2023 Experian Edge Economic Chartbook

In our Q1 Lending Conditions Chartbook, we break down the latest economic trends and dive deep into credit conditions across products and regions.

Insights include:

• The labor market appears on decent footing but there are signs of slowing.
• Credit growth remains subdued and is running below its pre-pandemic average as financial institutions maintain tight lending standards and interest rates remain elevated.
• Looking at origination activity, there has been a meaningful pickup among fintechs and in unsecured personal loans.

The escalating trade war and rising economic uncertainty are causing businesses and lenders to adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing investment and hiring. If this trend continues, the economy could face long-term risks, including reduced lending, weaker job growth, and increased vulnerability to unemployment spikes. Insights include:

• Business investment was already slowing before the trade war, and uncertainty is now at an all-time high.
• Banks may tighten lending further due to rising business delinquency and unrealized losses in securities portfolios.
• The labor market, while stable, is struggling with low hiring rates, making it harder to absorb job seekers.
• A prolonged decline in business investment could trigger higher unemployment if layoffs accelerate.

In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months​. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

As we step into 2025, all eyes remain on the trajectory of inflation, the resilience in consumer spending and continued affordability challenges in the housing market. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.