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North American economic strength is riding on the backs of the resilient U.S. Consumer. For the past two years, the fear of an imminent recession rang in the ears of economists and consumers alike, radiating declining confidence in growth and the ability to prolong spending behaviors consumers grew accustomed to during pandemic recovery. Those fears have been pushed aside as consumers beat holiday spending expectations, upending retailers' anxiety entering the season.

The Beyond the Trends Report: Winter 2023 dives into the challenges and opportunities facing small businesses in today’s shifting economy. As inflation strains consumer spending and savings dwindle, businesses must navigate rising costs and softening demand. Backed by Experian’s robust data, the report highlights key trends like increasing credit reliance, evolving consumer behaviors, and the Federal Reserve’s focus on cooling inflation. Small businesses can stay resilient by embracing strategies like market expansion, fraud prevention, and customer loyalty initiatives. With insights tailored to empower businesses, this report is your guide to thriving in a dynamic market.

Outstanding performance in the third quarter is a great headline focused on the resiliency of the American consumer. Business confidence and financials benefited from a consumer confidence boost as market conditions appeared to improve as inflation receded. Consumer spending remained elevated, supporting small business cashflow health, but a rising percentage of that consumer spend originated from leveraged consumer credit products. Creditors have been monitoring the rise in unsecured debt utilization and putting into action exposure limiting underwriting criteria.

Lenders are tightening underwriting criteria due to high delinquencies among consumers and small businesses amid inflation. People are revising their spending and investment plans. While technology companies thrive, sectors like logistics, Utilities, and Healthcare face challenges. Supply chain issues are easing, but reduced demand affects inventory orders, impacting trucking and logistics with lower tonnage and mileage. Consumers show resilience, bolstered by a strong job market, wage growth, and lower energy and food costs. However, dwindling savings and increased reliance on unsecured debt, along with the resumption of debt obligations like student loans, and ongoing inflation, put pressure on consumers. Recession fears are easing, but concerns for 2024 remain.