Welcome to the Experian Thought Leadership Hub

The escalating trade war and rising economic uncertainty are causing businesses and lenders to adopt a cautious approach, potentially slowing investment and hiring. If this trend continues, the economy could face long-term risks, including reduced lending, weaker job growth, and increased vulnerability to unemployment spikes. Insights include:

• Business investment was already slowing before the trade war, and uncertainty is now at an all-time high.
• Banks may tighten lending further due to rising business delinquency and unrealized losses in securities portfolios.
• The labor market, while stable, is struggling with low hiring rates, making it harder to absorb job seekers.
• A prolonged decline in business investment could trigger higher unemployment if layoffs accelerate.

In today’s fast-paced hiring landscape, background screeners face increasing pressure to deliver faster, more accurate, and fully compliant verifications. With over 50% of employment verifications still requiring manual intervention, staying ahead requires innovative solutions.

Key takeaways:

• Key trends shaping the future of background screening
• The value of digitally- native instant, consumer-permissioned and research-based verifications streamlining manual workloads.
• How advancements in Generative AI are transforming traditional research verifications and reducing dependence on call centers.

Watch this on-demand webinar featuring Experian experts Joy Mina and Troy Hupp as they explore how AI-enhanced, instant, and consumer-permissioned solutions are transforming background screening.

Reaching the right consumers with credit offerings can be challenging without the right technology. Our optimized prescreen model and strategy service, Ascend Intelligence Services™ Target, can help organizations identify consumers who meet credit offer criteria, increasing the likelihood of positive responses.

With access to Experian’s historical data, financial institutions can:

• Identify the consumers who meet their credit criteria 
  
• Increase the likelihood of positive responses to their offers 
  
• Get the most ROI out of their marketing campaigns while staying within budget

By optimizing their prescreen strategies, organizations can reach more of the right consumers to grow their customers bases and drive revenue.

In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing

The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months​. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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As we step into 2025, all eyes remain on the trajectory of inflation, the resilience in consumer spending and continued affordability challenges in the housing market. Discover our experts' insights on how they anticipate the economic landscape to evolve throughout 2025, as they delve into the latest trends and forecasts.

Explore the latest advancements in income and employment verification methods in the mortgage industry. This whitepaper, created in partnership with National Mortgage News, highlights the benefits of instant verification, addresses common pain points, and provides insights from industry professionals. Learn how innovative tools like Experian Verify can enhance customer experience, improve operational efficiency, and offer transparent pricing.

While the U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, the labor market remains solid and consumers are well-positioned, there remain a few challenges ahead in 2025 that could cloud the economic outlook including potential inflationary pressures and continued affordability issues in the housing market. As these trends play out over the course of the year, businesses must stay on top of the latest economic developments.

Experian’s Chief UK Economist Mohammed Chaudhri’s latest report shares his forecast for the rest of the year and beyond with insights into the latest economic trends and developments.

In this episode, we discuss the growing economic crosswinds affecting small businesses, recent employment trends, consumer spending patterns, and the impressive growth of minority-owned businesses in the U.S. We highlight the challenges and opportunities these businesses face, particularly in accessing needed capital.

📌 41% of new commercial accounts are minority-owned, yet access to capital remains a barrier.

📌 44% of minority-owned businesses are less than six years old, showing strong entrepreneurial momentum.

📌 Industries like retail, construction, and healthcare are fueling this expansion.

For lenders, this represents an untapped market and a business opportunity with high growth potential.

Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!

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Key themes and emerging trends shaping financial services in 2025, using research and insight from leading industry analysts. Themes include:

• Fraud evolution driven by AI
  
• AI will play a transformative role in banking
  
• Emergence of RegTech
  
• Convergence of risk management