Tag: market trends

While many industry pundits are assessing how macroeconomic changes may impact the future of the automotive market, recent data suggests consumers tend to stick to specific fuel types. According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2024, over the last 12 months, 77.5% of electric vehicle (EV) owners replaced their EV with another one, with 15.6% returning to gas-powered vehicles. Meanwhile, 82.2% of gas vehicle owners replaced it with the same fuel type, while only 4.7% made the switch to electric. It’s important for professionals to recognize that most consumers tend to replace their vehicles with the same fuel type. Additionally, knowing who is making these purchases and the types of vehicles being registered allows better anticipation for consumer needs and ultimately enhances the buying experience while fostering consumer loyalty. Breaking down fuel types by generation Through Q4 2024, Baby Boomers predominantly registered new gasoline vehicles, accounting for 74.7% of their choices, while 15.9% opted for hybrids and 6.6% chose EVs. Millennials showed a similar trend, with 69.2% registering gas vehicles, followed by 15.1% selecting hybrids and 12.5% choosing EVs. Gen Z also favored gasoline vehicles at 74.0%, with hybrids making up 14.3% and EVs at 9.1% of their registrations. Although gasoline vehicles account for the majority of new registrations, EVs and hybrids are steadily gaining ground, particularly among the younger generations who are drawn to advanced features that align with their preferences. This will likely play a role in shaping the future of vehicle registrations as more gas alternative models hit the market and consumers make the switch. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2024 presentation on demand.

According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q1 2024, hybrids accounted for 11.8% of new vehicle registrations, an increase from 8.8% last year.

From consumers seeking versatility and additional cargo space to more models becoming available—a discernible trend the automotive industry has seen in recent years is the shift towards utility vehicles such as SUVs and crossover utility vehicles (CUVs). In fact, Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2023 found that utility vehicles were a significant driver in new vehicle registrations, coming in at 57.3%, up from 56.2% through Q4 2022. Meanwhile, pickup trucks declined from 18.5% last year to 17.2% this quarter and sedans went from 17.1% to 16.5% in the same time frame. Optimizing vehicle maintenance post-manufacturer warranty Despite utility vehicles making up the majority of new vehicle registrations through Q4 2023, passenger vehicles (85.1%) and light trucks (82.7%) had the most vehicles that were outside of the general manufacturer warranty this quarter—mostly due to a high volume of registrations in previous years. By comparison, 67.1% of all utility vehicles were outside the general manufacturer warranty. Understanding the current status of these vehicles enables aftermarket professionals to tailor their service recommendations accordingly. Furthermore, it will be important to monitor this trend over the next few years as the vehicles that are currently under manufacturer warranty will likely need maintenance after it expires. !function(e,n,i,s){var d="InfogramEmbeds";var o=e.getElementsByTagName(n)[0];if(window[d]&&window[d].initialized)window[d].process&&window[d].process();else if(!e.getElementById(i)){var r=e.createElement(n);r.async=1,r.id=i,r.src=s,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,"script","infogram-async","https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js"); Vehicle registrations and aftermarket sweet spot When looking at overall registration trends, new vehicles increased 12.5% from last year—reaching 15.3 million through Q4 2023 and used vehicles declined 1.5% year-over-year to 38.2 million this quarter. While monitoring vehicle registration trends helps aftermarket professionals properly assist consumers now and in the future, identifying and understanding the aftermarket “sweet spot” allows them to stay ahead of the curve and adapt to changes as the market continues to evolve. Vehicles in the sweet spot are generally between six- to 12-model-years-old and have aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs. Through Q4 2023, 35.5% of all vehicles in operation landed in the sweet spot, marking a 3.6% year-over-year increase. Though, the aftermarket sweet spot volume is expected to hit its peak in the next few months at nearly 116 million vehicles—considering the record high was 104 million through 2011 and the sweet spot volume reached 102.4 million through Q4 2023. As aftermarket professionals look for ways to reach the right audience, leveraging registration data and the types of vehicles entering the market enables them to adjust their marketing strategies accordingly and plan their services effectively. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q4 2023 presentation on demand.

As vehicle inventory continues to restore post-pandemic, data through the third quarter of 2023 showed new vehicle registrations are on the rise again—a positive sign that the market is leveling out. According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2023, new vehicle registrations increased 12.7% year-over-year, reaching 11.5 million. On the used side, registrations declined to 29.3 million through Q3 2023, a 2% decrease from 29.9 million last year. Digging a bit deeper, CUVs/SUVs were the most registered new vehicle segment at 56.9%, up from 56.2% compared to last year. Pickup trucks declined from 18.6% to 17.4% year-over-year and sedans went from 17.1% to 16.8% in the same time frame. While knowing what types of vehicles consumers are interested in is beneficial for automotive professionals, breaking down the most sought-after models will paint a fuller picture as they assist shoppers in finding a vehicle that fits their needs. For instance, despite new pickup truck registrations declining year-over-year, the Ford F-150 made up the highest share of new vehicle registrations through Q3 2023—reaching 3%. The Tesla Model Y and Toyota RAV4 were not far behind, both coming in at 2.5% this quarter. They were followed by the Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and Honda CR-V tying at 2.3%. ICE vehicles continue to grow Taking a deeper dive into the fuel type share, ICE vehicles continue to grow year-over-year, even with electric vehicles (EVs) making headway into the market. Experian Automotive’s Vehicles in Operation (VIO) data as of Q3 2023 shows ICE vehicle registrations grew to 265.7 million, up from 264.5 million last year, while hybrid vehicles increased to 8.0 million, from 6.9 million in the same time frame. Meanwhile, EVs went from 2.0 million last year to 3.0 million this year and diesel saw a slight uptick from 9.6 million to 9.9 million in the same period. Leveraging different data points and staying up to date on vehicle registration trends can better prepare professionals as the market remains ever-changing and consumer preference continues to shift. To learn more about vehicle market trends, view the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q3 2023 presentation on demand.

The only thing constant is change. And as 2022 wraps up and businesses and consumers look toward 2023, the need for insights and data is at an all-time high to help forge the path ahead. With recent slowing economic growth, and uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical climates, leading organizations are turning to credit, market, and economic trends, to help shape and inform future strategies. The challenge? With so many sources of information, it can be overwhelming to determine which information is relevant.  Experian Edge, our new thought leadership hub, compiles proprietary Experian data, and economic, credit and market trends in a single, easy-to-consume place. Covering the automotive, financial services, healthcare, retail and small business sectors, Experian Edge helps businesses navigate tomorrow with today’s insights.   Featured Publication: 2022 Experian Edge Chartbook  The data stories told during 2022 - particularly credit and economic trends - run the full gamut. From economic growth and the labor market, to consumer health and inflation, there is no shortage of insights to glean. The inaugural 2022 Experian Edge Chartbook compiles those key insights giving a comprehensive look at economic and credit trends and what they could mean for 2023. Download 2022 Experian Edge Chartbook Want more insights? Examples of what else you’ll find on Experian Edge include:  State of the Automotive Finance Market Report: Exclusive quarterly report on the latest trends and analysis of the U.S. automotive finance market. State of Alternative Credit Data Report: A deep dive into the uses of alternative data in consumer and small business lending.  State of Claims: 200 executive healthcare professionals shed light on the current claims environment.  Holiday Retail Guide 2022: Learn what types of behaviors you can expect to see from consumers this holiday shopping season. Beyond the Trends Report: Quarterly insights and commentary on economic conditions and future small business performance. Visit and bookmark Experian Edge for the latest intel you need to propel your business forward.  Visit Experian Edge

New EV registrations have increased almost 60% since this time last year—and while gasoline vehicles continue to dominate the market, data shows new gasoline registration volumes are dropping year-over-year.

Whether a consumer has a brand-new or used vehicle, it’s inevitably going to need regular maintenance and require repairs. Fortunately for aftermarket professionals, the aftermarket “sweet spot” is continuously growing—a trend that should be watched closely. Vehicles in the sweet spot are typically between six- to 12-model-years-old and have aged out of general OEM manufacturer warranties for any repairs. Knowing the model year and type of vehicles that are in operation will be important for aftermarket professionals to determine what parts may be needed, and anticipate potential consumer needs. According to Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Report: Q1 2022, 35.8% of vehicles in operation (VIO) now fall within the aftermarket sweet spot, a 6.5% year-over-year increase. It is important to note that the aftermarket sweet spot max volume record of 104 million is expected to be broken over the next 12-18 months, considering the sweet spot volume was 100.3 million through Q1 2022 and the last time it exceeded that number was nine years ago. The increase will create more opportunities for aftermarket professionals as more vehicles will potentially need maintenance. Aftermarket “sweet spot” will continue to grow Right now, the aftermarket sweet spot consists of model years between 2011 and 2017. There were 10.5 million 2011 model year vehicles on the road through Q1 2022, this low volume will transition into the post-sweet spot next year. At the same time, there will be 16.5 million 2018 model year vehicles entering the sweet spot. Furthermore, an estimated 16.7 million vehicles in operation with a 2019 model year and almost 14.3 million vehicles in operation with a 2020 model year will be transitioning into the sweet spot in the next two years. When these model year vehicles enter the sweet spot, the current 12 million vehicles with a 2012 model year and an estimated 13.7 million 2013 model year vehicles will transition into the post-sweet spot, resulting in a notable increase. Watching this data closely will allow aftermarket professionals to continue assisting with maintenance and repairs for these vehicles that are currently on the road, as well as prepare for what’s to come to the aftermarket industry in approaching years. To learn more about other vehicle registration trends, watch the full Automotive Market Trends Report: Q1 2022 presentation on demand.

In Experian’s Automotive Market Trends Review: Q2 2021, we looked at the data to better understand EV and internal combustion engine registration trends.

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has facilitated an increase in information collection among consumers and organizations, creating a prosperous climate for cybercriminals. As businesses and customers adjust to the “new normal,” hackers are honing in on their targets and finding new, more sophisticated ways to access their sensitive data. As part of our recently launched Q&A perspective series, Michael Bruemmer, Experian’s Vice President of Data Breach Resolution and Consumer Protection, provided insight on emerging fraud schemes related to the COVID-19 vaccines and how increased use of digital home technologies could lead to an upsurge in identity theft and ransomware attacks. Check out what he had to say: Q: How did Experian determine the top data breach trends for 2021? MB: As part of our initiative to help organizations prevent data breaches and protect their information, we release an annual Data Breach Forecast. Prior to the launch of the report, we analyze market and consumer trends. We then come up with a list of potential predictions based off the current climate and opportunities for data breaches that may arise in the coming year. Closer to publication, we pick the top five ‘trends’ and craft our supporting rationale. Q: When it comes to data, what is the most immediate threat to organizations today? MB: Most data breaches that we service have a root cause in employee errors – and working remotely intensifies this issue. Often, it’s through negligence; clicking on a phishing link, reusing a common password for multiple accounts, not using two-factor authentication, etc. Organizations must continue to educate their employees to be more aware of the dangers of an internal breach and the steps they can take to prevent it. Q: How should an organization begin to put together a comprehensive threat and response review? MB: Organizations that excel in cybersecurity often are backed by executives that make comprehensive threats and response reviews a top corporate priority. When the rest of the organization sees higher-ups emphasizing the importance of fraud prevention, it’s easier to invest time and money in threat assessments and data breach preparedness. Q: What fraud schemes should consumers be looking out for? MB: The two top fraud schemes that consumers should be wary of are scams related to the COVID-19 vaccine rollout and home devices being held for ransom. Fraudsters have been leveraging social media to spread harmful false rumors and misinformation about the vaccines, their effectiveness and the distribution process. These mistruths can bring harm to supply chains and delay government response efforts. And while ransomware attacks aren’t new, they are getting smarter and easier with people working, going to school and hosting gatherings entirely on their connected devices. With control over home devices, doors, windows, and security systems, cybercriminals have the potential to hold an entire house hostage in exchange for money or information. For more insight on how to safeguard your organization and consumers from emerging fraud threats, watch our Experian Symposium Series event on-demand and download our 2021 Data Breach Industry Forecast. Watch now Access forecast About Our Expert: Michael Bruemmer, Experian VP of Data Breach Resolution and Consumer Protection, North America Michael manages Experian’s dedicated Data Breach Resolution and Consumer Protection group, which aims to help businesses better prepare for a data breach and mitigate associated consumer risks following breach incidents. With over 25 years in the industry, he has guided organizations of all sizes and sectors through pre-breach response planning and delivery.

Last year is a testament to how quickly trends can shift, and entire industries can be turned upside down.

Experian Automotive Market Insights includes an in-depth analysis of auction volume across the United States.

In late September, California announced a new requirement for the sale of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035. While that’s still 15 years away, the executive order created quite a buzz in the automotive industry, reigniting conversations about electric vehicles (EVs) and the current market penetration of the most common zero-emission vehicles. With that in mind, we wanted to take a closer look at the state of EVs—across the country and more specifically, in California—to better understand the EV market and how it’s grown over the past few years. As of Q2 2020, electric vehicles comprised just 0.312% of vehicles in operation (VIO). While EV market share seems small, there has been significant growth since Q2 2015, when they only held 0.0678% of the VIO market—meaning the growth of EVs has more than tripled (3.6x) in the last five years. But even still, other segments, such as CUVs have seen faster growth in the same time period (10% market share in Q2 2020 compared to 6.2% in Q2 2015). California sees faster EV adoption California has seen growth in EV adoption in the last decade, but it has grown exponentially in the last five years. EVs comprised 1.79% of new vehicle registrations 2015, and the percentage grew to 5.32% as of Q2 2020. Much of the growth occurred between 2017 and 2018, when market share jumped from 2.62% to 5.04% year-over-year, with the introduction of the more cost-effective Tesla Model 3. Even with that growth, California new vehicle purchases have a long way to grow to move up to 100% EV. With the popularity of the Model 3, it’s somewhat unsurprising, Tesla holds the lion’s share of the EV market in California, making up 61.9% of EVs on the road within VIO, and nationally at 64.8% share. That could potentially change down the road though. Over the next two years, numerous manufacturers have plans to introduce electric versions of popular models or introduce new EV models altogether. This not only creates competition but could also help continue to drive down vehicle cost, making EVs a more viable option for consumers. Examining costs and other factors Cost is one of the key considerations that industry experts have routinely brought up over the years as a barrier to EV adoption. While some say that maintenance and fuel are cheaper in the long run, purchasing an EV today is typically a more expensive option at the dealership. The average loan amount for an EV in California in 2019 was $40,964, compared to an average vehicle loan amount of $32,373. That said, as EV adoption has seen exponential growth in the last five years, the average price has reduced. The average loan amount for an EV in 2016 was $78,646, dropping more than $35,000 in just five years as the technology continued to mature and vehicle costs lowered. Additionally, tax incentives, particularly in California, have also helped reduce affordability concerns. Though today’s tax incentives may not be in place through 2035, California will likely need to evaluate if economic incentives are required along the way to achieving the zero-emission vehicle deadline. However, even as costs lower, there are additional challenges to be overcome. For instance, infrastructure continues to be a barrier to adoption. In a 2019 AAA study, concern over being able to find a place to charge is the top reason listed as to why respondents are unlikely to purchase an EV in the future. In addition, according to Statisa, in March 2020, the U.S. had almost 25,000 charging stations for plug-in electric vehicles, and approximately 78,500 charging outlets. Of those charging stations, nearly 30% are in California. But with continued growth of EV sales, there will be a critical need for continued infrastructure nationwide—not just in California. In addition to these considerations, many impacts of the new mandate remain unknown. California will have to navigate increased electricity demand—especially during peak hours—and increases in battery scrappage, as EVs wear out. Gas stations will need to manage a loss of revenue, while changes in fuel taxes are likely, and vehicle technicians will require new training. If increased adoption of zero emission vehicles is California’s long-term goal, this could also impact the popularity of used vehicles, which could leave dealers looking for alternative locations to sell their gasoline-powered inventory. Looking toward the future of EVs Realistically, with 15 years until the mandate takes effect, the California mandate won’t have much of an immediate effect on the industry. But it does highlight key considerations for automakers and the aftermarket moving forward. To achieve better adoption rates, automakers need to understand the barriers to success and how they impact consumer behavior. An example of this is how California has seen higher EV adoption rates as the availability of plug-in stations has increased. Continuing to find ways to lower costs and focusing on savings over the lifetime of the vehicle is will help consumers see the value of an EV. At the end of the day, automakers play a large role in moving the country toward EV adoption, so having a clear understanding of the trends can help refine strategies as we move toward an electrified future.

While the automotive industry initially took a hit at the onset of COVID-19, things are beginning to rebound. New vehicle registrations are still down compared to 2019, however, the year-over-year comparisons by month are starting to level out. And, while most of the attention has been paid to new registration figures, we can’t lose sight of the vehicles on the road. Some consumers acted to take advantage of automaker incentives and low interest rates, and others purchased due to newfound needs, but the vast majority have stuck with their current vehicle. That means, despite some bumps over the past few months, opportunity for the aftermarket and dealer service departments to thrive by keeping these vehicles on the road still exists. It starts with understanding what’s on the road. Insight into these vehicles will better position aftermarket suppliers and repairs shops to perform scheduled maintenance and address the needs of drivers. According to Experian’s Q2 2020 Market Trends Review, there were 280.6 million vehicles in operation, up from 278.1 million a year ago. Of those vehicles on the road, light-duty trucks accounted for 56.5%, and passenger cars made up the remaining 43.5%. So, there’s little surprise that the top three segments on the road were full-sized pick-ups (16%), CUVs (10%) and mid-range cars (9.9%). And if we break it down even further, the top three brands were Ford (15.5%), Chevrolet (14.3%) and Toyota (12.1%). But we understand that not all 280.6 million vehicles will need aftermarket parts or service; it’s important for the industry to keep a close eye on the aftermarket “sweet spot”—those vehicles that are six- to 12-years old. Identifying these vehicles and anticipating their maintenance needs will help aftermarket suppliers navigate the recovery. In Q2 2020, 31.2% (87.6 million) of vehicles in operation fell within the “sweet spot”—with a mix nearly 46% domestic and 54% import brands. And while the opportunity today is significant, we expect the “sweet spot” to continue to grow for at least the next four years. To make the most of the opportunity, aftermarket suppliers need to understand where these vehicles are located, what types of vehicles fall within the sweet spot and the most common parts that are used. COVID-19 has shifted the industry for all parties involved. Some consumers may opt to hold onto their vehicles a little bit longer rather than purchase a vehicle; only time will tell. In any event, the more aftermarket suppliers and repair shops understand about the vehicles on the road, the better positioned they will be to address the needs of consumers and grow business. To view Experian’s full Q2 2020 Market Trends Review, click here.

Staying ahead of the trends and adjusting will support sales growth, while also supporting consumers as they begin to recover from the impact of COVID-19.

Experian recently released its Q1 2020 Market Trends report, which provides insights about the vehicles on the road and the most popular vehicle segments.