Report
As small businesses prepare for growth - tariffs take center stage
Published December 3, 2024
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
The U.S. (United States) has been in a state of suspended animation from a small business perspective. The domestic election cycle was full of promises focused on government spending to resolve consumer and small business perceived challenges for the next four years. As we emerge from the election cycle, with a clean transition expected, what rhetoric will become a reality is creating uncertainty among lenders and small businesses. Macroeconomic indicators are leaning positive, while stubborn inflation increases prices and borrowing costs. Lenders are targeting a looser environment for underwriting as cashflows remain positive and small businesses feel the rush of holiday shopping. Growth is coming in 2025; the question is how quickly companies can prepare and maneuver through the next 6 months of policy and global volatility.
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5 Key Trends to Watch in 2025
While all eyes are on the impact of tariffs, immigration policy, and other proposals coming out of the new administration, the five key trends that I’ll be watching in 2025 have been playing out over the last couple of years and will be important to how the economy and lending market unfolds in the year ahead.
Trends include:
- The slowdown in the “white-collar” job market
- The stabilization of consumer delinquency
- The letting up of lending standard tightening
Report
State of Credit Unions Report
Experian's State of Credit Unions Report explores data-driven credit trends in the credit union space, with a particular focus on auto loans, unsecured personal loans and unsecured credit cards.
Take a deep dive into:
- Trends in originations and delinquencies among credit union members
- How credit unions fare against other financial institutions
- Strategies to attract new members and mitigate portfolio risk
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Unemployment down, rate cuts on hold
This week's Commercial Pulse Report highlights key economic trends and small business credit conditions, providing insights for lenders, risk professionals, and business leaders.
The U.S. economy continues to face high interest rates and shifting market conditions:
- Inflation rose to 2.9% in December, marking its third consecutive increase and the highest level since July 2024.
- Unemployment declined to 4.0% in January, the lowest level since April 2024, but job growth slowed, with only 143K jobs added.
- Q4 GDP grew at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q3, indicating a moderate but slowing expansion.
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.
This report features the latest findings from the Experian Small Business Index™, a data-driven tool tracking small business financial health.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!