday shopping season, including key insights, actionable strategies, and data-backed trends. 1. Understand the holiday shopping landscape Key stats to consider: U.S. consumers spent $210 billion online during the 2022 holiday season, according to Adobe Analytics, marking a 3.5% increase from 2021. Experian data reveals that 31% of all holiday purchases in 2022 occurred in October, highlighting the extended shopping season. Cyber Week accounted for just 8% of total holiday spending, according to Experian’s Holiday Spending Trends and Insights Report, emphasizing the importance of a broad, season-long strategy. What this means for financial institutions: Timing is crucial. Your campaigns are already underway if you get an early start, and it’s critical to sustain them through December. Focus beyond Cyber Week. Develop long-term engagement strategies to capture spending throughout the season. 2. Leverage Gen Z’s growing spending power With an estimated $360 billion in disposable income, according to Bloomberg, Gen Z is a powerful force in the holiday market​. This generation values personalized, seamless experiences and is highly active online. Strategies to capture Gen Z: Offer digital-first solutions that enhance the holiday shopping journey, such as interactive portals or AI-powered customer support. Provide loyalty incentives tailored to this demographic, like cash-back rewards or exclusive access to services. Learn more about Gen Z in our State of Gen Z Report. To learn more about all generations' projected consumer spending, read new insights from Experian here, including 45% of Gen X and 52% of Boomers expect their spending to remain consistent with last year. 3. Optimize pre-holiday strategies Portfolio Review: Assess consumer behavior trends and adjust risk models to align with changing economic conditions. Identify opportunities to engage dormant accounts or offer tailored credit lines to existing customers. Actionable tactics: Expand offerings. Position your products and services with promotional campaigns targeting high-value segments. Personalize experiences. Use advanced analytics to segment clients and craft offers that resonate with their holiday needs or anticipate their possible post-holiday needs. 4. Ensure top-of-mind awareness During the holiday shopping season, competition to be the “top of wallet” is fierce. Experian’s data shows that 58% of high spenders shop evenly across the season, while 31% of average spenders do most of their shopping in December​. Strategies for success: Early engagement: Launch educational campaigns to empower credit education and identity protection during this period of increased transactions. Loyalty programs: Offer incentives, such as discounts or rewards, that encourage repeat engagement during the season. Omnichannel presence: Utilize digital, email, and event marketing to maintain visibility across platforms. 5. Combat fraud with multi-layered strategies The holiday shopping season sees an increase in fraud, with card testing being the number one attack vector in the U.S. according to Experian’s 2024 Identity and Fraud Study. Fraudulent activity such as identity theft and synthetic IDs can also escalate​. Fight tomorrow’s fraud today: Identity verification: Use advanced fraud detection tools, like Experian’s Ascend Fraud Sandbox, to validate accounts in real-time. Monitor dormant accounts: Watch these accounts with caution and assess for potential fraud risk. Strengthen cybersecurity: Implement multi-layered strategies, including behavioral analytics and artificial intelligence (AI), to reduce vulnerabilities. 6. Post-holiday follow-up: retain and manage risk Once the holiday rush is over, the focus shifts to managing potential payment stress and fostering long-term relationships. Post-holiday strategies: Debt monitoring: Keep an eye on debt-to-income and debt-to-limit ratios to identify clients at risk of defaulting. Customer support: Offer tailored assistance programs for clients showing signs of financial stress, preserving goodwill and loyalty. Fraud checks: Watch for first-party fraud and unusual return patterns, which can spike in January. 7. Anticipate consumer trends in the New Year The aftermath of the holidays often reveals deeper insights into consumer health: Rising credit balances: January often sees an uptick in outstanding balances, highlighting the need for proactive credit management. Shifts in spending behavior: According to McKinsey, consumers are increasingly cautious post-holiday, favoring savings and value-based spending. What this means for financial institutions: Align with clients’ needs for financial flexibility. The holiday shopping season is a time that demands precise planning and execution. Financial institutions can maximize their impact during this critical period by starting early, leveraging advanced analytics, and maintaining a strong focus on fraud prevention. And remember, success in the holiday season extends beyond December. Building strong relationships and managing risk ensures a smooth transition into the new year, setting the stage for continued growth. Ready to optimize your strategy? Contact us for tailored recommendations during the holiday season and beyond. Download the Holiday Shopping Season Playbook

Automate your credit limit management process to better serve your customers and quickly respond to the volatile market.

If you’re a manager at a business that lends to consumers or otherwise extends credit, you certainly are aware that 10-15% of your current customers and prospective future customers are among the approximately 27 million consumers who are now – or will soon be -- fitting another bill into their monthly budgets. Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, the government issued a pause on federal student loan payments and interest. Now that the payment pause has expired, millions of Americans face a new bill averaging more than $200. Will they pay you first? If this is your concern, you aren’t alone: Experian recently held a webinar that discussed how the end of the student loan pause might affect businesses. When we surveyed the webinar attendees,  nearly 3 out of 4 responses included Risk Management as a main concerns now. Another top concern is about credit scores. Lenders and investors use credit scores – bureau scores such FICO® or VantageScore® credit score or custom credit scores proprietary to their institution – to predict credit default risk. The risk managers at those companies want to know to what extent they can continue to rely on those scores as Federal student loan payments come due and consumers experience payment shock. I’ve analyzed a large and statistically meaningful sample (10% of the US consumer population in Experian’s Ascend Sandbox) to shed some light on that question. As background information, the average consumer with student loans had lower scores before the pandemic than the average of the general population. One of my Experian colleagues has explored some of the reasons at https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/research/average-student-loan-payments). Here are some of the things we can learn from comparing the credit data of the two groups of people. I looked at a period from 2019 and from 2023 to see how things have changed: Average credit scores increased during the pandemic, continuing a long-term trend during which more Americans have been willing and able to meet all their obligations. During the COVID Public Health Emergency, consumers with student loans brought up their scores by an average of 25 points; that was 7 points more than consumers without student loans. Another way to look at it: in 2019, consumers with student loans had credit scores 23 points lower than consumers without. By 2023, that difference had shrunk to 16 points. Experian research shows that there will be little immediate impact on credit scores when the new bills come due. Time will tell whether these increased credit scores accurately reflect a reduction in the risk that consumers will default on other bills such as auto loans or bankcards soon, even as some people fit student loan bills into their budgets. It is well-known that many people saved money during the public health emergency. Since then, the personal savings rate has fallen from a pandemic high of 32% to levels between 3% and 5% this year – lower than at any point since the 2009 recession. In an October 2023 Experian survey, only 36% of borrowers said they either set aside funds or they planned using other financial strategies specifically for the resumption of their student loan payments. Additional findings from that study can be found here. Furthermore, there are changes in the way your customers have used their credit cards over the last four years:   Consumers’ credit card balances have increased over the last four years. Consumers with student loans have balances that are on average $282 (4%) more now than in 2019. That is a significantly smaller increase than for consumers without student loans, whose total credit card debt increased by an average of $1,932 (26%). Although their balances increased, the ratio of consumers’ total revolving debt balances to their credit limits (utilization) changed by less than 1% for both consumers with student loans and consumers without. In 2019, the utilization ratio was 9.8 percentage points lower for consumers with student loans than consumers without. Four years later, the difference is nearly the same (9.6 points). We can conclude that many student loan borrowers have been very responsible with credit during the Public Health Emergency. They may have been more mindful of their credit situation, and some may have planned for the day when their student loan payments will be due. As the student loan pause come to an end, there are a few things that lenders and other businesses should be doing to be ready: Even if you are not a student loan lender, it is important to stay on top of the rapidly evolving student loan environment. It affects many of your customers, and your business with them needs to adapt. Anticipate that fraudsters and abusers of credit will be creative now: periods of change create opportunities for them and you should be one step ahead. Build optimized strategies in marketing, account opening, and servicing. Consider using machine learning to make more accurate predictions. Those strategies should reflect trends in payments, balances, and utilization; older credit scores look at a single point in time. Continually refresh data about your customers—including their credit scores and important attributes related to payments, balances, and utilization patterns. Look for alternative data that will give you a leg up on the competition. In the coming weeks and months, Experian’s data scientists will monitor measures of performance of the scores and attributes that you depend on in your data-driven strategies — particularly focusing on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistics that will show changes in the predictive power of each score and attribute. (If you are a data-driven business, your data science team or a trusted partner should be doing the same thing with a more specific look at your customer base and business strategies.) In future reports and blog posts, we’ll shed light on the impact student loans are having on your customers and on your business. In the meantime, for more information about how to use data and advanced analytics to grow while controlling costs and risks, all while staying in compliance and providing a good customer experience, visit our website.