Q1 2024 Experian Economics Main Street Report

The escalating trade war and rising economic uncertainty are causing businesses and lenders to adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing investment and hiring. If this trend continues, the economy could face long-term risks, including reduced lending, weaker job growth, and increased vulnerability to unemployment spikes. Insights include:

• Business investment was already slowing before the trade war, and uncertainty is now at an all-time high.
• Banks may tighten lending further due to rising business delinquency and unrealized losses in securities portfolios.
• The labor market, while stable, is struggling with low hiring rates, making it harder to absorb job seekers.
• A prolonged decline in business investment could trigger higher unemployment if layoffs accelerate.

In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months​. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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As we step into 2025, all eyes remain on the trajectory of inflation, the resilience in consumer spending and continued affordability challenges in the housing market. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.

While the U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, the labor market remains solid and consumers are well-positioned, there remain a few challenges ahead in 2025 that could cloud the economic outlook including potential inflationary pressures and continued affordability issues in the housing market. As these trends play out over the course of the year, businesses must stay on top of the latest economic developments.

Experian’s Chief UK Economist Mohammed Chaudhri’s latest report shares his forecast for the rest of the year and beyond with insights into the latest economic trends and developments.