2014 was an eventful year: Republicans regained control of both the House and Senate in sweeping fashion, the European economy constricted dramatically, Russian economic sanctions brought the country to the brink of default, and China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy. And those are just a few of the year’s macro highlights.
Yet despite this tumultuous time, the United States continued to demonstrate positive economic trends. As we look ahead, precarious global events and international uncertainties continue to raise some alarms, but domestic economic fundamentals appear strong enough to withstand external shock. In general, the U.S. economic recovery is on track to evolve into a full-fledged expansion.
Business and Consumer Credit Conditions at Recovery Highs
The American economy closed the 2014 books on a very different note than it started. Tough conditions last January and February had analysts, business owners and consumers questioning the economic progress of late 2013. Fortunately – with the subsiding of last year’s unusually harsh winter weather – employment, revenue, consumer spending and credit conditions all rebounded exceptionally. These events were particularly positive for small businesses in America, as witnessed by the following trends.
Small business credit
After years of difficulty obtaining credit, the small business credit spigot is reopening – outstanding credit balances grew by nearly 5 percent and are up 1.9 percent from a year ago.
- In the third quarter, small business credit conditions improved significantly, according to the Experian/Moody’s Analytics Small Business Credit Index. Nearly 12 percent fewer businesses filed for bankruptcy, and the share of credit balances being paid late fell to 8.8 percent – the lowest level ever tracked.
- The net share of small businesses that plan on raising employee compensation over the next three to six months is at a recovery high, and Moody’s Analytics expects the United States to reach full employment by the end of 2016.
Consumer credit trends
Positive consumer spending and credit trends are therefore beginning to emerge; the national average VantageScore rose two points over 2013. Some consumer highlights:
- Bankcards on the rise: Overall, the nation’s credit scores are up and bankcard and retail card lending is growing, according to Experian’s State of Credit report. Specifically, the number of bankcards per consumer rose 4.2 percent from 2013, and the number of retail cards rose 6.7 percent, according to Experian.
- Consumer comfort zone for loans is back: Consumers are increasingly becoming comfortable taking out loans to purchase big-ticket items. Use of home-equity lines of credit grew amid a resurging housing market in 2014, and delinquency rates remained steady. New loan originations throughout the year totaled $120 billion—up 27 percent from the previous year. This growth trend is expected to continue through this spring and summer’s buying season.
- Auto loans and higher education benefit from recovery: Car and student loans are also seeing a rise. Open auto loan balances reached an all-time high, with the majority of loans/balances in the super prime credit range. And in an analysis of student loan trends since the 2008 recession up through 2014, Experian found that student loans increased by 84 percent, surpassing home equity loans/lines of credit, credit card and automotive debt.
Cross-Channel Marketing Remains Strong
With the explosion of smartphones and digital tablets, marketers are seizing opportunities to reach key audiences in new ways, further strengthening America’s economy. Last year, 80 percent of marketers planned to run cross-channel marketing campaigns, and more than half planned to integrate their marketing campaigns across four or more different channels, according to Experian Marketing Services’ Digital Marketer Report. This fuels the economy by increasing the likelihood that consumers will make a purchase, as marketers can tailor offers to consumers’ specific needs.
At the same time, it creates a strong need for data solutions to help marketers efficiently target their efforts. Ninety-three percent of companies have some sort of data-quality solution in place, Experian Data Quality found, but very few are calculating the return on this investment. Looking ahead, these businesses will need to calculate the return on their investments to document the economic value to their business – and we believe the outlook is strong for cross-channel marketing to continue to infuse energy into the American economy.
Credit Uncertainties: Improved Housing and Consumer Spending Critical
Many of 2014’s big uncertainties were resolved after the first few months of the year. Initial stagnation turned out to be the result of inclement weather, and the delay of the Affordable Care Act’s employer mandate for small businesses allowed companies more time to prepare for greater employee health costs. But domestic uncertainties remain.
Given their deep roots in the U.S. economy, consumer spending and the housing market will need to continue to pick up to successfully accelerate growth throughout 2015. Small businesses depend heavily on consumer spending to operate, and while household finances are trending at recovery highs amid stronger hiring and lower unemployment, compensation and hours worked actually fell last fall.
At the same time, the housing market recovery is still not broad-based, leaving the construction industry in flux and certain regions lagging in growth. In New England, the market has remained stagnant, and in Florida and Illinois, where the housing crash was disproportionately detrimental, key industries such as construction are among the worst in the country. Meanwhile, in the Mountain and Western regions, population and job growth in lucrative fields have driven a housing boom and healthy credit economy.
Future Outlook
Despite pockets of stagnation and global challenges, the U.S. economy is poised to see a full-fledged expansion in 2015. As the labor market tightens, employers will raise compensation, freeing up discretionary consumer spending that will prove critical to sustained economic growth.
All told, expect upward trends in the economy to continue as 2015 swings into high gear.
Lloyd Parker is Group President, Credit Services for Experian North America. He leads the sales and service teams for Experian’s Credit Services & Decision Analytics businesses.