Report
Report
Published November 8, 2021
Commercial Credit & Economic Trends Commercial InsightsSmall business credit performance was mixed in the third quarter as businesses dealt with the COVID-19 Delta variant. Early stage delinquency rates rose modestly while late state delinquency and bankruptcy rates fell decisively. With daily COVID cases falling, demand for goods and services should rise in coming quarters. Downside risks are concentrated on the supply side with businesses struggling to hire workers and dealing with supply chain stress.
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𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁!
While job satisfaction remains high ⭐, 𝟭 𝗶𝗻 𝟰 𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘆𝗲𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 ⚠️.
Also, union membership is at a historic low—𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟵.𝟵%—but public support is rising, especially among younger workers. These dynamics are reshaping employer-employee relationships, with big implications for small businesses.
𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀:
✔️ Inflation cooled to 2.8%
✔️ 228K jobs added in March
✔️ Unemployment rose to 4.2%
✔️ Consumer sentiment dipped to its lowest since 2022
Small businesses continue to show resilience, with optimism inching up and business starts outpacing pre-pandemic levels.
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With the recent Fed announcement and fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon, it’s time to posture your organization more defensively. Where to start? A portfolio management activity that is often overlooked is the accuracy behind classifying fraud and credit risk.
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In our Q1 Lending Conditions Chartbook, we break down the latest economic trends and dive deep into credit conditions across products and regions.
Insights include: