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Strategies for Responding to the Recent Economic Downturn: Risk & Operations

Published: April 6, 2020 by Guest Contributor

Experian Fintech Fraud Risk StrategiesThis is the second of a three part series of blog posts highlighting key focus areas for your response to the COVID-19 health crisis: Risk, Operations, Consumer Behavior, and Reporting and Compliance. For more information and the latest resources, please visitLook Ahead 2020, Experian’s COVID-19 resource center with the latest news and tools for our business partners as well as links to consumer resources and a risk simulator. To read the introductory post, click here.

Strategic Focus on Risk

The last recession spurred an industry-wide systemic focus on stressed scenario forecasting. Now’s the time to evaluate the medium- to long-term impacts of the downturn response on portfolio risk measurement. The impact will be wide ranging, requiring recalibration of scorecards and underwriting processes and challenging assumptions related to fees, net interest income, losses, expenses and liquidity. There are critical inputs to understand portfolio monitoring and benchmarking by account types and segments.

Higher unemployment across the country is likely. You need a thorough response to successfully navigate the emerging risks. Expanding credit line management efforts for existing accounts is critical. Proactively responding to the needs of your customers will demand a wide range of data and analytics and more frequent and active processes to take action. Current approaches and tools with increased automation may need to be reevaluated. When sudden economic shocks occur, statistical models may still rank-order effectively, while the odds-to-score relationships deteriorate. This is the time to take full advantage of explainable machine learning techniques to quickly calibrate or rebuild scorecards with refreshed data (traditional and alternative) and continue the learning cycle.

As your risk management tools are evaluated and refreshed, there are many opportunities to target your servicing strategies where they can produce results. This may take the form of identifying segments exhibiting financial stress that can benefit from deferred payments, loan consolidation or refinancing. It might also involve more typical risk mitigation strategies, such as credit line reduction. There are several scenarios that may emerge over the next nine to 12 months that can offer opportunities to deepen relationships with your customers while managing long-term risk exposure.

Optimizing Business Operations

One of the most significant impacts to your business is the increase in transaction volumes as a result of the economic shock. We expect material increases in collections, refinancing and hardship programs. These increases are arriving at a time when many businesses have streamlined their teams in concert with periods of low delinquency and credit losses. Additional strain from call center shutdowns and limited staffing can easily overwhelm operations and cause business continuity plans to breakdown.

More than ever, the use of digital channels and self-servicing technology are no longer nice-to-haves. Customers expect online access, and efficiency demands automation, including virtual assistants. As more volume migrates to these channels, it’s critical to have the right customer experience and fraud risk controls deployed through flexible, cloud-based systems.

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Fake IDs have been around for decades, but today’s fraudsters aren’t just printing counterfeit driver’s licenses — they’re using artificial intelligence (AI) to create synthetic identities. These AI fake IDs bypass traditional security checks, making it harder for businesses to distinguish real customers from fraudsters. To stay ahead, organizations need to rethink their fraud prevention solutions and invest in advanced tools to stop bad actors before they gain access. The growing threat of AI Fake IDs   AI-generated IDs aren’t just a problem for bars and nightclubs; they’re a serious risk across industries. Fraudsters use AI to generate high-quality fake government-issued IDs, complete with real-looking holograms and barcodes. These fake IDs can be used to commit financial fraud, apply for loans or even launder money. Emerging services like OnlyFake are making AI-generated fake IDs accessible. For $15, users can generate realistic government-issued IDs that can bypass identity verification checks, including Know Your Customer (KYC) processes on major cryptocurrency exchanges.1 Who’s at risk? AI-driven identity fraud is a growing problem for: Financial services – Fraudsters use AI-generated IDs to open bank accounts, apply for loans and commit credit card fraud. Without strong identity verification and fraud detection, banks may unknowingly approve fraudulent applications. E-commerce and retail – Fake accounts enable fraudsters to make unauthorized purchases, exploit return policies and commit chargeback fraud. Businesses relying on outdated identity verification methods are especially vulnerable. Healthcare and insurance – Fraudsters use fake identities to access medical services, prescription drugs or insurance benefits, creating both financial and compliance risks. The rise of synthetic ID fraud Fraudsters don’t just stop at creating fake IDs — they take it a step further by combining real and fake information to create entirely new identities. This is known as synthetic ID fraud, a rapidly growing threat in the digital economy. Unlike traditional identity theft, where a criminal steals an existing person’s information, synthetic identity fraud involves fabricating an identity that has no real-world counterpart. This makes detection more difficult, as there’s no individual to report fraudulent activity. Without strong synthetic fraud detection measures in place, businesses may unknowingly approve loans, credit cards or accounts for these fake identities. The deepfake threat AI-powered fraud isn’t limited to generating fake physical IDs. Fraudsters are also using deepfake technology to impersonate real people. With advanced AI, they can create hyper-realistic photos, videos and voice recordings to bypass facial recognition and biometric verification. For businesses relying on ID document scans and video verification, this can be a serious problem. Fraudsters can: Use AI-generated faces to create entirely fake identities that appear legitimate Manipulate real customer videos to pass live identity checks Clone voices to trick call centers and voice authentication systems As deepfake technology improves, businesses need fraud prevention solutions that go beyond traditional ID verification. AI-powered synthetic fraud detection can analyze biometric inconsistencies, detect signs of image manipulation and flag suspicious behavior. How businesses can combat AI fake ID fraud Stopping AI-powered fraud requires more than just traditional ID checks. Businesses need to upgrade their fraud defenses with identity solutions that use multidimensional data, advanced analytics and machine learning to verify identities in real time. Here’s how: Leverage AI-powered fraud detection – The same AI capabilities that fraudsters use can also be used against them. Identity verification systems powered by machine learning can detect anomalies in ID documents, biometrics and user behavior. Implement robust KYC solutions – KYC protocols help businesses verify customer identities more accurately. Enhanced KYC solutions use multi-layered authentication methods to detect fraudulent applications before they’re approved. Adopt real-time fraud prevention solutions – Businesses should invest in fraud prevention solutions that analyze transaction patterns and device intelligence to flag suspicious activity. Strengthen synthetic identity fraud detection – Detecting synthetic identities requires a combination of behavioral analytics, document verification and cross-industry data matching. Advanced synthetic fraud detection tools can help businesses identify and block synthetic identities. Stay ahead of AI fraudsters AI-generated fake IDs and synthetic identities are evolving, but businesses don’t have to be caught off guard. By investing in identity solutions that leverage AI-driven fraud detection, businesses can protect themselves from costly fraud schemes while ensuring a seamless experience for legitimate customers. At Experian, we combine cutting-edge fraud prevention, KYC and authentication solutions to help businesses detect and prevent AI-generated fake ID and synthetic ID fraud before they cause damage. Our advanced analytics, machine learning models and real-time data insights provide the intelligence businesses need to outsmart fraudsters. Learn more *This article includes content created by an AI language model and is intended to provide general information. 1 https://www.404media.co/inside-the-underground-site-where-ai-neural-networks-churns-out-fake-ids-onlyfake/

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