Report
Report
Published December 3, 2024
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market InsightsThe U.S. (United States) has been in a state of suspended animation from a small business perspective. The domestic election cycle was full of promises focused on government spending to resolve consumer and small business perceived challenges for the next four years. As we emerge from the election cycle, with a clean transition expected, what rhetoric will become a reality is creating uncertainty among lenders and small businesses. Macroeconomic indicators are leaning positive, while stubborn inflation increases prices and borrowing costs. Lenders are targeting a looser environment for underwriting as cashflows remain positive and small businesses feel the rush of holiday shopping. Growth is coming in 2025; the question is how quickly companies can prepare and maneuver through the next 6 months of policy and global volatility.
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This week’s Commercial Pulse Report from Experian reveals critical shifts in the economy for small businesses. Inflation eased slightly to 2.8%, and the Small Business Index ticked up to 41.5—signs of stabilization. But rising financial fraud remains a major concern. Also:
🔒 70% increase in fraud since the pandemic
🧠 $40B in projected losses from AI-driven scams by 2027
📊 46% of SMB loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud
Lenders are responding with AI-powered analytics and cross-industry collaboration to stay ahead of these threats.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
The escalating trade war and rising economic uncertainty are causing businesses and lenders to adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing investment and hiring. If this trend continues, the economy could face long-term risks, including reduced lending, weaker job growth, and increased vulnerability to unemployment spikes. Insights include:
In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing
The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
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