While the automotive industry initially took a hit at the onset of COVID-19, things are beginning to rebound. New vehicle registrations are still down compared to 2019, however, the year-over-year comparisons by month are starting to level out. And, while most of the attention has been paid to new registration figures, we can’t lose sight of the vehicles on the road. Some consumers acted to take advantage of automaker incentives and low interest rates, and others purchased due to newfound needs, but the vast majority have stuck with their current vehicle. That means, despite some bumps over the past few months, opportunity for the aftermarket and dealer service departments to thrive by keeping these vehicles on the road still exists. It starts with understanding what’s on the road. Insight into these vehicles will better position aftermarket suppliers and repairs shops to perform scheduled maintenance and address the needs of drivers. According to Experian’s Q2 2020 Market Trends Review, there were 280.6 million vehicles in operation, up from 278.1 million a year ago. Of those vehicles on the road, light-duty trucks accounted for 56.5%, and passenger cars made up the remaining 43.5%. So, there’s little surprise that the top three segments on the road were full-sized pick-ups (16%), CUVs (10%) and mid-range cars (9.9%). And if we break it down even further, the top three brands were Ford (15.5%), Chevrolet (14.3%) and Toyota (12.1%). But we understand that not all 280.6 million vehicles will need aftermarket parts or service; it’s important for the industry to keep a close eye on the aftermarket “sweet spot”—those vehicles that are six- to 12-years old. Identifying these vehicles and anticipating their maintenance needs will help aftermarket suppliers navigate the recovery. In Q2 2020, 31.2% (87.6 million) of vehicles in operation fell within the “sweet spot”—with a mix nearly 46% domestic and 54% import brands. And while the opportunity today is significant, we expect the “sweet spot” to continue to grow for at least the next four years. To make the most of the opportunity, aftermarket suppliers need to understand where these vehicles are located, what types of vehicles fall within the sweet spot and the most common parts that are used. COVID-19 has shifted the industry for all parties involved. Some consumers may opt to hold onto their vehicles a little bit longer rather than purchase a vehicle; only time will tell. In any event, the more aftermarket suppliers and repair shops understand about the vehicles on the road, the better positioned they will be to address the needs of consumers and grow business. To view Experian’s full Q2 2020 Market Trends Review, click here.
When it comes to new vehicle registration, there is one segment that stands out from the pack: crossover vehicles. According to Experian’s Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis, over the last four years, crossovers (CUVs) have spiked in popularity, representing about a third of new vehicle registrations in 2014 (34.1 percent), but growing to nearly half the new vehicle market in 2018 (47.6 percent). In fact, the large growth in CUVs isn’t limited to just the last four years – there was a large volume of growth year-over-year compared to 2017; the share has grown nearly 4 percent. Sedans and hatchbacks, meanwhile, have seen their share decrease year-over-year. The charts below detail this change in market, based on Experian’s latest 2018 quarterly findings. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) What’s driving this growth? Across the board, the number of light-duty vehicles on the road continues to increase, up to 275.3 million in the U.S. market, at the end of 2018, compared to 271.4 million a year prior. The growth in CUVs isn’t entirely unprecedented, as it’s been going on for a number of years. CUVs continue to grow in popularity for a variety of reasons including: Greater visibility, as the driver sits higher than in a sedan/coupe Larger storage capacities for passengers or cargo Number of varieties available, such as size, engines, and manufactures Higher fuel efficiency than a full-size SUV or minivan Currently, there are over 130 different CUV/SUV Make/Model combos offered, and of those, the different engines, options, etc. drive that volume even higher. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) Potential for growth Currently, there are only two CUVs among the top vehicles in the aftermarket “sweet spot.” Vehicles in the sweet spot are 6 to 12 model years old, and typically aged out of general OEM warranties for any repairs. These vehicles likely require more part replacement services, which may be performed by aftermarket service shops using parts from aftermarket part manufacturers. According to Experian data, the sweet spot has stopped falling and has settled for now. But, there is expected growth of the number of vehicles that fall into the sweet spot over the coming years. One of the segments where the aftermarket industry can begin to focus on will be CUVs. Source: Experian Automotive VIO as of December 31, 2018 (light duty registered vehicles only) The aftermarket can use this data to make more informed product decisions, specifically, around the high volume of CUVs expected to come into the sweet spot. With the number of vehicle options available on the market today, CUVs will continue to stand out as a segment to watch within the auto industry. There’s a greater story beyond the numbers and understanding how to leverage the data at hand can provide the industry with a greater understanding of CUVs and its potential for even greater growth. To learn more about CUVs/SUVs and total vehicles in operation, view the full Q4 2018 Automotive Market Trends Analysis.