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Report
Published February 22, 2022
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic TrendsThe fourth quarter of 2021 enhanced the pressure felt by small businesses as the largest wave of COVID-19 hit the US. In addition to the effects of pandemic outbreak of labor and consumer engagement, an inflationary surge, largest increase since 1982, coupled with pandemic-related supply-and-demand imbalances, weighed heavily on US small businesses along with a notable impact to consumer sentiment.
Although workers were getting raises in the currently tight job market, rapid price increases are eroding consumers' earning power. Average wage earnings went up by 4.0% in Q4 '21 vs. the previous year, yet a 7.5% increase in inflation results in a net decline in real earnings. Workers' money is not going as far as it used to. Rising wages, however, put pressure on businesses' payrolls who may be forced to pass those costs to consumers.
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As we head into the holiday season, Experian’s latest Commercial Pulse Report reveals significant trends shaping the retail sector:
🔹 25% increase in credit demand among retail businesses, as companies boost inventory for expected holiday sales.
🔹 Discretionary retail sectors like home goods face tighter lending, while Consumer Electronics and Department Stores are nearing pre-pandemic credit levels.
🔹 Retail delinquency rates and charge-offs are rising, putting pressure on commercial credit scores.
These insights highlight both opportunities and challenges for retailers navigating today’s economy. Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
The better-than-expected September Jobs Report adds to the list of data that suggests the U.S. economy is heading for a soft landing. While challenges remain, the current backdrop is one of strong economic activity, a solid labor market, and a more accommodative Fed. Get North America Chief Economist Joseph Mayans’ charts and key takeaways on recent developments.
Explore Gen Z's habits and attitudes toward credit, personal finance, marketing, fraud and more.
Gen Z fast facts:
They demand the creation of more opportunities for people of diverse and underrepresented backgrounds. Lack of financial resources and funding options are seen as barriers in achieving their goals.
Source: Statista, McKinsey & Company.
As the U.S. economy cools, small businesses face the dual pressures of year-end operations and the holiday season. Consumer spending has exceeded expectations, driven by savings depletion and increased reliance on credit, particularly among Gen Z—a trend raising concerns about long-term credit health. However, rising costs for essential expenses are beginning to constrain spending power, alongside slowing consumer sentiment ahead of an election cycle marked by uncertainty. Despite these challenges, small businesses are preparing for the holidays with optimism, building inventories to capture year-end growth. Credit markets remain accessible, with looser lending criteria offering a supportive backdrop. As the economy aims for a soft landing, small businesses have a chance to close the year on a positive note.
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