Report
Published December 1, 2022
Commercial Commercial InsightsThe US economy grew a buoyant 2.6% annualized in Q3, confirming Experian and Oxford Economics' view that the economy was not in recession. Indeed, the economy created a robust 261k jobs in October, while the unemployment rate came in near a historically low of 3.7%. Higher borrowing costs will weigh on corporate profits, hiring, and business investment. The consumer will feel the effects of an increase in unemployment and a reduction in excess savings. Download the full report to learn more.
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Video
A Growing Small Business Financial Fraud Problem
This week’s Commercial Pulse Report from Experian reveals critical shifts in the economy for small businesses. Inflation eased slightly to 2.8%, and the Small Business Index ticked up to 41.5—signs of stabilization. But rising financial fraud remains a major concern. Also:
🔒 70% increase in fraud since the pandemic
🧠 $40B in projected losses from AI-driven scams by 2027
📊 46% of SMB loan applications showed signs of first-party fraud
Lenders are responding with AI-powered analytics and cross-industry collaboration to stay ahead of these threats.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
Video
Small Businesses Driving a Manufacturing Comeback
In this week's video we touch on current small business macroeconomic conditions as well as share insights on the manufacturing
The U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a period of contraction for more than two years, but recent data suggests that a turning point may be on the horizon. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reached 50.9 in January, breaking past the critical 50-point threshold for the first time in 26 months. This indicates that manufacturing activity is shifting from contraction to expansion, a positive sign for small businesses that have been a major driver of growth in the sector.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
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Video
A $2 trillion opportunity with minority-owned small businesses
In this episode, we discuss the growing economic crosswinds affecting small businesses, recent employment trends, consumer spending patterns, and the impressive growth of minority-owned businesses in the U.S. We highlight the challenges and opportunities these businesses face, particularly in accessing needed capital.
📌 41% of new commercial accounts are minority-owned, yet access to capital remains a barrier.
📌 44% of minority-owned businesses are less than six years old, showing strong entrepreneurial momentum.
📌 Industries like retail, construction, and healthcare are fueling this expansion.
For lenders, this represents an untapped market and a business opportunity with high growth potential.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!
Video
Unemployment down, rate cuts on hold
This week's Commercial Pulse Report highlights key economic trends and small business credit conditions, providing insights for lenders, risk professionals, and business leaders.
The U.S. economy continues to face high interest rates and shifting market conditions:
- Inflation rose to 2.9% in December, marking its third consecutive increase and the highest level since July 2024.
- Unemployment declined to 4.0% in January, the lowest level since April 2024, but job growth slowed, with only 143K jobs added.
- Q4 GDP grew at 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q3, indicating a moderate but slowing expansion.
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, reinforcing concerns about persistent inflation.
This report features the latest findings from the Experian Small Business Index™, a data-driven tool tracking small business financial health.
Check out the full report to see how these trends could impact your strategy!