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Q4 2020 Aftermarket Trends: Full-Sized Pickups Remain at Top, While Sweet Spot Grows

Published: March 31, 2021 by Guest Contributor

The automotive industry have been working to keep tabs on the changes that have occurred over the past year; changes that demonstrated we are in a totally different landscape than before. Understandably, there is a lot of focus on new registrations, loan amounts and finance trends. But there is also a need to dig into what vehicles are currently on the road, and what those trends mean for the aftermarket.

According to Experian’s Q4 2020 Market Trends Review, there was a total of 281.4 million vehicles on the road in Q4 2020, up from 279.6 million the previous year.

And while all vehicles on the road could potentially need service, the aftermarket has a special focus; vehicles that fall within the aftermarket “sweet spot,” those that are in the six-to-12-years old range and may need maintenance in the coming months or years.

In Q4 2020, 86.5 million vehicles, or just over 30% of the vehicles in operation, fell within the sweet spot. And for aftermarket professionals, that’s a significant number of vehicles that could require servicing. But in order to fully understand the opportunity, you need to know which vehicles are currently on the road. For example, full-sized pickups are the largest segment of vehicles in operation but the third largest segment of vehicles in the sweet spot (14.9%). Mid-range cars (23.9%) claim the top spot for sweet spot vehicles, followed by CUVs (21.5%) second, small cars (13.2%) fourth and SUVs (10.1%) fifth. Differentiating between the current market and the sweet spot is crucial for aftermarket businesses to have a clearer, and more accurate, idea of what future service and maintenance needs may be.

While there is opportunity in those vehicles presently within the sweet spot, it’s equally important for aftermarket professionals to prepare for the future. The next several years will bring even more vehicles into range. As it stands, 2016-2019 model year vehicles each have over 16 million vehicles poised to enter the sweet spot in the future, making up an average of 64 million pre-sweet spot vehicles.

COVID-19 deeply affected the automotive industry over the past year, however the industry has made an impressive recovery. We’re continuing to navigate a different environment than prior to the pandemic. Aftermarket businesses and dealer service centers can navigate this new landscape by leveraging data in order to better anticipate the needs of consumers, and drive business growth in the coming years.

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Electric vehicles (EVs) are the topic of conversation in the automotive industry, but we’re continuing to see another fuel type pick up speed. With consumer demand shifting and drivers exploring more fuel-efficient options, the automotive market is leaning back into hybrids. In fact, new retail hybrid registrations grew to 11.5% through Q3 2024, from 9.5% through Q3 2023, according to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024. Meanwhile, EVs increased from 7.7% to 8.2% year-over-year and gasoline vehicles declined to 70.4% this year, from 72.7% last year. Despite EVs gaining notable attention over recent years, some consumers may be factoring in the benefits of opting for a hybrid, such as the convenience of driving a longer distance without facing challenges as charging stations remain limited. As more manufacturers adapt to consumer needs and roll out additional vehicles, data shows 9.1% of 2024 model year vehicles in operation were attributed to hybrids, while 6.2% of 2024 model years were EVs through Q3 2024. Having more models enter the market has shifted the hybrid and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) market share, with the Toyota Camry making up 12.5% of the market share this quarter, a notable increase from 2.4% last year. On the other hand, the Jeep Wrangler 4xe went from having 4.5% of market share last year to 2.4% through Q3 2024. With many consumers continuing to have some concerns around EVs such as range anxiety and charging times, they’re seeking a more practical solution for their daily driving needs. The balance of fuel options provides more convenience—making hybrids an appealing choice for those wanting an EV alternative. It’s important for manufacturers to stay ahead of the competitive market as it’s constantly evolving. Leveraging the most current data can provide solutions that address both feasibility and consumer preference. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2024 presentation on demand.

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Electric vehicle (EV) registrations are re-gaining momentum as a wave of more affordable models hit the market, pushing more consumers than ever to make the transition. According to Experian’s State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Q3 2024, EVs made up 10.1% of new vehicle financing this quarter, increasing more than 30% from last year. Furthermore, 45% of EV consumers leased their vehicle in Q3 2024—resulting in EVs accounting for 17.3% of all new vehicle leasing. Of the top five transacted EV models this quarter, Tesla accounted for three—with the Tesla Model Y leading at 31.8%, followed by the Tesla Model 3 (14.3%) and Tesla Cybertruck (4.9%). Rounding out the top five were the Ford Mustang Mach-E (3.9%) and Hyundai IONIQ 5 (3.7%). Interestingly, data in the third quarter of 2024 found that consumers’ financing decisions vary based on the EV model they’re looking at. For example, 76.5% of consumers purchased the Tesla Model Y with a loan and 13.1% opted for a lease; on the other hand, only 8.5% of consumers bought the Hyundai IONIQ 5 with a loan and 78.7% chose to lease. Despite the rising interest in leasing as more incentives and rebate programs roll out, some consumers still prefer to purchase their EV with a loan. Understanding financing patterns based on different models is key for professionals as they cater to the diverse preferences and determine the long-term viability of certain EVs and their potential for leasing renewals. Snapshot of the overall vehicle finance market As the finance market continues to stabilize, it’s notable that the average interest rate for a new vehicle fell year-over-year, going from 7.1% to 6.6%, respectively. However, average new vehicle loan amounts increased $736 from last year, reaching $41,068 in Q3 2024, and average monthly payments went from $732 to $737 in the same time frame. On the used side, average interest rates saw a slight uptick to 11.7% in Q3 2024, from 11.6% last year. Meanwhile, the average loan amount dropped from $1,195 over the last year to $26,091 this quarter and the average monthly payment declined from $538 to $520 year-over-year. With the overall market shifting and EVs re-sparking interest, automotive professionals should leverage how consumers are purchasing their vehicles based on average payments and the fuel type as more incentives are being offered. Monitoring these insights can unlock opportunities for tailored financing solutions that meet the needs of consumers as preferences continue to evolve. To learn more about automotive finance trends, view the full State of the Automotive Finance Market: Q3 2024 presentation on demand.

Published: December 5, 2024 by Melinda Zabritski

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