Welcome to the Experian Thought Leadership Hub

This week’s Commercial Pulse Report from Experian reveals critical shifts in the economy for small businesses. Inflation eased slightly to 2.8%, and the Small Business Index ticked up to 41.5—signs of stabilization. But rising financial fraud remains a major concern. Also:

🔒 70% increase in fraud since the pandemic

🧠 $40B in projected losses from AI-driven scams by 2027

📊 46% of SMB loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud

Lenders are responding with AI-powered analytics and cross-industry collaboration to stay ahead of these threats.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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Explore state-level and industry level data that banks, credit unions and fintechs can leverage to track the downturn and be correctly positioned for the recovery in this monthly report.

Even in an uncertain economy, lenders can drive sustainable growth by leveraging cashflow data.

Learn how cashflow data can help lenders:

• Expand market reach
• Uncover distinctive insights
• Improve predictive accuracy

The escalating trade war and rising economic uncertainty are causing businesses and lenders to adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing investment and hiring. If this trend continues, the economy could face long-term risks, including reduced lending, weaker job growth, and increased vulnerability to unemployment spikes. Insights include:

• Business investment was already slowing before the trade war, and uncertainty is now at an all-time high.
• Banks may tighten lending further due to rising business delinquency and unrealized losses in securities portfolios.
• The labor market, while stable, is struggling with low hiring rates, making it harder to absorb job seekers.
• A prolonged decline in business investment could trigger higher unemployment if layoffs accelerate.

In today’s fast-paced hiring landscape, background screeners face increasing pressure to deliver faster, more accurate, and fully compliant verifications. With over 50% of employment verifications still requiring manual intervention, staying ahead requires innovative solutions.

Key takeaways:

• Key trends shaping the future of background screening
• The value of digitally- native instant, consumer-permissioned and research-based verifications streamlining manual workloads.
• How advancements in Generative AI are transforming traditional research verifications and reducing dependence on call centers.

Watch this on-demand webinar featuring Experian experts Joy Mina and Troy Hupp as they explore how AI-enhanced, instant, and consumer-permissioned solutions are transforming background screening.

Reaching the right consumers with credit offerings can be challenging without the right technology. Our optimized prescreen model and strategy service, Ascend Intelligence Services™ Target, can help organizations identify consumers who meet credit offer criteria, increasing the likelihood of positive responses.

With access to Experian’s historical data, financial institutions can:

• Identify the consumers who meet their credit criteria 
  
• Increase the likelihood of positive responses to their offers 
  
• Get the most ROI out of their marketing campaigns while staying within budget

By optimizing their prescreen strategies, organizations can reach more of the right consumers to grow their customers bases and drive revenue.

In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months​. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

As we step into 2025, all eyes remain on the trajectory of inflation, the resilience in consumer spending and continued affordability challenges in the housing market. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.

Explore the latest advancements in income and employment verification methods in the mortgage industry. This whitepaper, created in partnership with National Mortgage News, highlights the benefits of instant verification, addresses common pain points, and provides insights from industry professionals. Learn how innovative tools like Experian Verify can enhance customer experience, improve operational efficiency, and offer transparent pricing.