Welcome to the Experian Thought Leadership Hub

With the recent Fed announcement and fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon, it’s time to posture your organization more defensively. Where to start? A portfolio management activity that is often overlooked is the accuracy behind classifying fraud and credit risk.

Join our experts for an insightful webinar where they’ll review:

• The state of the Credit Card industry
• The value of performing lookback reviews – beyond accuracy
• Credit tools to help your portfolio management strategies

In our Q1 Lending Conditions Chartbook, we break down the latest economic trends and dive deep into credit conditions across products and regions.

Insights include:

• The labor market appears on decent footing but there are signs of slowing.
• Credit growth remains subdued and is running below its pre-pandemic average as financial institutions maintain tight lending standards and interest rates remain elevated.
• Looking at origination activity, there has been a meaningful pickup among fintechs and in unsecured personal loans.

The escalating trade war and rising economic uncertainty are causing businesses and lenders to adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing investment and hiring. If this trend continues, the economy could face long-term risks, including reduced lending, weaker job growth, and increased vulnerability to unemployment spikes. Insights include:

• Business investment was already slowing before the trade war, and uncertainty is now at an all-time high.
• Banks may tighten lending further due to rising business delinquency and unrealized losses in securities portfolios.
• The labor market, while stable, is struggling with low hiring rates, making it harder to absorb job seekers.
• A prolonged decline in business investment could trigger higher unemployment if layoffs accelerate.

In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months​. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

As we step into 2025, all eyes remain on the trajectory of inflation, the resilience in consumer spending and continued affordability challenges in the housing market. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.

In this episode, we discuss the growing economic crosswinds affecting small businesses, recent employment trends, consumer spending patterns, and the impressive growth of minority-owned businesses in the U.S. We highlight the challenges and opportunities these businesses face, particularly in accessing needed capital.

📌 41% of new commercial accounts are minority-owned, yet access to capital remains a barrier.

📌 44% of minority-owned businesses are less than six years old, showing strong entrepreneurial momentum.

📌 Industries like retail, construction, and healthcare are fueling this expansion.

For lenders, this represents an untapped market and a business opportunity with high growth potential.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

Explore state-level and industry level data that banks, credit unions and fintechs can leverage to track the downturn and be correctly positioned for the recovery in this monthly report.

This week's Commercial Pulse Report highlights key economic trends and small business credit conditions, providing insights for lenders, risk professionals, and business leaders.

The U.S. economy continues to face high interest rates and shifting market conditions:

• Inflation rose to 2.9% in December, marking its third consecutive increase and the highest level since July 2024.
• Unemployment declined to 4.0% in January, the lowest level since April 2024, but job growth slowed, with only 143K jobs added.
• Q4 GDP grew at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q3, indicating a moderate but slowing expansion.
• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.

This report features the latest findings from the Experian Small Business Index™, a data-driven tool tracking small business financial health.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

Subscribe to Commercial Pulse Report

In an era of economic uncertainty, resilience can seem out of reach, but Gen Z is flipping the script. Watch this webinar to explore:

• Key credit trends and behaviors shaping Gen Z
• Their perspectives on personal finance and aspirations for the future
• How organizations can better support and engage this dynamic cohort